Started By
Message
2021 Alabama Returning Production - A Study of the Last 7 Seasons
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:19 pm
I went back to 2015 to calculate how much returning production we had to (a) get a firm number from each year, as we all have strange memories that don't always remember specifics and (b) see if that actually translated to anything.
The Offensive metrics used are (how they make up the Total Avg)
- Passing Yards (27.5%)
- Rushing Yards (22.5%)
- Receiving Yards (22.5%)
- Total OL Snaps (27.5%)
The Defensive metrics used are (how they make up the Total Avg)
- Tackles (35%)
- QB Pressures (15%)
- TFLs (15%)
- Coverage Snaps (35%)
Then at the bottom, I did a general "Total Average", which isn't mathematically or statistically sound, but it gives a general idea. Out to the right is the (A) Prior year Yards Per Play Rank in the SEC (vs P5 teams) and (B) That Years Yards Per Play Rank in the SEC (vs P5 teams). This should show whether there was an improvement or not.
The Offensive metrics used are (how they make up the Total Avg)
- Passing Yards (27.5%)
- Rushing Yards (22.5%)
- Receiving Yards (22.5%)
- Total OL Snaps (27.5%)
The Defensive metrics used are (how they make up the Total Avg)
- Tackles (35%)
- QB Pressures (15%)
- TFLs (15%)
- Coverage Snaps (35%)
Then at the bottom, I did a general "Total Average", which isn't mathematically or statistically sound, but it gives a general idea. Out to the right is the (A) Prior year Yards Per Play Rank in the SEC (vs P5 teams) and (B) That Years Yards Per Play Rank in the SEC (vs P5 teams). This should show whether there was an improvement or not.
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 3:28 pm
2
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Takeaways for 2021
- The line from rivals that we are losing "everyone" ala post-2019 LSU is laughably untrue.
- 2021 will be by far the most we return across the board on defense since at least 2015. It should be an elite unit.
- 2021 will be the least we return across the board on offense since at least 2015.
- The closest parallel to 2021 is 2015 - but I think we'd all agree the roster in 2021 is more stacked across position groups than it was in 2015.
- The other teams > 54% returned went a combined 40-2, won 2 of 3 national titles and lost in the title game of the 3rd.
- On defense, the only 2 seasons where we got worse than the prior-year in terms of SEC YPP Allowed were 2019 and 2018 - the 2 seasons with the lowest returning production from the prior year (2018 35.3%, 2019 43.5%)
Other Odds and Ends
- 2017 should have been an all-time great season, and the Tua led team in the 2nd half against Georgia showed what could have been. That team returned so much, and yet shows that if your QB isn't really good......it really doesn't matter. It's the only year on the entire list where we returned >50% of production on either side of the ball and got worse in YPP Rank (and it was much worse).
- Lane Kiffin is a frickin magician for what he did in 2015 and 2016 on offense. Goodness.
- The line from rivals that we are losing "everyone" ala post-2019 LSU is laughably untrue.
- 2021 will be by far the most we return across the board on defense since at least 2015. It should be an elite unit.
- 2021 will be the least we return across the board on offense since at least 2015.
- The closest parallel to 2021 is 2015 - but I think we'd all agree the roster in 2021 is more stacked across position groups than it was in 2015.
- The other teams > 54% returned went a combined 40-2, won 2 of 3 national titles and lost in the title game of the 3rd.
- On defense, the only 2 seasons where we got worse than the prior-year in terms of SEC YPP Allowed were 2019 and 2018 - the 2 seasons with the lowest returning production from the prior year (2018 35.3%, 2019 43.5%)
Other Odds and Ends
- 2017 should have been an all-time great season, and the Tua led team in the 2nd half against Georgia showed what could have been. That team returned so much, and yet shows that if your QB isn't really good......it really doesn't matter. It's the only year on the entire list where we returned >50% of production on either side of the ball and got worse in YPP Rank (and it was much worse).
- Lane Kiffin is a frickin magician for what he did in 2015 and 2016 on offense. Goodness.
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Awesome stuff. Thanks!
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 3:30 pm
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:27 pm to auisssa
Thanks man 
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
2017 should have been an all-time great season, and the Tua led team in the 2nd half against Georgia showed what could have been. That teams returned so much, and yet shows that if your QB isn't really good......it really doesn't matter.
Yep, Saban was so damn stubborn that year and it almost cost him a national championship.
If Tua get the starting job around midseason, he would have been seasoned enough for the Iron Bowl. Bama beats Auburn, then beats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and knocks Georgia out of the playoffs.
Bama is the 1 seed and plays Ohio St in the Sugar Bowl, Bama would have gotten Oklahoma in the National Championship Game.
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:43 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Agreed on Kiffin. What he did with Jake Coker and the lack of depth at wide receiver that year was nothing short of amazing. Also, that offensive line did not have the quality depth that 2021 will have even if some of it is young. Our wide receiver and running back depth dwarfs 2015. The defense should be dynamic. Maybe the deepest ever on paper. It also helps to have the nation's best place kicker in Will Reichard.
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:48 pm to bamatide07
quote:
Agreed on Kiffin. What he did with Jake Coker and the lack of depth at wide receiver that year was nothing short of amazing. Also, that offensive line did not have the quality depth that 2021 will have even if some of it is young. Our wide receiver and running back depth dwarfs 2015. The defense should be dynamic. Maybe the deepest ever on paper. It also helps to have the nation's best place kicker in Will Reichard.
Correct - the difference in 2015 and 2021 is exactly what you just laid out
- The best returning receiving weapons for Alabama in 2015 were OJ Howard (260 yds) and ArDarius Stewart (149 yards). We added 1 elite freshman (Calvin Ridley). This year we return Metchie, Bolden, and Billingsley and bring in 4 elite freshmen (on paper), plus have 2-3 guys on campus who everything believes are solid SEC players.
- Our QB options were, as we all know, not great to start the year. Coker turned into an absolute gamer legend by November, but the start of the season was scary. Bryce is uber-talented, but obviously "on paper".
- That offense did, however, have Derek Henry. We have a loaded RB room full of solid players, but Derek Henry is Derek Henry.
And, yea, I don't think anyone has really noticed how much we are returning on defense. It's pretty insane. We almost always lose depth guys or have a position group that gets decimated.
We return ALL the depth guys and don't have any position group that loses more than 1 guy. The talent, competition, and experience at all 3 levels is literally something we've never had under Saban.
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 3:55 pm
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The offense will be green but my goodness the raw talent is insane. In 2015, it was Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake. Two great players obviously but this team will have way more depth at running back. Drake was banged up a lot of that season and Henry carried the offense. OJ Howard was a generational talent at tight end and we don't have someone like that now but Billingsley is talented in his own right. The offensive line will have a couple of new faces but there are five star guys waiting to compete. At wide receiver, yes we lose DeVonta but there is still a lot of elite talent returning and coming in. Whoever is hired to coach the offense could make this another Championship team if they play their cards right. I'm very excited.
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 3:58 pm
Posted on 1/17/21 at 3:56 pm to bamatide07
quote:
The offense will be green but my goodness the raw talent is insane. In 2015, it was Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake. Two great players obviously but this team will have way more depth at running back. Drake was banged up a lot of that season and Henry carried the offense. OJ Howard was a generational talent at tight end and we don't have someone like that now but Billingsley is talented in his own right. The offensive line will have a couple of new faces but there are five star guys waiting to compete. I'm very excited.
I 100% agree - and all those faults on the 2015 team are the reasons I love them so much. They were not a typical elite better talent than everyone else team(especially on offense). They just found a way to win for the last 12 games, and a lot of times it wasn't pretty, but they just won.
Posted on 1/17/21 at 4:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The wide receiver group in 2015 consisted of Calvin Ridley, a true freshman, Ardarius Stewart and Richard Mullany. That's it. 2021 will be loaded at receiver by comparison. That 2015 team was also one of my favorites. Everyone wrote them off after the Ole Miss loss and they won out the rest of the way. It was such a massive Championship year.
Posted on 1/17/21 at 4:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
The line from rivals that we are losing "everyone" ala post-2019 LSU is laughably untrue.
Pretty sure it's only the lowest common denominator Auburn fans and all the corndogs who actually believe this. Past results aren't proof of future performance, but there's at least a correlation. And Saban has a track record going back over a decade now of reloading every year. So it's possible that we aren't very good next year, but it's unlikely. In fact, the only realistic way I can see it happening is if Bryce is a total bust. We have 2.5 OL starters coming back, our #2 WR for most of the season, our best TE, and our #2 RB plus a couple of freshmen who looked good. The defense will be talented and experienced at every level. As long as Bryce is decent we will be pretty damn good.
Posted on 1/17/21 at 4:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The key to 2021 will be keeping Bryce Young healthy. There really isn't anyone behind him except Paul Tyson and the freshman Milroe.
Posted on 1/17/21 at 4:10 pm to Robot Santa
Alabama loses DeVonta Smith and Najee on offense. For most teams that would be a death nail. Not for Alabama. Alabama has recruited so well at both spots and returns players who have in game experience. Slade Bolden, Metchie, Xavier Williams and Javon Baker. One thing to monitor is Trey Sanders recovery. I really hope that he can get back to his old self and fulfill his recruiting hype. He was looking the part before the car wreck.
This post was edited on 1/17/21 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 1/18/21 at 8:50 am to bamatide07
Yea, offense will be very fun to follow. Gonna be some real growing pains comparatively, but a lot of young talent.
I'm probably setting myself up for dissapointment defensively but man that's exciting.
I'm probably setting myself up for dissapointment defensively but man that's exciting.
Posted on 1/18/21 at 9:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
Will Nick try and bring in another QB before spring or even after spring? That would send a message even though you need at least 4 guys (not counting walk-ons) but who can keep that many QB's happy these days.
Posted on 1/18/21 at 9:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
I love having you here to run the numbers for us - much appreciated
Posted on 1/18/21 at 9:16 am to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
maybe i'm off on this. but wasn't the 2 lesser productive years, also the same years saban had filled his asst coaches with recruiters? maybe the production suffered because of that, maybe, or at the least contributed to it.
Posted on 1/18/21 at 9:27 am to crimsontater
quote:
maybe i'm off on this. but wasn't the 2 lesser productive years, also the same years saban had filled his asst coaches with recruiters? maybe the production suffered because of that, maybe, or at the least contributed to it.
You could come up with a % coaching turnover - make the coordinator 50% or something, then remaining assistants on offense & defense the remaining 50%. Then take that composite and weight it like 30% to the returning player production 75% to get an all encompassing percentage.
If someone wants to take the time to do that ...
Page 1 of 1
Latest Alabama News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News