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Scoring Offense/Defense vs. Opponents Averages Analysis: Mississippi State
Posted on 9/27/15 at 4:22 am
Posted on 9/27/15 at 4:22 am
After four games, we can actually start doing this.
Based off of four games, we've come up with the following.
Texas A&M averages 41.5 points per game.
Against its four opponents, A&M averages 12.4 more points per game than their opponents allow. (Arkansas was the lowest at +5.0)
Texas A&M allows 22.0 points per game.
Against its four opponents, A&M allows an average of 6.6 FEWER points than its opponents score. (Only Nevada exceeded their average, by 1.5)
Mississippi State averages 33 points per game.
Against its four opponents Mississippi State only averages 1.4 more points per game than their opponents allow. Both LSU and Auburn held them below their scoring defense allowance.
Against its four opponents, Mississippi State allows an average of 13 fewer points per game than their opponents score. Northwestern State scored 4.8 fewer points than they normally do against Mississippi State.
Using A&M's stats, we get Texas A&M 27, Mississippi State 26.
Using Mississippi State's stats, we get Texas A&M 29, Mississippi State 23.
Extrapolating, we get the following:
Texas A&M - Between 27-29 points
Mississippi State - Between 23-26 points
Outcome uncertain (fewer than 8 points either direction difference)
Based off of four games, we've come up with the following.
Texas A&M averages 41.5 points per game.
Against its four opponents, A&M averages 12.4 more points per game than their opponents allow. (Arkansas was the lowest at +5.0)
Texas A&M allows 22.0 points per game.
Against its four opponents, A&M allows an average of 6.6 FEWER points than its opponents score. (Only Nevada exceeded their average, by 1.5)
Mississippi State averages 33 points per game.
Against its four opponents Mississippi State only averages 1.4 more points per game than their opponents allow. Both LSU and Auburn held them below their scoring defense allowance.
Against its four opponents, Mississippi State allows an average of 13 fewer points per game than their opponents score. Northwestern State scored 4.8 fewer points than they normally do against Mississippi State.
Using A&M's stats, we get Texas A&M 27, Mississippi State 26.
Using Mississippi State's stats, we get Texas A&M 29, Mississippi State 23.
Extrapolating, we get the following:
Texas A&M - Between 27-29 points
Mississippi State - Between 23-26 points
Outcome uncertain (fewer than 8 points either direction difference)
Posted on 9/27/15 at 11:05 am to CGSC Lobotomy
The Count
Thanks for the numbers, sir. Guess we should gird our emotional loins for another slobberknocker.
Thanks for the numbers, sir. Guess we should gird our emotional loins for another slobberknocker.
Posted on 9/27/15 at 11:29 am to TbirdSpur2010
Thanks for the analysis.
What would your analysis say if we threw out MSU's game against Northwestern State (62-13)? A&M has only played FBS opponents. I think that makes a significant difference. I believe home-field should offer some advantage too.
What would your analysis say if we threw out MSU's game against Northwestern State (62-13)? A&M has only played FBS opponents. I think that makes a significant difference. I believe home-field should offer some advantage too.
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:27 am to Chill98
quote:
What would your analysis say if we threw out MSU's game against Northwestern State (62-13)?
Here's the thing though, you CAN'T throw it out because you're basing the numbers off of how your team did vs. what that OPPONENT scores and allows. It's similar to RPI in basketball.
Northwestern State allows almost 50 ppg and scores less than 20 per game. THAT IS RELEVANT INFORMATION.
However, to placate you:
Removing the Northwestern State numbers, the results look like this:
Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 17
Texas A&M 26, Mississippi State 19
A&M: 26-28
MSU: 17-19
It goes from "outcome uncertain" to "close win A&M" (any spread between 9-16 points is a close win, anything over is a blowout)
This post was edited on 9/28/15 at 12:28 am
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