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re: Predict the score of each game next year

Posted on 4/28/15 at 2:33 pm to
Posted by dhuck20
SCLSU Fan
Member since Oct 2012
20285 posts
Posted on 4/28/15 at 2:33 pm to
Returning 11 starters, but DeShaun Watson should be very good and the defense was pretty good last year.
Posted by Broncothor
Member since Jul 2014
3050 posts
Posted on 4/29/15 at 9:23 am to
UGA - More than 27 points every game
Opponents - Less than 24 points every game.
Posted by Gainesville_Dawg
Gainesville, GA
Member since Jan 2015
298 posts
Posted on 4/30/15 at 4:37 pm to
1. I don't see us winning the Bama game and the Tennessee game. If we beat Bama, we'll have a letdown in Knoxville and if we lose to Bama, we come out fired up and kick the Vols arses.

2. We will never ever beat Florida by 3 td's anytime soon. Ever. If there was a time to do that, it was last year...


3. And I think we will split the Auburn and Ga Tech games unfortunately.

This is all assuming we have solid QB play similar to last year, which is not something we know now at all. The defense is gonna be heavily relied on this year.
Posted by MeatCleaverWeaver
Member since Oct 2013
22175 posts
Posted on 4/30/15 at 8:16 pm to
I think we have between 3-5 losses in SEC play and win all the non-conference games.
Posted by SICEMDAWGS11
Marietta, GA
Member since Jan 2015
922 posts
Posted on 5/1/15 at 12:39 am to
We lose to Bama, Tennessee, and Auburn.

Brice Ramsey's bad decisions plus not much experience at receiver worries me
Posted by dhuck20
SCLSU Fan
Member since Oct 2012
20285 posts
Posted on 5/1/15 at 12:32 pm to
Let's say I be generous and say we lose to UT, Bama, and Auburn. Feasible, for sure. But who in hell else are we going to lose to? 5 conference losses? Are you kidding?
Posted by MeatCleaverWeaver
Member since Oct 2013
22175 posts
Posted on 5/1/15 at 7:42 pm to
For one, Florida. In case you haven't noticed, we tend to struggle w/ them.
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
44668 posts
Posted on 5/1/15 at 7:49 pm to
It's Georgia. There are three losses on the schedule but no one has a fricking clue where they are. This is a team that could lose at Vanderbilt (I know Vandy blows but who would truly be shocked if UGA loses that game?) one week and demolish South Carolina at home the next week. They could beat Alabama by multiple TDs at home one week and lose by 24 in Knoxville the next week. This team will look like a Super Bowl contender and a Sun Belt also ran in the same month. It's just a matter of when and where.
Posted by GurleyManandProud020
Rocky Face
Member since Sep 2012
484 posts
Posted on 5/1/15 at 10:35 pm to
Scratch.
Posted by BarberitosDawg
Lee County Florida across causeway
Member since Oct 2013
9914 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 5:57 am to
quote:

2. We will never ever beat Florida by 3 td's anytime soon. Ever. If there was a time to do that, it was last year...



Bobo is somebody'e else's problem, the last relic of underachievement has left the building.

UGA will be feared (like they were in the early eighties) before the years end and CMR will be in trouble for pushing a bad SEC referee in the SECCG.
CMR is going Old Testament.

Posted by TMDawg
Member since Nov 2012
5374 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 6:50 am to
quote:

Bobo is somebody'e else's problem, the last relic of underachievement has left the building.
Yea I got tired of the offense setting records. Thankfully we had the defense to carry us through all these low scoring games the last few years
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86432 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 8:56 am to
quote:

Bobo is somebody'e else's problem, the last relic of underachievement has left the building.



I don't even know where to start dismantling this post
Posted by crispyUGA
Upstate SC
Member since Feb 2011
15919 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:00 am to
We could very well beat Bama, Auburn, Florida, and SC but then lose to Vandy, UK, and UT. It's mind blowing with this team sometimes.
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
3000 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:26 am to
I don't know why football fans think specific wins and losses are predictable. If you take a team with known weaknesses, it's not surprising that they'll lose some games, even games they "should" have won. In 2014 we had known weaknesses in the passing game, the defensive secondary and to a lesser extent on the defensive line. We lost our best running back (and a couple of our best backups) for over half the season and that hurt even though Chubb did a great job. In light of all that, 10-3 was a good outcome.

For 2015, I think we have fewer weaknesses. Some folks have convinced themselves that our quarterback play next year will see a dropoff. It's possible, but when I actually rewatch our games I don't see why it's a given. Mason didn't drive the offense, he just played a low risk game. Our offensive success was because of the OL and the running game. The downside is that we were predictable and fairly one dimensional and there were times that our offense bogged down when we needed them to cover for a weak defense.

Adding another element in 2015, either better downfield passing or a more mobile qb, could definitely overcome Mason's main attribute, which was lack of turnovers. Throw in a better defense and it could be a great season. Maybe it doesn't turn out that way, depending on injuries, etc., but there's no reason to dismiss our chances of winning the SEC at this point.
This post was edited on 5/5/15 at 9:29 am
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86432 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:36 am to
quote:

Some folks have convinced themselves that our quarterback play next year will see a dropoff. It's possible, but when I actually rewatch our games I don't see why it's a given.


Because based on decades worth of data, it's usually pretty accurate that when you go from a 5th year senior with a few games starting experience to a young guy with very limited action (mostly in mopup duty), there will be a dropoff.

quote:

Mason didn't drive the offense, he just played a low risk game


And that's all we needed from him. The biggest thing to me about mason was the TD/TO ratio. 21:4 is ridiculously good. He threw 16 TD/2 INT following the tennessee game. We didn't need him to sling it all over the field, we just needed him to not frick us over. I can't say for sure what our QB this year will be like, but I think it's a pretty safe bet that he will put us in some shakier positions than mason did.

Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
3000 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:48 am to
quote:

it's usually pretty accurate that when you go from a 5th year senior with a few games starting experience to a young guy with very limited action (mostly in mopup duty), there will be a dropoff.


If you were talking about going from 4 year starter Aaron Murray to Ramsey or Bauta, I'd agree. But Mason came into 2014 as basically a rookie, and it definitely showed at times. He was not an offensive force that can't be replaced. In fact, Bauta is entering his 4th year in our system, and I never saw Mason do a single thing that I don't think he could do, plus I think he might handle pressure in the pocket better and pick up some yards scrambling. Ramsey might loosen up defenses with the deep ball, giving us a less predictable offense. We are replacing a first year starter, with a weak arm, with another first year starter with a better arm or better legs. My decades of observation doesn't convince me that it's a dropoff.

quote:

And that's all we needed from him.


Well, I disagree. We needed more in the South Carolina game, the Florida game, and the Tech game, as well as the Tennessee game where he played horrible and we almost lost. It's not enough to say our offense was good, because it could have been better if Mason had other tools. If Ramsey or Bauta put us in some shakier positions, they may also get some first downs in situations where Mason wouldn't have. Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin and you can't consider one without the other.
This post was edited on 5/5/15 at 9:53 am
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86432 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 9:56 am to
quote:

If you were talking about going from Aaron Murray to Ramsey or Bauta, I'd agree. But Mason came into 2014 as basically a rookie, and it definitely showed at times.


I'm not saying that Mason's overall talent/ability can't be duplicated. It certainly can. But to suggest our new QB will have less than 5 INT on the year is absurd. Even though Mason didn't have a ton of experience (although he had 2.5 games worth of starts), he was still a 5th year senior who knew how to protect the ball. For as good as stafford and murray were, they both struggled with turnovers their first year.

quote:

Bauta is entering his 4th year in our system,


And has never played anything more than the last few snaps of a blowout.

quote:

We are replacing a first year starter, with a weak arm, with another first year starter with a better arm or better legs. My decades of observation doesn't convince me that it's a dropoff.


Mason's 5th year senior year is better better, numbers wise, than either stafford or david greene. It's not about overall talent, it's about beign old enough and around the game enough to not put your team in bad positions.

quote:

Well, I disagree. We needed more in the South Carolina game, the Florida game, and the Tech game


We didn't lose a single game this season because of mason. Not a one.

Posted by SneakyWaff1es
Member since Nov 2012
3939 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 10:09 am to
quote:

We needed more in the South Carolina game, the Florida game, and the Tech game


I think you filed this under the wrong "needs" file. We made Connor Show look like Tom Brady, Matt Jones is still running in Jacksonville and our two outstanding freshman backs are still lamenting their fumbles with Tech. You've lost your mind if you think Mason cost us anything.
Posted by WG_Dawg
Hoover
Member since Jun 2004
86432 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 10:16 am to
quote:

We made Connor Show look like Tom Brady, Matt Jones is still running in Jacksonville and our two outstanding freshman backs are still lamenting their fumbles with Tech. You've lost your mind if you think Mason cost us anything.


Not to mention the fact that we lose in regulation to tech if not for mason.
Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
3000 posts
Posted on 5/5/15 at 10:17 am to
quote:

But to suggest our new QB will have less than 5 INT on the year is absurd. Even though Mason didn't have a ton of experience (although he had 2.5 games worth of starts), he was still a 5th year senior who knew how to protect the ball.


I could play quarterback for Georgia and never throw an intereception, not one. That would of course, have an opportunity cost because some of those plays where I handed off to Nick Chubb would have a better outcome if I was also able to pass the football. There is a tradeoff between risk and reward. Just because Mason "protected the ball" doesn't mean he had an optimal skillset. He did what he was capable of doing, but that's not the same as saying he optimized our offensive output.

quote:

And has never played anything more than the last few snaps of a blowout.


By the time we play our first SEC game in 2015, one of our qb's will have as much starting experience as Mason had when we played Clemson. Any incremental advantage in skill will quickly overcome Mason's slight advantage in experience.

quote:

Mason's 5th year senior year is better better, numbers wise, than either stafford or david greene. It's not about overall talent, it's about beign old enough and around the game enough to not put your team in bad positions.


Like I said, Mason's success was in taking very few risks. But there were opportunity costs associated with that strategy. If he had played qb with the offenses that Stafford and Green did, that comparison would have been much different, because he couldn't do what they did and our offense would have suffered.

quote:

We didn't lose a single game this season because of mason. Not a one.


You have no way of knowing that. Our offense was limited because of his cautious decisions and limited physical tools. There's a reason no NFL team drafted Mason. They know his abilities are unlikely to maximize their success in a pro-style offense. I see no reason to think he maximized our offense either. With better qb play, it's not unreasonable to think we could have won more games in 2014. Low interception numbers are not the sole determinant of quarterback talent.
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