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Scoring Offense/Defense vs. Opponents Averages Analysis: Mississippi State

Posted on 9/27/15 at 4:22 am
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
79962 posts
Posted on 9/27/15 at 4:22 am
After four games, we can actually start doing this.

Based off of four games, we've come up with the following.

Texas A&M averages 41.5 points per game.

Against its four opponents, A&M averages 12.4 more points per game than their opponents allow. (Arkansas was the lowest at +5.0)

Texas A&M allows 22.0 points per game.

Against its four opponents, A&M allows an average of 6.6 FEWER points than its opponents score. (Only Nevada exceeded their average, by 1.5)

Mississippi State averages 33 points per game.

Against its four opponents Mississippi State only averages 1.4 more points per game than their opponents allow. Both LSU and Auburn held them below their scoring defense allowance.

Against its four opponents, Mississippi State allows an average of 13 fewer points per game than their opponents score. Northwestern State scored 4.8 fewer points than they normally do against Mississippi State.

Using A&M's stats, we get Texas A&M 27, Mississippi State 26.

Using Mississippi State's stats, we get Texas A&M 29, Mississippi State 23.

Extrapolating, we get the following:

Texas A&M - Between 27-29 points
Mississippi State - Between 23-26 points

Outcome uncertain (fewer than 8 points either direction difference)
Posted by TbirdSpur2010
ALAMO CITY
Member since Dec 2010
134026 posts
Posted on 9/27/15 at 11:05 am to
The Count

Thanks for the numbers, sir. Guess we should gird our emotional loins for another slobberknocker.
Posted by Chill98
Member since Aug 2015
2151 posts
Posted on 9/27/15 at 11:29 am to
Thanks for the analysis.

What would your analysis say if we threw out MSU's game against Northwestern State (62-13)? A&M has only played FBS opponents. I think that makes a significant difference. I believe home-field should offer some advantage too.
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
79962 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:27 am to
quote:

What would your analysis say if we threw out MSU's game against Northwestern State (62-13)?


Here's the thing though, you CAN'T throw it out because you're basing the numbers off of how your team did vs. what that OPPONENT scores and allows. It's similar to RPI in basketball.

Northwestern State allows almost 50 ppg and scores less than 20 per game. THAT IS RELEVANT INFORMATION.

However, to placate you:

Removing the Northwestern State numbers, the results look like this:

Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 17
Texas A&M 26, Mississippi State 19

A&M: 26-28
MSU: 17-19

It goes from "outcome uncertain" to "close win A&M" (any spread between 9-16 points is a close win, anything over is a blowout)
This post was edited on 9/28/15 at 12:28 am
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