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re: Prediction Thread
Posted on 8/6/15 at 5:54 pm to SwaggerCopter
Posted on 8/6/15 at 5:54 pm to SwaggerCopter
quote:
And we can't just dismiss the cluster frick that was the Alabama game.
It isn't even that, one awful game is fine. It happens 9though 59-0 reflects poorly on Sumlin, but that is another thread).
The issue is that if you take out the yards and points we had against USC, the first half against Auburn and the second and third quarter against West Virginia and average things out, our offense ranked 48th in the FBS. If you take out the games against Rice, Lamar and SMU as well and just average out the Arkansas, MSU, Ole Miss, Bama, ULaLa, Mizzu and LSU games as well as the remaining quarters from the Auburn and WVU games, our offensive averages would be good for 68th.
That just isn't acceptable. We have like half a dozen five stars on offense and we couldn't do dick against teams that bothered to press our receivers.
This post was edited on 8/6/15 at 5:55 pm
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Posted on 8/6/15 at 6:11 pm to SwaggerCopter
Our OFEI last year ranked #24.
LINK
Texas Tech was #34, and WVU was #60.
So simply having a HUNH offense (and we were more "NH" than "HUNH") doesn't guarantee success.
OTOH, our DFEI was #86. Below even Cal.
And I"m not dismissing the Bama game. It was one of the "notable exceptions". But I also think we can't make to much of it, either.
LINK
Texas Tech was #34, and WVU was #60.
So simply having a HUNH offense (and we were more "NH" than "HUNH") doesn't guarantee success.
OTOH, our DFEI was #86. Below even Cal.
And I"m not dismissing the Bama game. It was one of the "notable exceptions". But I also think we can't make to much of it, either.
Posted on 8/6/15 at 6:14 pm to Roger Klarvin
You're taking our 3 easiest games and our two best halves against good competition away. And we're 68th? 4 full games of data is a lot.
Only 68 teams had better averages in their full schedule than we did in our most difficult games? That's incredible.
Only 68 teams had better averages in their full schedule than we did in our most difficult games? That's incredible.
Posted on 8/6/15 at 6:16 pm to Roger Klarvin
If you take out the first quarter of the 2012 Bama game, Johnny never wins the Heisman.
You can't just cherry pick like this. Every team has ups and downs, where they go on scoring runs. Taking out the periods of greatest success, then comparing the result to the TOTAL results of other teams, is apples and oranges.
If you're going to take out the UPs, you at least have to take out the DOWNS, too. If you want to eliminate the outliers, you have to eliminate positive and negative outliers, not just the positive ones.
You can't just cherry pick like this. Every team has ups and downs, where they go on scoring runs. Taking out the periods of greatest success, then comparing the result to the TOTAL results of other teams, is apples and oranges.
If you're going to take out the UPs, you at least have to take out the DOWNS, too. If you want to eliminate the outliers, you have to eliminate positive and negative outliers, not just the positive ones.
Posted on 8/6/15 at 6:21 pm to Mirthomatic
If you take out Bama, LSU, ULM, and OM we are 6th in the country in PPG.
you can pretty much do anything with 4 games of data manipulation.
Instead we were 28th, breaking in two first time starters in a QB driven offense, An OL that played sloppy and soft, and WR's who were new to the position.
you can pretty much do anything with 4 games of data manipulation.
Instead we were 28th, breaking in two first time starters in a QB driven offense, An OL that played sloppy and soft, and WR's who were new to the position.
Posted on 8/6/15 at 6:25 pm to Mirthomatic
quote:
If you take out the first quarter of the 2012 Bama game, Johnny never wins the Heisman.
Talmbout! The offense will be better than fine. (If we run bubble screens 1/3 of the time against ASU I'll lean towards Roger's opinion, but I really don't see that happening.) Our CBs are a concern, but what worries me most is Bertolet in close games.
Posted on 8/6/15 at 6:42 pm to Nguyening
quote:
Only 68 teams had better averages in their full schedule than we did in our most difficult games? That's incredible.
You misunderstood the calculation, and Mizzu, LSU and ULaULa weren't world beaters.
Posted on 8/6/15 at 6:43 pm to Mirthomatic
quote:
If you take out the first quarter of the 2012 Bama game, Johnny never wins the Heisman.
But he still had a remarkable season and destroyed pretty much every other defense he faced.
Outside of 8 quarters, our offense was legitimately bad against FBS competition.
Posted on 8/6/15 at 6:44 pm to Nguyening
Again, the point was that our offense was largely poor against FBS teams.
What you do against SMU and Lamar doesn't matter, at all.
What you do against SMU and Lamar doesn't matter, at all.
Posted on 8/6/15 at 7:00 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
You misunderstood the calculation, and Mizzu, LSU and ULaULa weren't world beaters.
LOL.
Mizzou and LSU both had top 20 national defenses. ULM was the opening game for our true freshman QB and we kept it very vanilla.
I have a pretty good understanding of the calculation. You took almost 1/3 of our best data points away.
Posted on 8/6/15 at 7:01 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
What you do against SMU and Lamar doesn't matter, at all.
I agree. Did you take those kind of data points away from the other teams when you came up with the *68th* ranking?
Posted on 8/7/15 at 8:55 am to Nguyening
Nope.
The only way to do that comparison FAIRLY is to take away the gimme games from the teams we are being compared to as well. That's what nobody does when they engage in this retarded statistical game in an effort to prove that our offense only looks good becuase its averages are blown up by the games against lesser competition. Guess what? If you take away the yards and points that LSU or BAMA get on their cupcakes, their averages fall too!
The only way to do that comparison FAIRLY is to take away the gimme games from the teams we are being compared to as well. That's what nobody does when they engage in this retarded statistical game in an effort to prove that our offense only looks good becuase its averages are blown up by the games against lesser competition. Guess what? If you take away the yards and points that LSU or BAMA get on their cupcakes, their averages fall too!
Posted on 8/7/15 at 9:23 am to Farmer1906
quote:
Its not as simple as having plus DBs and playing man.
Of course LSU plays zone too. Bama runs a lot of cover 3, and Steele was there fro quite some time. LSU has too. I wasn't implying we just play man to man 100% of the time; that's ridiculous.
But Steele and Miles have both stated this D will be more aggressive with blitzes than in the past and that will require a lot of cover 1. Jamal Adams will be given a lot of responsibility in this scheme, making plays on balls and reading QBs. and as most of you should know by now, he or Tre are likely the best DBs in our secondary. Jamal is a monster.
But on 2nd and 3rd and long you will see a ton of man because LSU just flat out has the personnel back there.
quote:
Otherwise the air raid wouldn't exist
I don't know what this means.
This post was edited on 8/7/15 at 9:24 am
Posted on 8/7/15 at 10:28 am to cas4t
Not to flame but jamal Adams is going to struggle at times if you ask him to cover too much.
Posted on 8/10/15 at 11:07 am to AgBQ00
Posted on 8/10/15 at 12:05 pm to Iosh
Mandel and I have similar thoughts.
People keep mentioning next season as THE year, but I keep looking at our schedule and have a hard time remembering such a favorable lineup.
We have some issues for sure, but everyone else in the west is dealing with that as well. I finally feel like our team is on par talent and depth wise with most other SEC squads with the exception of Bama and maybe a couple others, but its a lot closer than the last three years.
It will be a grind for sure, but I think if you look objectively at us, there are reasons to expect big things out of this season.
People keep mentioning next season as THE year, but I keep looking at our schedule and have a hard time remembering such a favorable lineup.
We have some issues for sure, but everyone else in the west is dealing with that as well. I finally feel like our team is on par talent and depth wise with most other SEC squads with the exception of Bama and maybe a couple others, but its a lot closer than the last three years.
It will be a grind for sure, but I think if you look objectively at us, there are reasons to expect big things out of this season.
Posted on 8/10/15 at 12:11 pm to Bob Ag
After listening to Sumlin's interview yesterday when he called into Gabe; I get the impression he is more excited for this year and has bigger expectations than any year he has been here.
Posted on 8/10/15 at 12:28 pm to Nguyening
what makes you say that?
Jamal Adams is one of the better cover 1 safeties I've seen in a while.
Jamal Adams is one of the better cover 1 safeties I've seen in a while.
Posted on 8/10/15 at 1:06 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
That just isn't acceptable. We have like half a dozen five stars on offense and we couldn't do dick against teams that bothered to press our receivers.
if you are going to do that kind of statistical breakdown you should be going through and talking away the best offensive games from EVERY team.
You cant just say well take away their best performances and their averages fall in the rankings b/c that would happen to every single team.
and PS, SMU is still an FBS team
This post was edited on 8/10/15 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 8/10/15 at 3:44 pm to AgBQ00
quote:
ASU-W
Ball St-W
Nevada-W
Arkansas-W
MSU-W
Bama-L
Ole Miss-W
USCe-W
Auburn-L
W. Car-W
Vandy-W
LSU-W
thats fairly bold, but realistic. I'm not sold on auburn completely, but ima throw 3 losses in there cause outta bama, state, om, auburn, arkansas and lsu i think yall split.
ASU-W
Ball St-W
Nevada-W
Arkansas-L
MSU-W
Bama-L
Ole Miss-W
USCe-W
Auburn-L
W. Car-W
Vandy-W
LSU-W
that said, i think all games are winnable with bama being the toughest. yall arent outclassed in talent by any team (some may have more, but not in another league, etc), but you do have a bit of inexperience and a new scheme to work through.
wouldnt suprise me at all to see 10-2, but ima go with 9-3.
This post was edited on 8/10/15 at 3:45 pm
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