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OT - Hawks: Post-Draft Discussion
Posted on 6/26/15 at 8:23 pm
Posted on 6/26/15 at 8:23 pm
In case you weren't paying attention, the NBA draft was last night. The Hawks would have had pick 29, but due to the Joe Johnson trade with the Nets, we swapped 1st round picks this year and got the Nets 15th pick.
Now in the draft, the Hawks made two pick-and-trade moves. At 15 we selected Kelly Oubre for the Wizards who gave us pick 19 and a 2nd round pick next year and a 2nd round pick in 2017. The Wizards at 19 picked Jerion Grant for us, whom we immediately traded to the New York Knicks for 23 year old 2-year player, Tim Hardaway Jr., who the Knicks picked in 2013 at #24.
THj is a potential future 20+ point scorer. In NY, for his 1st two years in the league, he was the Knicks 6th man off the bench as a shooting guard playing the 2-spot, getting about 20-23 minutes, taking about 10 shots (six 2's, and four 3's), and scoring about 12 points per game. Now most would agree that's not a very good shooting percentage, but you have to take into consideration where he's playing. The NY Knicks suck. They're the 4th worst team in the league. They have shite coaching and a shite system where Carmelo Anthony hogs the ball and takes 1,000+ shots a season, they never pass the ball, and nobody plays defense.
Now just to put this in perspective, DeMarre Carroll was a 6 points per game on 6 shots per game and 2 rebounds per game player before coming to Coach Bud's system. DMC is now a 12 ppg on 8 shots and 6 rebounds player who has proven he can drop 20 points on any game if he's picking up the slack when teammates are injured or struggling.
Millsap was a 15 ppg on 13 shots with 4 rebounds before coming to Coach Bud's system. Now he's a 18 ppg on 12 shots with 6 rebounds.
Kyle Korver was a 8 ppg on 5 shots in Chicago. Now he's a 12 ppg on 7 shots player.
This is what Coach Bud does to guys. His system just makes players better. And they clearly believe they can take a kid like THj and turn him into a Kyle Korver 2.0, except THj has 10x more athletic ability and can actually create his own shot. He has an amazing cross-over and he's lightning to the rim with really great ball handling skills. But he was never going to get that chance in NY where they essentially told him to go be a chucker and just take shots whenever possible. Zero discipline and team-oriented play. Every man for himself basically, with Melo dictating flow.
So, the logical takeaway from this draft is that we're trying to keep our window open longer and win NOW.
Bobby Portis out of Arkansas would have been a great pick for us at 15 or 19. But the problem is he wouldn't have helped us be better THIS year, or even next year. Same with Oubre or Grant or really anyone who was drafted after about pick #8. Nobody drafted was going to come in this year and get 8+ rebounds and 12+ points from the 4 or 5 spot. And nobody was going to come in this year and get 5+ assists and 12+ points from the 2 or 3 spot either. If we wanted to keep our window open, a trade like we did was by far the best move. Many will disagree with that and say we could have made more moves in free agency, but THj is a proven commodity now, while 70% of ALL draft picks after pick #7 have proven to fizzle out and be out of the league by year 3.
Tim Hardaway Jr. can not only give us immediate production, but he also saved us nearly $1 million in cap space over what the 15th pick would have cost us.
Korver lead the team in minutes played with 37 per game, and you could tell by the end of the season it had taken its toll. He shot horrible the last 15 games of the regular season and all 16 playoff games. He's also a very poor defender, but when you're playing 37 minutes, you're absolutely going to be forced to play some D. With the draft move last night, I now see THj starting at the 2 spot and getting about 20 minutes and letting Korver come off the bench and get 20 minutes. If we can get 10 points each from these guys, who by platooning the 2 spot would keep each other much more rested, we just added 6-8 points to our scoring from the 2 position. And, probably increased their defensive efficiency somewhat too.
So... all that said, we still have to address free agency and our two big issues. Millsap and DMC are both UFA's, and we have 3 options. 1. Re-sign both and maybe pick up a cheap Center/5 from somewhere, which means Horford stays out of position at the 5 when he should be at the 4; 2. Re-sign neither which means we're going balls deep in FA for a superstar, plus another cheap role player or two; or 3. Re-sign just one of them and then go after a top tier Big to play the 5 so we can move Horford back to 4 and still keep one of our cogs.
So here's our team salary and cap space breakdown: LINK
I don't see us giving Millsap $17-18 million AND DMC $10-12 million at the same time. Although at this point we COULD do that because we literally have $41M in cap space. So giving them $30M would still leave about $11M for a couple other FA's or to re-sign Brand and Antic (yuck), but IMO we should let those two bums walk. Brand is done and Antic sucks. The main thing to consider here, though is that Millsap plays the 4 and DMC plays the 3. So Millsap is in Horford's position if we try to pickup a Center/5 in FA. So IMO, I think Millsap is gone.
Here's the scenario that I'd actually like to see:
Re-sign DMC for $11-12M (I think he'll take that because he loves it here, even if someone like the knicks offers him $14M. I think he'll take $11-12M from us as opposed to $13-14M from someone else.)
Let Millsap walk and get LaMarcus Aldridge for $21-22M, OR Marc Gasol for $19-20M, OR Brook Lopez for $18-19M. This would leave us still about $7-10M under the cap, which means we could actually add another piece if we wanted to. The 2017 cap max is going up significantly due to the new league TV contract that's coming, so the cap is really not a big deal after this year.
If we did this, it would easily add 3-5 more rebounds and 5-7 more points per game, PLUS we get to move Al back to his natural position at the 4 spot. Each of these guys is 17-22 ppg and 8-12 rebounds per game at the 5 in our system.
So here's how the lineup would look:
Starters:
Aldridge or Gasol or Lopez: C-5, 18 ppg, 9 rpg, 3 apg
Horford: PF-4, 15 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 apg
Carrol: SF-3, 12 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 apg
Hardaway: SG-2, 10 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg
Teague: PG-1, 15 ppg, 2 rpg, 7 apg
Bench:
Schroeder: PG-1, 10 ppg, 2 rpg, 5 apg
Korver: SG-2, 10 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg
Bazemore: SF-3, 4 ppg, 4 rpg, 1 apg
Sefolosha: SF-3, 4 ppg, 4 rpg, 1 apg
Scott: PF-4, 4 ppg, 3 rpg, 1 apg
Muscala: C/PF-4/5, 3 ppg, 4 rpg, 1 apg
Mack: SG-2, 2 ppg, 1 rpg, 2 apg
Jenkins: SG-2, 2 ppg, 1 rpg, 1 apg
I think this would increase our game scoring average from 98 (7th) up to around 106-108, which would put us top-3 in scoring with the Rockets (108/game) and Mavericks (110/game), except our defense would be SOOO much better than theirs. And our game average rebounds would go up from 41 per game (9th) to around 45-47 per game, which would make us a top-3 in rebounding too.
I mean it would be impressive as hell to have 6-7 guys put up double-digit points every night along with finally having a Big who has the potential to put up a double-double nearly every night too.
I really think this, or something like this, is what Coach Bud is trying to do. Either way, after doing some research and some math, I feel a lot better today about the draft than I did last night. Now bring on free agency and make us proud, Coach Bud.
Now in the draft, the Hawks made two pick-and-trade moves. At 15 we selected Kelly Oubre for the Wizards who gave us pick 19 and a 2nd round pick next year and a 2nd round pick in 2017. The Wizards at 19 picked Jerion Grant for us, whom we immediately traded to the New York Knicks for 23 year old 2-year player, Tim Hardaway Jr., who the Knicks picked in 2013 at #24.
THj is a potential future 20+ point scorer. In NY, for his 1st two years in the league, he was the Knicks 6th man off the bench as a shooting guard playing the 2-spot, getting about 20-23 minutes, taking about 10 shots (six 2's, and four 3's), and scoring about 12 points per game. Now most would agree that's not a very good shooting percentage, but you have to take into consideration where he's playing. The NY Knicks suck. They're the 4th worst team in the league. They have shite coaching and a shite system where Carmelo Anthony hogs the ball and takes 1,000+ shots a season, they never pass the ball, and nobody plays defense.
Now just to put this in perspective, DeMarre Carroll was a 6 points per game on 6 shots per game and 2 rebounds per game player before coming to Coach Bud's system. DMC is now a 12 ppg on 8 shots and 6 rebounds player who has proven he can drop 20 points on any game if he's picking up the slack when teammates are injured or struggling.
Millsap was a 15 ppg on 13 shots with 4 rebounds before coming to Coach Bud's system. Now he's a 18 ppg on 12 shots with 6 rebounds.
Kyle Korver was a 8 ppg on 5 shots in Chicago. Now he's a 12 ppg on 7 shots player.
This is what Coach Bud does to guys. His system just makes players better. And they clearly believe they can take a kid like THj and turn him into a Kyle Korver 2.0, except THj has 10x more athletic ability and can actually create his own shot. He has an amazing cross-over and he's lightning to the rim with really great ball handling skills. But he was never going to get that chance in NY where they essentially told him to go be a chucker and just take shots whenever possible. Zero discipline and team-oriented play. Every man for himself basically, with Melo dictating flow.
So, the logical takeaway from this draft is that we're trying to keep our window open longer and win NOW.
Bobby Portis out of Arkansas would have been a great pick for us at 15 or 19. But the problem is he wouldn't have helped us be better THIS year, or even next year. Same with Oubre or Grant or really anyone who was drafted after about pick #8. Nobody drafted was going to come in this year and get 8+ rebounds and 12+ points from the 4 or 5 spot. And nobody was going to come in this year and get 5+ assists and 12+ points from the 2 or 3 spot either. If we wanted to keep our window open, a trade like we did was by far the best move. Many will disagree with that and say we could have made more moves in free agency, but THj is a proven commodity now, while 70% of ALL draft picks after pick #7 have proven to fizzle out and be out of the league by year 3.
Tim Hardaway Jr. can not only give us immediate production, but he also saved us nearly $1 million in cap space over what the 15th pick would have cost us.
Korver lead the team in minutes played with 37 per game, and you could tell by the end of the season it had taken its toll. He shot horrible the last 15 games of the regular season and all 16 playoff games. He's also a very poor defender, but when you're playing 37 minutes, you're absolutely going to be forced to play some D. With the draft move last night, I now see THj starting at the 2 spot and getting about 20 minutes and letting Korver come off the bench and get 20 minutes. If we can get 10 points each from these guys, who by platooning the 2 spot would keep each other much more rested, we just added 6-8 points to our scoring from the 2 position. And, probably increased their defensive efficiency somewhat too.
So... all that said, we still have to address free agency and our two big issues. Millsap and DMC are both UFA's, and we have 3 options. 1. Re-sign both and maybe pick up a cheap Center/5 from somewhere, which means Horford stays out of position at the 5 when he should be at the 4; 2. Re-sign neither which means we're going balls deep in FA for a superstar, plus another cheap role player or two; or 3. Re-sign just one of them and then go after a top tier Big to play the 5 so we can move Horford back to 4 and still keep one of our cogs.
So here's our team salary and cap space breakdown: LINK
I don't see us giving Millsap $17-18 million AND DMC $10-12 million at the same time. Although at this point we COULD do that because we literally have $41M in cap space. So giving them $30M would still leave about $11M for a couple other FA's or to re-sign Brand and Antic (yuck), but IMO we should let those two bums walk. Brand is done and Antic sucks. The main thing to consider here, though is that Millsap plays the 4 and DMC plays the 3. So Millsap is in Horford's position if we try to pickup a Center/5 in FA. So IMO, I think Millsap is gone.
Here's the scenario that I'd actually like to see:
Re-sign DMC for $11-12M (I think he'll take that because he loves it here, even if someone like the knicks offers him $14M. I think he'll take $11-12M from us as opposed to $13-14M from someone else.)
Let Millsap walk and get LaMarcus Aldridge for $21-22M, OR Marc Gasol for $19-20M, OR Brook Lopez for $18-19M. This would leave us still about $7-10M under the cap, which means we could actually add another piece if we wanted to. The 2017 cap max is going up significantly due to the new league TV contract that's coming, so the cap is really not a big deal after this year.
If we did this, it would easily add 3-5 more rebounds and 5-7 more points per game, PLUS we get to move Al back to his natural position at the 4 spot. Each of these guys is 17-22 ppg and 8-12 rebounds per game at the 5 in our system.
So here's how the lineup would look:
Starters:
Aldridge or Gasol or Lopez: C-5, 18 ppg, 9 rpg, 3 apg
Horford: PF-4, 15 ppg, 7 rpg, 3 apg
Carrol: SF-3, 12 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 apg
Hardaway: SG-2, 10 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg
Teague: PG-1, 15 ppg, 2 rpg, 7 apg
Bench:
Schroeder: PG-1, 10 ppg, 2 rpg, 5 apg
Korver: SG-2, 10 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg
Bazemore: SF-3, 4 ppg, 4 rpg, 1 apg
Sefolosha: SF-3, 4 ppg, 4 rpg, 1 apg
Scott: PF-4, 4 ppg, 3 rpg, 1 apg
Muscala: C/PF-4/5, 3 ppg, 4 rpg, 1 apg
Mack: SG-2, 2 ppg, 1 rpg, 2 apg
Jenkins: SG-2, 2 ppg, 1 rpg, 1 apg
I think this would increase our game scoring average from 98 (7th) up to around 106-108, which would put us top-3 in scoring with the Rockets (108/game) and Mavericks (110/game), except our defense would be SOOO much better than theirs. And our game average rebounds would go up from 41 per game (9th) to around 45-47 per game, which would make us a top-3 in rebounding too.
I mean it would be impressive as hell to have 6-7 guys put up double-digit points every night along with finally having a Big who has the potential to put up a double-double nearly every night too.
I really think this, or something like this, is what Coach Bud is trying to do. Either way, after doing some research and some math, I feel a lot better today about the draft than I did last night. Now bring on free agency and make us proud, Coach Bud.
4
Posted on 6/26/15 at 9:02 pm to BeefDawg
I get why the trade was made filling like their was no immediate help at 15 and getting a proven bench player at 15 but at the same time it feels like we gave up alot more for Tim Hardaway than we should have. If Bud can do that with any player then you can defiantly hold pick 15 and get a better player possibly instead of a bench value but thats just my opinion.
Posted on 6/26/15 at 9:07 pm to BeefDawg
Excellent breakdown 
Posted on 6/26/15 at 9:17 pm to BeefDawg
Do people really think hardaway is starting for Korver?
Posted on 6/26/15 at 9:23 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:
Do people really think hardaway is starting for Korver?
hardaway will be a bench player
Posted on 6/26/15 at 9:46 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Korver is 34 years old and missing most of off-season training with a severe high ankle sprain. He plays 37 minutes a game, averages 12 points, and plays very mediocre defense during those 37 minutes. He was very clearly running out of gas at the end of the season, shooting under 36% for the playoffs and the last 10 games of the regular season.
Hardaway is 23 years old, plays 23 minutes a game and scores the same 12 points.
It's a toss up at this point, but I certainly wouldn't rule out Korver coming off the bench if Hardaway proves a fit in Coach Bud's system.
Hardaway is 23 years old, plays 23 minutes a game and scores the same 12 points.
It's a toss up at this point, but I certainly wouldn't rule out Korver coming off the bench if Hardaway proves a fit in Coach Bud's system.
This post was edited on 6/26/15 at 9:51 pm
Posted on 6/26/15 at 10:09 pm to BeefDawg
Maybe the system cures all, and if they sign a quality big much of my concerns will be alleviated.
The widespread mantra is the Knicks pulled off a coup.
The widespread mantra is the Knicks pulled off a coup.
Posted on 6/26/15 at 10:34 pm to WhopperDawg
Like the write up, good discussion. Would love the see a guy like Lamarcus or Marc but it isn't very realistic.
Honestly I wasn't happy with the draft last night but I do thing Hardaway will do pretty well in Atlanta. He can't defend well so I'm not a fan, but he will be a solid bench scorer and provide extra depth at the 2, especially with Kyle hurt.
Think Portis would definitely help this year. He can shoot from the perimeter and rebounds well, something we desperately need. Would be a very good backup 4 man.
Also what worries me is we have just thrown away good picks the last 2 years. At some point you have to draft well and develop guys. The 15 pick is pretty high, last yer we drafted a guy and bailed on him a month into his career, this year we trade it back for a known guy with lower potential.
Honestly I wasn't happy with the draft last night but I do thing Hardaway will do pretty well in Atlanta. He can't defend well so I'm not a fan, but he will be a solid bench scorer and provide extra depth at the 2, especially with Kyle hurt.
Think Portis would definitely help this year. He can shoot from the perimeter and rebounds well, something we desperately need. Would be a very good backup 4 man.
Also what worries me is we have just thrown away good picks the last 2 years. At some point you have to draft well and develop guys. The 15 pick is pretty high, last yer we drafted a guy and bailed on him a month into his career, this year we trade it back for a known guy with lower potential.
Posted on 6/26/15 at 10:36 pm to WhopperDawg
That is from the fans, but go ask Carmelo what he thinks. He's pissed that Hardaway was traded.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 6/26/15 at 10:56 pm to TigerinUGA
quote:
Also what worries me is we have just thrown away good picks the last 2 years
Agree. I would have loved to see Portis in Atlanta. I went to the bottom with the Kansas head case, back up on that trade because I could see Portis coming with 2 extra 2nd rounders, and then to the bottom with the second trade.
Beef - Carmelo is that last litmus test I would apply to a trade. Kind of the reverse of the Groucho line "I don't want to be a member of any club that will accept people like me as a member". If Carmelo wants him, we shouldn't.
Posted on 6/26/15 at 11:27 pm to WhopperDawg
I don't know about that rationale. A "Me first" guy who knows he's a "Me first" guy actually appreciating someone else's talent, and you think that's a bad thing? That's illogical.
Control freaks with huge ego's don't usually have any empathy or respect for those they believe to be inferior to them. If they truly believe something will effect them negatively, THEN they will voice their displeasure. And that's exactly what's happening here.
And if a guy like Melo thinks losing Hardaway is bad for him, it's most certainly a good sign for us.
Control freaks with huge ego's don't usually have any empathy or respect for those they believe to be inferior to them. If they truly believe something will effect them negatively, THEN they will voice their displeasure. And that's exactly what's happening here.
And if a guy like Melo thinks losing Hardaway is bad for him, it's most certainly a good sign for us.
Posted on 6/26/15 at 11:37 pm to TigerinUGA
quote:Hopefully this will change a little bit with him going from the most hopeless team in the league to a contender with a great coach. I like the move, solid young player who can contribute immediately, now if we can just find a way to bring in a good post player or two we might have something special this year.
He can't defend well so I'm not a fan,
Posted on 6/26/15 at 11:38 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
a guy like Melo
Melo will change his mind tomorrow. He is a flake, hence this judgement should be discarded.
Posted on 6/26/15 at 11:54 pm to WhopperDawg
Ok, so let's go ahead and disregard what Melo thinks.
You're still saying that the consensus is that the Knicks made out like bandits in this deal.
Who exactly is making this claim that actually has a shred of credibility and reliability with such claims?
The Knick fans? LOL
The NBA media "insiders"? LOL
The NBA draft and scouting "Guru's"? LOL
Seriously, are any of these folks actually more reliable than Coach Bud, who just won coach of the year and took a bunch of non-superstar journeyman to the NBA Eastern Conference finals after a 60 win season?
You're trying to tell me there's a majority of.... something.... a "conglomerate of reliable prognosticators".... out there with more expertise than our coach, who thinks the Knicks pulled a fast one on us?
Yeah.... Naw.
You're still saying that the consensus is that the Knicks made out like bandits in this deal.
Who exactly is making this claim that actually has a shred of credibility and reliability with such claims?
The Knick fans? LOL
The NBA media "insiders"? LOL
The NBA draft and scouting "Guru's"? LOL
Seriously, are any of these folks actually more reliable than Coach Bud, who just won coach of the year and took a bunch of non-superstar journeyman to the NBA Eastern Conference finals after a 60 win season?
You're trying to tell me there's a majority of.... something.... a "conglomerate of reliable prognosticators".... out there with more expertise than our coach, who thinks the Knicks pulled a fast one on us?
Yeah.... Naw.
Posted on 6/27/15 at 3:08 am to BeefDawg
I just don't see Aldridge or Gasol coming over. I can see maybe an Asik or possibly Thad Young from Philly but not a superstar if we were to let PM walk. On the point about THJR starting over Korver, I agree. Year after year Korver is drained when it comes playoff times and his shot is suffering. Having him healthy and energized down the stretch will pay off big time. Hardaway will fit in great here by getting away from the triangle offense and more importantly.... Melo. I can't wait to see what this team can do.
Posted on 6/27/15 at 6:47 am to BeefDawg
THjr is statistically the worst defender in the NBA, of 100 guards he ranked 94th. This was nothing more a cost saving ($1 million) move. If you look at his overall numbers, outside of averaging 10+ ppg, he offers little else. Unless Bud can motivate him, Jr. is the backup SG and will serve as a compliment player. I found it interesting that the Hawks PR team was spinning it as THjr had a higher PER than Antic and Bazemore, both of which are below average NBA players.
If I were at #15, I would have kept Oubre. His offense is raw, but his defense abilities are off the chart. Just my opinion
If I were at #15, I would have kept Oubre. His offense is raw, but his defense abilities are off the chart. Just my opinion
Posted on 6/27/15 at 7:43 am to RunLindsayRun
It would be freaking awesome if we could attract a big man like Aldridge to join us but I just can't see that happening. I just want something done to replace Pero with a better player.
Posted on 6/27/15 at 8:29 am to RunLindsayRun
ESPN on Aldridge: LINK
quote:
On the list of teams Aldridge will consider signing with are the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks, sources said.
quote:
Atlanta also is on Aldridge's list, as he believes he could form a strong frontcourt tandem with Hawks center Al Horford.
Posted on 6/27/15 at 8:40 am to Glory, Glory
quote:
If I were at #15, I would have kept Oubre. His offense is raw, but his defense abilities are off the chart. Just my opinion
This, if coach Bud can coach up anyone and this is how we spin this then we keep the better player with better potential not a proven backup that offers very little defensive value. Coach Buds system requires every player play good defense and fundamental bball. THjr is just not that guy yet. We also gave away our pick last year so that's two years in a row we got very little value from the draft.
Posted on 6/27/15 at 6:26 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
Seriously, are any of these folks actually more reliable than Coach Bud, who just won coach of the year and took a bunch of non-superstar journeyman to the NBA Eastern Conference finals after a 60 win season?
I believe the guy's name is Phil Jackson.
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