Doc Fenton
Favorite team: | LSU |
Location: | New York, NY |
Biography: | |
Interests: | |
Occupation: | |
Number of Posts: | 52698 |
Registered on: | 2/27/2007 |
Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 4/29/19 at 6:15 pm
I was dreading the approach of this day.
[quote]If the markets go another 5% or so higher and exceed the Fall 2018 peak, then that will certainly be egg on my face[/quote]
The previous 2,940.91 high from 9/21/2018 has been surpassed. Egg on my face. I was wrong.
I still maintain my main the...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/30/19 at 12:30 pm
Good to see you again, and I didn't mean to get your heart rate up!...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/27/19 at 5:55 pm
It's always difficult to tell how much Fed officials are swayed by political pressure, but clearly the [i]60 Minutes[/i] appearance earlier this month demonstrates his concern for the need to project political legitimacy for his decision-making process.
The things that Fed officials say (includin...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/27/19 at 5:55 pm
Some thoughts of mine on the yield curve inversions, assisted by some recent tweets from the fintwit realm:
#1. The zero bound for the inversion signal is not a magic level. Logically speaking, it becomes much more difficult for poor future economic growth signals to cause a yield curve to invert...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/20/19 at 11:00 pm
The big news of the day was undoubtedly Powell's statements coming out of the Fed meeting. He seemed to take a softer tone on fighting inflation than perhaps a segment of the investing world was expecting, but the genuine news was his announcement that the Fed's balance sheet unwinding would be tape...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/20/19 at 11:00 pm
Well I appreciate that post, because it's important for any active investor to periodically make a critical reappraisal of where we are in the market cycle. Certainly, I've had a bad couple of months, and it's led me to go back and re-question my assumptions.
Having done that, however, I can't fi...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/11/19 at 11:33 pm
AAPL, +3.46%
AMZN, +3.07%
GOOG, +2.93%
NFLX, +2.65%
FB, +1.46%
Well I didn't see that coming. Helluva day for FAANG.
All while the terrible news on inventories and the underlying economy keep coming. Curious, to say the least....
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/10/19 at 6:45 pm
ForexLive at 7:34pm ET: "[link=(https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/china-asks-domestic-airlines-to-ground-boeing-737-max-20190310)]China asks domestic airlines to ground Boeing 737 MAX[/link]"
[quote][b]Caijing report[/b]
Boeing is going to face some pressure for a full-scale grounding until some ...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/10/19 at 12:50 pm
I don't know much about it, but I just looked through the recent stock history since Fall 2016, and man, that's crazy. [[b]EDIT:[/b] But I just now figured out that you were probably referring to this [link=(https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/10/ethiopian-airlines-flight-302-no-survivors-in-crash-of-boein...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/9/19 at 12:09 pm
Last week was also an interesting week for TSLA, GE, and DB, three of the stocks outside of FAANG that are most emblematic of the current environment.
Tesla, I don't even want to get into. What a shitshow.
GE came out with this on Tuesday: "[link=(https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/05/ge-shares-tumb...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 3/9/19 at 11:48 am
I look at it more as groups of investors bouncing back and forth between two competing narratives, which is what you would expect to happen in transition periods between bull and bear markets. (It's crazy how the market recovered at the end of trading yesterday and nearly reached its Thursday close....
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 2/25/19 at 9:31 pm
We have certainly approached an interesting inflection point.
On the one hand, we are now near the very top of the range of what most quantitative analysts have been telling us that a bear market rally could achieve. If the markets go another 5% or so higher and exceed the Fall 2018 peak, then th...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 2/17/19 at 1:07 pm
Meanwhile in the U.S. markets...
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzkHtwfXQAA0Pdp.jpg:large[/img]...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 2/17/19 at 1:06 pm
I honestly can't figure out what's happening in China right now. We have both the [link=(https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SSEC)]Shanghai[/link] and [link=(https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.HSI)]Hong Kong[/link] markets bottoming just before Powell's remarks on 1/4, and then taking a steady cl...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 2/15/19 at 7:13 am
Also... and this might be slightly inappropriate for this board, but... GAMEDAY BITCHES!!...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 2/14/19 at 6:14 pm
[quote]buybacks for life[/quote]
I wonder if we can get pioneerbasketball from the SEC Rant to make us a Team Buybacks bunchie avatar....
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 2/14/19 at 12:38 am
Well, hot damn. You are correct.
I may have had a fleeting thought about this before, but I never really worked through the implications, because for some reason I assumed the difference would never be big enough to matter that much. But it really does if Q1 growth and Q4 growth from the previous...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 2/13/19 at 7:43 pm
To get back on the subject of what's been driving the 4Q drops in the market (from 10/3/18 to 12/24/18) and the post-Christmas rally (from 12/24/18 to present), there have been a few interesting charts I've seen in recent days.
What we've been hearing from a lot of bulls in the financial media is...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 2/13/19 at 6:41 pm
You might need to check your math. From the latest spreadsheet that I downloaded from the BEA at Commerce, I calculate that only 2.2% annualized real GDP growth for the 4Q is required to achieve a 3.0% figure for all of 2018, assuming no other revisions of course.
Also, while I love dumping on Kr...
re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted by Doc Fenton on 2/12/19 at 9:31 pm
Dammit!! :angry:...
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