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#1 Alabama vs #19 LSU - Prediction Model
Posted on 10/30/17 at 9:57 am
Posted on 10/30/17 at 9:57 am
#1 Alabama (-21.5) vs #19 LSU (8 PM EST, CBS)
#1 Alabama : 34
#19 LSU : 12
Alabama
439 total yards
271 rush yards
169 pass yards
5.94 YPP
LSU
256 total yards
79 rush yards
178 pass yards
4.21 YPP
The actual point total was Alabama 33.55 - 11.85, which is a difference of 21.70 pts. Consider the spread is 21.50, there ya go.
Just for comparison
- S&P+ prediction : Alabama 34-16
- Sagarin prediction : Alabama 35-9
#1 Alabama : 34
#19 LSU : 12
Alabama
439 total yards
271 rush yards
169 pass yards
5.94 YPP
LSU
256 total yards
79 rush yards
178 pass yards
4.21 YPP
The actual point total was Alabama 33.55 - 11.85, which is a difference of 21.70 pts. Consider the spread is 21.50, there ya go.
Just for comparison
- S&P+ prediction : Alabama 34-16
- Sagarin prediction : Alabama 35-9
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 10:04 am
Posted on 10/30/17 at 10:02 am to SummerOfGeorge
I would love for this game to be over at halftime.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 10:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
So what you are saying is don't bet this game with a 21.5 line.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 10:17 am to elposter
quote:
So what you are saying is don't bet this game with a 21.5 line.
What I am saying is there is a reason the line is set at 21.5
Posted on 10/30/17 at 10:19 am to SummerOfGeorge
I hope Guice eats sh*t for talking mess. We shutdown Fournette every year but this guy must have short term memory.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 11:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
Bama = 38
LSU = 21
I know LSU is thin in depth in some places and inexperienced up front in others, but the fact is that it is still LSU and this is there National Title game. Every game they play, whether its a lost to Troy or a win against Auburn, the first question that is asked is "What do we have to do better to beat Bama???" They will not roll over and die and I expect them to have a lot of tricks up there sleeves and be ready for us. We win but I think its a typical knock down, drag out going into the 4th quarter when we pull away! RTR
LSU = 21
I know LSU is thin in depth in some places and inexperienced up front in others, but the fact is that it is still LSU and this is there National Title game. Every game they play, whether its a lost to Troy or a win against Auburn, the first question that is asked is "What do we have to do better to beat Bama???" They will not roll over and die and I expect them to have a lot of tricks up there sleeves and be ready for us. We win but I think its a typical knock down, drag out going into the 4th quarter when we pull away! RTR
Posted on 10/30/17 at 11:59 am to Crimsongreatness15
quote:
Bama = 38
LSU = 21
If they score 21 points, I will be SHOCKED.
Since 2008, they've only scored 21 twice, and the last time they did that was in 2010. They haven't scored more than 17 in Ttown since 2007. Usually I don't buy into past statistics having any bearing on the current year, but with that offense, I can't see this being the year that they reach 21.
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 10/30/17 at 12:37 pm to Funky Tide 8
quote:
If they score 21 points, I will be SHOCKED.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 1:02 pm to SummerOfGeorge
31-10 sounds pretty accurate.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 2:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Well George has been dead on so I'll go with this and not think about it lol.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 2:40 pm to CrimsonBoz
quote:
Well George has been dead on so I'll go with this and not think about it lol.
He has, and if this one holds up it will be a pretty enjoyable Saturday.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 2:42 pm to JustGetItRight
I want to reiterate that this model is really just giving an idea of how a team has performed relative to their opponents YPP averages and then taking that and applying it to the weekly opponents YPP averages. On top of that it can't account for a large turnover margin or stops in the Red Zone (though it does historically do that through Points per Yard) or some big injury or whatever.
Long story short, it just gives an idea of basically "if both teams play their average game based on past results what will the score be".
SO DON'T MURDER ME WHEN THE FINAL SCORE IS 16-13.
Long story short, it just gives an idea of basically "if both teams play their average game based on past results what will the score be".
SO DON'T MURDER ME WHEN THE FINAL SCORE IS 16-13.
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 10/30/17 at 2:43 pm to JustGetItRight
I will be shocked if we score in the 30s. We always play tight and conservative against them. And they do their part to hold the offense in check. I expect more like a 23-10 game.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 2:53 pm to phil4bama
quote:
I will be shocked if we score in the 30s. We always play tight and conservative against them.
We've scored 30+ pts the last 2 times we've played LSU in Tuscaloosa (30 in 2015, 38 in 2013).
We play decidedly more loose offensively at home against them than we do on the road.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 2:54 pm to phil4bama
quote:
I will be shocked if we score in the 30s. We always play tight and conservative against them. And they do their part to hold the offense in check. I expect more like a 23-10 game.
We've scored 30+ the last two times we've played them in Tuscaloosa.
Not saying that I would be surprised if we scored less than 30, but I certainly would not be shocked if we scored in the 30s.
eta: George beat me to it.
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 3:00 pm
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:13 pm to Funky Tide 8
If I were setting the O/U line for Bama points scored, I'd set it at 30.
I'd also bet the over.
It is LSU and I know they're going to play hard but in 4 SEC games played thus far, the only foe they've held under 5 yards per carry is Auburn.
What they defend the worst is what Bama does best. It just sets up for a long night for them.
Edited to add - While the Auburn win was a nice job, let's not overlook the fact that they got boatraced by MSU, needed a botched PAT to beat Florida, and were in a 7 point game with Ole Miss until the last 3:00 of the 3rd quarter.
The common thread in those three gams is that they were all on the road. Thus far they have significantly underperformed away from home.
I'd also bet the over.
It is LSU and I know they're going to play hard but in 4 SEC games played thus far, the only foe they've held under 5 yards per carry is Auburn.
What they defend the worst is what Bama does best. It just sets up for a long night for them.
Edited to add - While the Auburn win was a nice job, let's not overlook the fact that they got boatraced by MSU, needed a botched PAT to beat Florida, and were in a 7 point game with Ole Miss until the last 3:00 of the 3rd quarter.
The common thread in those three gams is that they were all on the road. Thus far they have significantly underperformed away from home.
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:20 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
It is LSU and I know they're going to play hard but in 4 SEC games played thus far, the only foe they've held under 5 yards per carry is Auburn.
Yep - and that's what the model sees. We've only gone under our opponents YPC against average 2 times vs P5 teams : 0.05 less against FSU (4.12 vs 4.17) and 0.89 against Tennessee (5.13 vs 6.02 in a game in which they sold out to stop the run).
LSU gives up 4.85 YPC vs P5 teams. And, even though they've played better all around lately, their run defense has not.
- 5.11 YPC vs Florida
- 4.30 YPC vs Auburn
- 5.46 YPC vs Ole Miss
The only teams they've held under 3.00 YPC this year were BYU, Chattanooga and Syracuse. BYU is 90th in YPA nationally, Chattanooga 1AA and Syracuse 93rd.
Long story short, if things play to norms, we should consistently be in 2nd and 5 and 3rd and shorts. We are nearly unstoppable on offense when that happens.
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 3:22 pm
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
A little extra here - if you JUST use the stats from LSU's last 3 games (Florida, Auburn, Ole Miss), here is the result you get........
#1 Alabama : 33
#19 LSU : 14
Alabama
438 total yards
272 rush yards
166 pass yards
5.92 YPP
LSU
304 total yards
98 rush yards
206 pass yards
4.99 YPP
Their offense has been better the last 3 weeks overall. Their defense really hasn't.
#1 Alabama : 33
#19 LSU : 14
Alabama
438 total yards
272 rush yards
166 pass yards
5.92 YPP
LSU
304 total yards
98 rush yards
206 pass yards
4.99 YPP
Their offense has been better the last 3 weeks overall. Their defense really hasn't.
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 10/30/17 at 4:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Etling doesn’t scare me. If he lights us up then we should shut down the program.
Guice has my attention because he’s a playmaker and a little more versatile than Fournette.
My concern is with Aranda & the LSU defense because they developed the blue print last year to defend Jalen and Jalen has struggled against defenses with a pulse.
We don’t need to screw around on offense again and keep them in the game well into the second half.
Guice has my attention because he’s a playmaker and a little more versatile than Fournette.
My concern is with Aranda & the LSU defense because they developed the blue print last year to defend Jalen and Jalen has struggled against defenses with a pulse.
We don’t need to screw around on offense again and keep them in the game well into the second half.
Posted on 10/30/17 at 4:35 pm to FairhopeTider
quote:
My concern is with Aranda & the LSU defense because they developed the blue print last year to defend Jalen and Jalen has struggled against defenses with a pulse. We don’t need to screw around on offense again and keep them in the game well into the second half.
This is where the rubber meets the road and we will see how much Jalen has progressed as a QB.
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