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re: What’s your prediction for number of wins for LSU football in 2024?
Posted on 5/14/24 at 10:39 am to cbree88
Posted on 5/14/24 at 10:39 am to cbree88
DraftKings has set lines for seven of LSU's games: LSU is favored in six of the seven games:
Week 1
LSU vs. USC in Las Vegas
Tigers favored by 6 points
Week 7
Ole Miss vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 2.5 points
Week 8
LSU at Arkansas in Fayetteville
Tigers favored by 9 points
Week 9
LSU at Texas A&M in College Station
Aggies favored by 3 points
Week 11
Alabama vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 1 point
Week 12
LSU at Florida in Gainesville
Tigers favored by 5.5 points
Week 14
Oklahoma vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 5 points
DraftKings
LSU should be favored in the remaining five games:
Week 2
NIcholls vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Week 3
LSU at South Carolina in Columbia
Week 4
UCLA vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
[LSU is favored by 6 over USC; USC is favored by 4.5 over UCLA]
Week 5
South Alabama vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Week 13
Vanderbilt vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
A reasonable prediction would be that LSU goes 11-1.
Week 1
LSU vs. USC in Las Vegas
Tigers favored by 6 points
Week 7
Ole Miss vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 2.5 points
Week 8
LSU at Arkansas in Fayetteville
Tigers favored by 9 points
Week 9
LSU at Texas A&M in College Station
Aggies favored by 3 points
Week 11
Alabama vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 1 point
Week 12
LSU at Florida in Gainesville
Tigers favored by 5.5 points
Week 14
Oklahoma vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 5 points
DraftKings
LSU should be favored in the remaining five games:
Week 2
NIcholls vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Week 3
LSU at South Carolina in Columbia
Week 4
UCLA vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
[LSU is favored by 6 over USC; USC is favored by 4.5 over UCLA]
Week 5
South Alabama vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Week 13
Vanderbilt vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
A reasonable prediction would be that LSU goes 11-1.
This post was edited on 5/14/24 at 3:20 pm
1
Posted on 5/14/24 at 6:47 pm to Salviati
quote:
DraftKings has set lines for seven of LSU's games: LSU is favored in six of the seven games:
Week 1
LSU vs. USC in Las Vegas
Tigers favored by 6 points
Week 7
Ole Miss vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 2.5 points
Week 8
LSU at Arkansas in Fayetteville
Tigers favored by 9 points
Week 9
LSU at Texas A&M in College Station
Aggies favored by 3 points
Week 11
Alabama vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 1 point
Week 12
LSU at Florida in Gainesville
Tigers favored by 5.5 points
Week 14
Oklahoma vs. LSU in Tiger Stadium
Tigers favored by 5 points
quote:
A reasonable prediction would be that LSU goes 11-1.
Let me preface this by saying, first, I’m mostly optimistic about this year’s team. I think the defense improves tremendously with better scheme & coaching, and I think our offense will take a step back but still be able to compete with anyone we play.
That being said, 11-1 is nowhere near a reasonable expectation with those spreads. Being favored in 11 games does not mean that winning all 11 of those games is the most likely outcome.
If you play 10 games as a favorite with 70% win probability in each, the most likely outcome statistically is 7-3, not 10-0.
Just pointing out a statistical gripe I have with using chalk to project win totals.
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