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Scoring Offense vs. Defense Analysis (Alabama)
Posted on 10/16/16 at 2:16 am
Posted on 10/16/16 at 2:16 am
A&M averages 15.5 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 8.4 ppg fewer than its opponents score.
Against SEC opponents, those numbers become 12.0 more and 1.4 fewer.
Alabama averages 16.7 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 16.2 fewer than its opponents score.
Against SEC opponents, those numbers become 15.2 more and 10.1 fewer.
Using all four models, you get:
Alabama 37, A&M 30
Alabama 44, A&M 34
Alabama 36, A&M 24
Alabama 40, A&M 28
A&M scores between 24-34
Alabama scores between 36-44
There isn't a single score combination in which A&M wins this one and each model except one has Alabama winning by 2 scores.
This pretty much guarantees that Alabama will win by at least a touchdown next Saturday.
Projecting the model out for the rest of the year using A&M's stats, you get the following results:
Texas A&M 59, New Mexico State 19
Texas A&M 42, Mississippi State 16
Texas A&M 45, Ole Miss 33
Texas A&M 42, UTSA 20
Texas A&M 30, LSU 17
Against SEC opponents, those numbers become 12.0 more and 1.4 fewer.
Alabama averages 16.7 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 16.2 fewer than its opponents score.
Against SEC opponents, those numbers become 15.2 more and 10.1 fewer.
Using all four models, you get:
Alabama 37, A&M 30
Alabama 44, A&M 34
Alabama 36, A&M 24
Alabama 40, A&M 28
A&M scores between 24-34
Alabama scores between 36-44
There isn't a single score combination in which A&M wins this one and each model except one has Alabama winning by 2 scores.
This pretty much guarantees that Alabama will win by at least a touchdown next Saturday.
Projecting the model out for the rest of the year using A&M's stats, you get the following results:
Texas A&M 59, New Mexico State 19
Texas A&M 42, Mississippi State 16
Texas A&M 45, Ole Miss 33
Texas A&M 42, UTSA 20
Texas A&M 30, LSU 17
This post was edited on 10/16/16 at 2:21 am
4
Posted on 10/16/16 at 2:49 am to CGSC Lobotomy
Thanks cgsc.
Im a sucker for data, especially if it has nm St scoring more than lsu.
Good thing the ags have been sand bagging for this game.
Im a sucker for data, especially if it has nm St scoring more than lsu.
Good thing the ags have been sand bagging for this game.
Posted on 10/16/16 at 9:37 am to Nguyening
The models give us no chance to win.
Vegas gives us no chance to win.
Excellent.
Vegas gives us no chance to win.
Excellent.
Posted on 10/16/16 at 9:54 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
Using all four models
quote:
This pretty much guarantees
The only thing that's always true about modeling is that all models are wrong.
Posted on 10/16/16 at 9:57 am to CGSC Lobotomy
So you're saying there's a chance.
I really like being a big underdog here this weekend.
I really like being a big underdog here this weekend.
Posted on 10/16/16 at 11:30 am to CGSC Lobotomy
It doesn't guarantee anything actually
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