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Scoring Offense/Defense Analysis (Tennessee)
Posted on 10/2/16 at 7:20 pm
Posted on 10/2/16 at 7:20 pm
Links to the previous ones.
Arkansas
A&M 45 (9 more than max), Arkansas 24 (2 more than max)
South Carolina
A&M 24 (4 points less than max), South Carolina 13 (9 points more than max)
A&M (39.2 PF/14.8 PA, 32.7/16.7 SEC) averages 16.3 more than its opponents allow (13.3 in SEC play) and allows 12.8 less than its opponents score (10.4 in SEC play)
Tennessee (33.0 PF/23.0 PA, 36.0/29.5 SEC) averages 10.9 more than its opponents allow (14.8 in SEC play) and allows 7.3 less than its opponents score (2.1 MORE in SEC play)
Using the four predictive models, you get the following scores:
A&M 39, Tennessee 20
A&M 43, Tennessee 26
A&M 32, Tennessee 26
A&M 35, Tennessee 31
From this model, A&M scores between 32-43 and Tennessee scores between 26-31.
In no model does Tennessee win. The model has 2/4 predicting A&M by more than 16, which would normally indicate a 2 score win, BUT the other two have A&M by less than 8, which equates to a tossup.
Splitting the difference, A&M by 1 score.
Unfortunately, it's College Gameday, so the Aggies lose by 8 or fewer points.
Arkansas
A&M 45 (9 more than max), Arkansas 24 (2 more than max)
South Carolina
A&M 24 (4 points less than max), South Carolina 13 (9 points more than max)
A&M (39.2 PF/14.8 PA, 32.7/16.7 SEC) averages 16.3 more than its opponents allow (13.3 in SEC play) and allows 12.8 less than its opponents score (10.4 in SEC play)
Tennessee (33.0 PF/23.0 PA, 36.0/29.5 SEC) averages 10.9 more than its opponents allow (14.8 in SEC play) and allows 7.3 less than its opponents score (2.1 MORE in SEC play)
Using the four predictive models, you get the following scores:
A&M 39, Tennessee 20
A&M 43, Tennessee 26
A&M 32, Tennessee 26
A&M 35, Tennessee 31
From this model, A&M scores between 32-43 and Tennessee scores between 26-31.
In no model does Tennessee win. The model has 2/4 predicting A&M by more than 16, which would normally indicate a 2 score win, BUT the other two have A&M by less than 8, which equates to a tossup.
Splitting the difference, A&M by 1 score.
Unfortunately, it's College Gameday, so the Aggies lose by 8 or fewer points.
Posted on 10/2/16 at 7:23 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
At some point the dice have to come out hot for us when it comes to GameDay. So far it's all been snake eyes. I'm tired of it.
Also I want Rocky Top played a minimal number of times, assuming their band shows up.
Also I want Rocky Top played a minimal number of times, assuming their band shows up.
Posted on 10/2/16 at 7:28 pm to Slotback
quote:
At some point the dice have to come out hot for us when it comes to GameDay
5 losses over 21 years tells me the dice are loaded.
Posted on 10/2/16 at 9:43 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
They might be. Perhaps we should switch the dice....
Posted on 10/2/16 at 9:55 pm to Slotback
frick dice it's a bitch game anyways; this shite's chess not checkers
Posted on 10/3/16 at 7:44 am to CGSC Lobotomy
I agree with your analysis, especially the Gameday part.
We screwed.
We screwed.
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