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Scoring Offense vs. Defense Analysis (Alabama)
Posted on 10/5/15 at 8:01 am
Posted on 10/5/15 at 8:01 am
The numbers look much worse this week than they would have last week and I'll have to run these again after the bye:
A&M averages 39.2 ppg and allows 21.0 ppg. vs. SEC opponents, A&M averages 29.0 ppg and allows 19.0 ppg.
Running the numbers, against ALL opponents, A&M scores 13.6 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 5.5 fewer ppg than its opponents score. Only Nevada scored above their average and Arkansas held A&M to just over 5 points per game than they normally allow.
Against SEC opponents, however, A&M scores 8.9 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 8.8 ppg fewer than its opponents score.
Using all opponents, the score comes out to Alabama 31, A&M 30.
Using SEC opponents, the score comes out to A&M 35, Alabama 29.
Alabama averages 36.2 ppg and allows 16.0 ppg. Vs. SEC opponents, they average 37.5 ppg and allow 26.5 ppg.
Against ALL opponents, Alabama scores 14.8 more ppg than its opponents allow and allows 18.6 fewer points per game than its opponents score. The offensive outlier is the Louisiana Monroe game, which ended in a 34-0 shutout. ULM allows 34 points. The defensive outlier is Ole Miss, who was held to 2.8 points below their average.
Against SEC opponents, Alabama scores 16.8 more ppg than its opponents allow and allows 15.6 ppg fewer than its opponents score.
Running the numbers for all opponents, we get Alabama 36, Texas A&M 21 and for SEC opponents, we get Alabama 36, Texas A&M 13.
Aggregating all, we get:
Alabama scores between 29-36 points
A&M scores between 13-35 points
Result: Analysis doesn't work here because the resulting numbers are so disparate that any result is inconclusive.
HOWEVER - The analysis last week predicted that A&M would score 30 points on Mississippi State, which is EXACTLY what happened, and predicted A&M would score 27 on Arkansas, which was only one point off. It predicted 27 points for Mississippi State (which was 10 more than they scored) and 17 points for Arkansas (which was 4 fewer than they scored).
If that holds true to form, A&M wins 30-28.
I think we'll have more realistic numbers once the Ole Miss/Memphis game is played.
A&M averages 39.2 ppg and allows 21.0 ppg. vs. SEC opponents, A&M averages 29.0 ppg and allows 19.0 ppg.
Running the numbers, against ALL opponents, A&M scores 13.6 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 5.5 fewer ppg than its opponents score. Only Nevada scored above their average and Arkansas held A&M to just over 5 points per game than they normally allow.
Against SEC opponents, however, A&M scores 8.9 ppg more than its opponents allow and allows 8.8 ppg fewer than its opponents score.
Using all opponents, the score comes out to Alabama 31, A&M 30.
Using SEC opponents, the score comes out to A&M 35, Alabama 29.
Alabama averages 36.2 ppg and allows 16.0 ppg. Vs. SEC opponents, they average 37.5 ppg and allow 26.5 ppg.
Against ALL opponents, Alabama scores 14.8 more ppg than its opponents allow and allows 18.6 fewer points per game than its opponents score. The offensive outlier is the Louisiana Monroe game, which ended in a 34-0 shutout. ULM allows 34 points. The defensive outlier is Ole Miss, who was held to 2.8 points below their average.
Against SEC opponents, Alabama scores 16.8 more ppg than its opponents allow and allows 15.6 ppg fewer than its opponents score.
Running the numbers for all opponents, we get Alabama 36, Texas A&M 21 and for SEC opponents, we get Alabama 36, Texas A&M 13.
Aggregating all, we get:
Alabama scores between 29-36 points
A&M scores between 13-35 points
Result: Analysis doesn't work here because the resulting numbers are so disparate that any result is inconclusive.
HOWEVER - The analysis last week predicted that A&M would score 30 points on Mississippi State, which is EXACTLY what happened, and predicted A&M would score 27 on Arkansas, which was only one point off. It predicted 27 points for Mississippi State (which was 10 more than they scored) and 17 points for Arkansas (which was 4 fewer than they scored).
If that holds true to form, A&M wins 30-28.
I think we'll have more realistic numbers once the Ole Miss/Memphis game is played.
This post was edited on 10/5/15 at 8:12 am
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Posted on 10/5/15 at 8:30 am to CGSC Lobotomy
Sounds like this is close to ESPN FPI analysis. Bama has 45% chance of winning according to FPI.
The only remaining game on their schedule which they aren't favored.
The only remaining game on their schedule which they aren't favored.
Posted on 10/5/15 at 8:32 am to CGSC Lobotomy
But what if we ran the numbers using games where Sumlin has 2 whole weeks to prepare and for Bama weeks after tough physical conference games
This is a huge factor
I hope
This is a huge factor
I hope
Posted on 10/5/15 at 8:39 am to Old Sarge
quote:
This is a huge factor
Any chance of teaching the guards and tackles how to block with power for Tra Carson...
I hope more.
Posted on 10/5/15 at 8:45 am to Old Sarge
We lost our bye in 2012, meaning it was filed by La Tech after the fake hurricane.
In 2013 we won 41-38 in Oxford over Ole Miss.
In 2014 we lost 23-17 in CS to LSU.
In 2013 we won 41-38 in Oxford over Ole Miss.
In 2014 we lost 23-17 in CS to LSU.
Posted on 10/5/15 at 12:07 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Using numerical analyses on Ole Miss doesn't really work.
They scored a ton of points against two FCS rent-a-win teams to start the season. Their win against Alabama was aided by five turnovers (scoring 24 off the first four and sealing the game on the 5th). Take away those 24 and even with the fluke bounce TD they still lose to the Tide.
What they did do well was stop Derrick Henry. And unfortunately you can spell Texas A&M without "run d". We need to look at that film and see what they did, and adjust our game plan accordingly. Otherwise our 0 will go.
They scored a ton of points against two FCS rent-a-win teams to start the season. Their win against Alabama was aided by five turnovers (scoring 24 off the first four and sealing the game on the 5th). Take away those 24 and even with the fluke bounce TD they still lose to the Tide.
What they did do well was stop Derrick Henry. And unfortunately you can spell Texas A&M without "run d". We need to look at that film and see what they did, and adjust our game plan accordingly. Otherwise our 0 will go.
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