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re: Demarre Carroll to the Raptors.
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:38 pm to WhopperDawg
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:38 pm to WhopperDawg
We don't really have a logjam at the 4. From what I'm reading, Horford will continue to be the starting Center. Splitter is a 20-24 minute a game guy who will simply replace Pero and Brand (which is a significant upgrade), and also play deeper minutes at Center when we play teams with a true Big that Horford doesn't quite match up with, like Lopez or Gasol.
Millsap, Scott, and Muscala will continue to be the rotation at the 4 apparently. So our depth will look like this:
Teague/Schroeder
Korver/Hardaway/Mack
Sefolosha/Bazemore/Daye
Millsap/Scott/Moose
Horford/Splitter/Tavares
Tavares will get little to no minutes and Moose will probably spend some of his time at the 5 too. And I still think Mack might get released to free up cap room. Daye may get less play time than Tevares. But unless we do something crazy and trade away Teague (which would be stupid), I think we're probably done and this is it.
I suspect we will see a lot more small-ball packages with Teague+Schroeder on the court at the same time, and Korver+Hardaway at the same time.
We are super deep right now with fast athletic guys who can run the hell out of the floor and force teams to wear themselves down chasing us. Our defense may take a hit from last year, but our ability to run the floor has gone up. And, Splitter now improves our matchups vs teams with bigger 5's and he's a much better scorer and rebounder than Pero or Brand. So we've really just shifted some capabilities around and increased our ability to run the floor and wear teams out.
We'll see how it works. I have faith in Coach Bud.
Millsap, Scott, and Muscala will continue to be the rotation at the 4 apparently. So our depth will look like this:
Teague/Schroeder
Korver/Hardaway/Mack
Sefolosha/Bazemore/Daye
Millsap/Scott/Moose
Horford/Splitter/Tavares
Tavares will get little to no minutes and Moose will probably spend some of his time at the 5 too. And I still think Mack might get released to free up cap room. Daye may get less play time than Tevares. But unless we do something crazy and trade away Teague (which would be stupid), I think we're probably done and this is it.
I suspect we will see a lot more small-ball packages with Teague+Schroeder on the court at the same time, and Korver+Hardaway at the same time.
We are super deep right now with fast athletic guys who can run the hell out of the floor and force teams to wear themselves down chasing us. Our defense may take a hit from last year, but our ability to run the floor has gone up. And, Splitter now improves our matchups vs teams with bigger 5's and he's a much better scorer and rebounder than Pero or Brand. So we've really just shifted some capabilities around and increased our ability to run the floor and wear teams out.
We'll see how it works. I have faith in Coach Bud.
This post was edited on 7/1/15 at 9:40 pm
1
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:35 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
Sefolosha/Bazemore/Daye
If you look at the projected 3 spot above, you would rank us in what quadrant in the league:
Top 4th
Second 4th
Third 4th
Bottom 4th
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:55 pm to WhopperDawg
It's hard to say now that Carroll is gone and Thabo would get his minutes.
DeMarre Carroll was a 17 minute per game, 6 points, 3 rebounds, 46% shooting player in Utah before coming here.
In our system he's a 34 minute per game, 12 points, 5 rebounds, 48% shooting player.
Thabo Sefolosha is currently a 18 minute per game, 5.5 points, 4 rebounds, 43% shooting player.
If Thabo gets Carroll's 34 minutes per game and essentially doubles his stats, he's 11 points, 7-8 rebounds and likely improves his shooting percentage too.
I don't think that's a huge drop off, especially considering he gets more rebounds and steals and is easily one of the best defenders in the entire league.
And, any less production we get from the 3 position should be made up by the additions of Hardaway and Splitter. Plus, Bazemore has done nothing but get better and better every game. It's going to click for him soon and he's going to take a big leap and start really surprising folks. That kid is as athletic as Josh Smith was. Once he gets his body under control and calms the frick down, he might just become a household name.
I'm ok with where we're at I think. If we make another move to grab a 3, I'll be good with that too. But I think we might be done and set with our roster.
DeMarre Carroll was a 17 minute per game, 6 points, 3 rebounds, 46% shooting player in Utah before coming here.
In our system he's a 34 minute per game, 12 points, 5 rebounds, 48% shooting player.
Thabo Sefolosha is currently a 18 minute per game, 5.5 points, 4 rebounds, 43% shooting player.
If Thabo gets Carroll's 34 minutes per game and essentially doubles his stats, he's 11 points, 7-8 rebounds and likely improves his shooting percentage too.
I don't think that's a huge drop off, especially considering he gets more rebounds and steals and is easily one of the best defenders in the entire league.
And, any less production we get from the 3 position should be made up by the additions of Hardaway and Splitter. Plus, Bazemore has done nothing but get better and better every game. It's going to click for him soon and he's going to take a big leap and start really surprising folks. That kid is as athletic as Josh Smith was. Once he gets his body under control and calms the frick down, he might just become a household name.
I'm ok with where we're at I think. If we make another move to grab a 3, I'll be good with that too. But I think we might be done and set with our roster.
Posted on 7/1/15 at 11:15 pm to BeefDawg
quote:
I'm ok with where we're at I think
You make good points. Maybe the backups will improve and pickup the slack. On the surface with Carroll gone and Milsap retained, Splitter signed and TW2 traded for, the starters probably have taken a step back with Carroll being replaced by the trio you listed and no other changes. If you assume step ups by the backups, maybe that is not true.
You can certainly argue that the second unit is stronger with Splitter and TW2.
But for the first unit, your scenario of Harris at 3, Splitter at 5 and Horford at 4 remains a much preferred option to me.
Additionally, I would prefer Carroll at 3, Splitter at 5 and Horford at 4.
It all centers around Milsap still at 4 preventing Horford at 4, which will be the lineup that garners the most minutes.
It looks like we had a couple of options that would be preferable to where we are, but the organization put a lot of money and faith in Milsap.
We'll see. I am a big Milsap fan by the way, but the late blooming Carroll has a chance to be really good, and a much younger and cheaper Harris would make a lot of sense too. Seems like a head scratcher to me.
Posted on 7/1/15 at 11:36 pm to WhopperDawg
Here's something to understand about DeMarre...
We lead the league in team assists last year by a lot, and 80% of all of Carroll's points came off of an assist. He just signed with the 3rd worst assist team in the league.
DeMarre is NOT a shot creator. He simply isn't a slasher and post up guy or space exploiter. He's a stand in a spot or come off a pick and shoot a wide open jumper with nobody in his face player.
He's about to have a rude awakening in Toronto, because that's not their style of play. I'd bet dollars to donuts he doesn't come close to having the scoring and shooting percentage there that he just had here.
So don't be too bent about losing Carroll. Coach Bud's system makes average players into solid role-players who play above their norm. That's what being the leading assist team does. Unselfish players who WANT to pass until the ball gets to the best, most open, or highest percentage shot.
We turned a team full of non-superstar players and mediocre statistical depth into a 60 win team full of all stars. Logic says that doesn't just stop because we lost one guy.
We lead the league in team assists last year by a lot, and 80% of all of Carroll's points came off of an assist. He just signed with the 3rd worst assist team in the league.
DeMarre is NOT a shot creator. He simply isn't a slasher and post up guy or space exploiter. He's a stand in a spot or come off a pick and shoot a wide open jumper with nobody in his face player.
He's about to have a rude awakening in Toronto, because that's not their style of play. I'd bet dollars to donuts he doesn't come close to having the scoring and shooting percentage there that he just had here.
So don't be too bent about losing Carroll. Coach Bud's system makes average players into solid role-players who play above their norm. That's what being the leading assist team does. Unselfish players who WANT to pass until the ball gets to the best, most open, or highest percentage shot.
We turned a team full of non-superstar players and mediocre statistical depth into a 60 win team full of all stars. Logic says that doesn't just stop because we lost one guy.
Posted on 7/2/15 at 9:54 am to BeefDawg
Saw something on Twitter earlier that said Paul is open to playing the 3, with Horford at the 4 and Splitter at the 5. Not sure if Paul is athletic enough to guard some of the faster and more athletic 3s but that lineup would be...interesting I guess.
Posted on 7/2/15 at 10:00 am to BeefDawg
quote:
Logic says that doesn't just stop because we lost one guy.
I hear ya. But logic also says that if Horford's natural spot is the 4 and you just signed Milsap, a 4, to a mega deal, while your 3 maybe got significantly weakened, then you might not be playing to your strength.
But maybe San Antonio 's system can overcome that. But if your goal is to be the best at what you do, you need to put yourself in the best possible position, not one that you can overcome.
Posted on 7/2/15 at 11:09 am to WhopperDawg
In Bud We Trust
(says the guy with a Widespread Panic avatar
)
(says the guy with a Widespread Panic avatar
)This post was edited on 7/2/15 at 11:10 am
Posted on 7/2/15 at 11:17 am to Hobnail
Tavares coming over 
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