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re: Lets Talk Politics
Posted on 6/23/16 at 3:26 pm to Cooter Davenport
Posted on 6/23/16 at 3:26 pm to Cooter Davenport
Trump's been losing support from Repub officials on a near daily basis. Few come out and oppose him directly, but you're seeing more and more, for example, saying that the delegates at the RNC convention should be able to "vote their consciences".
If Trump keeps cratering all the way through the general, and the House gets to make the pick, why exactly would it be certain they would tap Trump instead of Johnson? Simply because Trump has a (nominal) R after his name?
...and I speak not as the biggest GJ fan. I've been very disappointed with some of his recent positions. But yes, he's still light-years better than Trump or Clinton.
If Trump keeps cratering all the way through the general, and the House gets to make the pick, why exactly would it be certain they would tap Trump instead of Johnson? Simply because Trump has a (nominal) R after his name?
...and I speak not as the biggest GJ fan. I've been very disappointed with some of his recent positions. But yes, he's still light-years better than Trump or Clinton.
This post was edited on 6/23/16 at 3:28 pm
1
Posted on 6/23/16 at 3:43 pm to Mirthomatic
Trump will be your next commander and chief
Posted on 6/23/16 at 4:14 pm to Old Sarge
Avatar bet? I'll take Hillary.
One year, until 2018?
One year, until 2018?
Posted on 6/23/16 at 4:25 pm to Hugo Stiglitz
Nope, I love my Avi
Posted on 6/23/16 at 6:46 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
Nope, I love my Avi
Priceless.
Posted on 6/24/16 at 10:17 am to Mirthomatic
Would someone like to lay out some basic ramifications of Brexit for a commoner that just finished a hell project at work?
I see a lot of talk about this helping Trump (His campaign manager/speech writer took full advantge of it in their press release), but I'm more curious about the "first domino to fall". What will we be looking at if the EU crumbles assuming others will follow suit in independence?
I see a lot of talk about this helping Trump (His campaign manager/speech writer took full advantge of it in their press release), but I'm more curious about the "first domino to fall". What will we be looking at if the EU crumbles assuming others will follow suit in independence?
Posted on 6/24/16 at 10:31 am to Pitch To Johnny
well right now we are looking at the tanking of the British economy (the pound has dropped to a 30 year low already) and possible collapse of the UK.
Scotland is likely going to leave now, Northern Ireland might follow suit, and Wales is going to get kicked in the junk so hard economically it will cause an even bigger exodus of it's population than it has already been dealing with.
The vote was non binding however and perhaps the fact that Nigel Farage and Daniel Hannan (major backers of Brexit) have already come out and admitted that two key reasons given for leaving won't actually happen (saving $350 million pounds per week that would go to schools/healthcare and curbing immigration) there is still an (EXTREMELY LOW) chance they might not go through with it.
Scotland is likely going to leave now, Northern Ireland might follow suit, and Wales is going to get kicked in the junk so hard economically it will cause an even bigger exodus of it's population than it has already been dealing with.
The vote was non binding however and perhaps the fact that Nigel Farage and Daniel Hannan (major backers of Brexit) have already come out and admitted that two key reasons given for leaving won't actually happen (saving $350 million pounds per week that would go to schools/healthcare and curbing immigration) there is still an (EXTREMELY LOW) chance they might not go through with it.
This post was edited on 6/24/16 at 10:51 am
Posted on 6/24/16 at 10:55 am to Dr RC
So if the predictable humongous shite storm that's hitting the British economy is now taking place, what was the whole point of brexit? My understanding was that the benefits were always rather minimal
Posted on 6/24/16 at 1:23 pm to WestCoastAg
The backers think it'll bring them more economic freedom and stability longterm. I doubt it will though once everything balances out. They will still be subject to same swings caused by the world markets that everyone else is.
I hope I'm wrong about it essentially being the beginning of the the end of the UK but I just can't see Scotland and Northern Ireland hanging around. Not sure you can count Wales and England as a UK.
I hope I'm wrong about it essentially being the beginning of the the end of the UK but I just can't see Scotland and Northern Ireland hanging around. Not sure you can count Wales and England as a UK.
Posted on 6/27/16 at 7:30 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:Anyone who thinks the case for Brexit was based on anything other than "wogs out" is either fooling themselves or trying to fool you. Economically, there were only ever two outcomes:
So if the predictable humongous shite storm that's hitting the British economy is now taking place, what was the whole point of brexit? My understanding was that the benefits were always rather minimal
(1) the UK gets a quick admission to EFTA and then has to obey most EU regulations (including free migration) and send them money anyway
(2) the UK tries to negotiate bilateral trade deals on their own and gets fricked in negotiations because their leverage is dropping by the week
The right-libertarians and old-money Tories might have a fantasy of overcoming this setback with massive deregulation that turns London into a Wild West version of Hong Kong. They're ignoring the demographics of the Leave vote; tons of mainline Labour voters in Yorkshire and Wales turned out for Leave and it wasn't because they wanted to give the bankers the keys to the kingdom.
The only silver lining I can find in all this is that the financial clusterfrick they've triggered might hasten the incipient divorce of capitalism and cultural conservatism.
This post was edited on 6/27/16 at 7:50 pm
Posted on 6/30/16 at 9:55 am to Iosh
The doom and gloom of the UK leaving a tightening superstate it has been a part of for a mere 17 years just blows my mind. Do any people here actually have any lasting commercial significant impact from the Brexit? I'm betting I'm the only one.
All the bullshite pouting from the EU is going to amount to a hill of beans. There is a LOT of money tied up in the UK banks right now that is going to do everything in their power to make this happen yesterday. The people who stand the most to lose from this are the people who own the EU politicians, and they aren't about to let this cause them to move their entire setup to Dublin overnight. You know how long it takes to get the approvals to do something like that?
The UK is not going to 'get fricked'.
I'll agree with this.
Scotland is talking about scheduling an EU referendum, which is probably 3 years away. The Scots will be trading the stability of the pound (Which despite all the bitching and moaning about the current drop, is longterm MUCH more stable than the Euro) for the collective currency of the Euro, either that or a home currency that is even more worthless.
The Euro is going to go farther down before it goes up. The UK wasn't even on it and it plummeted for Brexit. What happens when the Dutch or Poles or someone else has a referendum on the schedule? Even a close poll of the expected results will be enough to send the Euro to .75 or lower.
Everyone forgets the opposite reactions on the European side. Who picks up the tab of the 130 million or whatever number you want to call it?
There is no chance they don't go through with it.
quote:
(1) the UK gets a quick admission to EFTA and then has to obey most EU regulations (including free migration) and send them money anyway
All the bullshite pouting from the EU is going to amount to a hill of beans. There is a LOT of money tied up in the UK banks right now that is going to do everything in their power to make this happen yesterday. The people who stand the most to lose from this are the people who own the EU politicians, and they aren't about to let this cause them to move their entire setup to Dublin overnight. You know how long it takes to get the approvals to do something like that?
quote:
(2) the UK tries to negotiate bilateral trade deals on their own and gets fricked in negotiations because their leverage is dropping by the week
The UK is not going to 'get fricked'.
quote:
Anyone who thinks the case for Brexit was based on anything other than "wogs out" is either fooling themselves or trying to fool you.
I'll agree with this.
quote:
I hope I'm wrong about it essentially being the beginning of the the end of the UK but I just can't see Scotland and Northern Ireland hanging around. Not sure you can count Wales and England as a UK
Scotland is talking about scheduling an EU referendum, which is probably 3 years away. The Scots will be trading the stability of the pound (Which despite all the bitching and moaning about the current drop, is longterm MUCH more stable than the Euro) for the collective currency of the Euro, either that or a home currency that is even more worthless.
The Euro is going to go farther down before it goes up. The UK wasn't even on it and it plummeted for Brexit. What happens when the Dutch or Poles or someone else has a referendum on the schedule? Even a close poll of the expected results will be enough to send the Euro to .75 or lower.
Everyone forgets the opposite reactions on the European side. Who picks up the tab of the 130 million or whatever number you want to call it?
quote:
there is still an (EXTREMELY LOW) chance they might not go through with it.
There is no chance they don't go through with it.
Posted on 6/30/16 at 10:02 am to cokebottleag
quote:
Even a close poll of the expected results will be enough to send the Euro to .75 or lower.
I'll finally get that European vacation!
Posted on 6/30/16 at 5:07 pm to Cooter Davenport
This should be familiar to any of us:
Posted on 6/30/16 at 6:13 pm to Iosh
quote:
(2) the UK tries to negotiate bilateral trade deals on their own and gets fricked in negotiations because their leverage is dropping by the week
Go on, you're a smart fella, what percentage of the EU's trade does the uk make up?
Posted on 7/1/16 at 9:54 am to Old Sarge
quote:Depending on whose figures you believe, the UK makes up 15-20% of the EU's imports/exports, and the EU makes up 45-55% of the UK's imports/exports. I think this makes it fairly obvious who is more dependent on whom.
Go on, you're a smart fella, what percentage of the EU's trade does the uk make up?
There is also the fact that the pound is dropping compared to the euro and will probably continue to do so. It was already on a downward trend for the last year before Brexit. The UK Treasury has also suggested rate cuts and QE, which will further dilute the pound, as will the continued deficit spending since Osborne's plan was shot to hell by Brexit and whoever takes power next will probably be too gun-shy on the economy to make the any hard fiscal choices to restore solvency.
This post was edited on 7/1/16 at 9:56 am
Posted on 7/1/16 at 10:05 am to cokebottleag
quote:Where are you counting 17 years from? They joined the EEC common market in 1973, which was the main predecessor to the EU.
The doom and gloom of the UK leaving a tightening superstate it has been a part of for a mere 17 years just blows my mind.
quote:It doesn't have to happen overnight. They have two years from the UK triggering Article 50, whenever that turns out to be. And if the UK does get the same EEA deal as Norway, they won't have to move at all. But I very much doubt that deal would satisfy the Brexit camp since a Norway deal would require them to keep sending the EU contributions and accepting migrants.
All the bullshite pouting from the EU is going to amount to a hill of beans. There is a LOT of money tied up in the UK banks right now that is going to do everything in their power to make this happen yesterday. The people who stand the most to lose from this are the people who own the EU politicians, and they aren't about to let this cause them to move their entire setup to Dublin overnight. You know how long it takes to get the approvals to do something like that?
This post was edited on 7/1/16 at 10:08 am
Posted on 7/1/16 at 10:21 am to Iosh
quote:
But I very much doubt that deal would satisfy the Brexit camp
Seems like they lost a lot of leverage when their version of Trump was cock blocked from becoming the Prime Minister. The referendum was nonbinding and it seems no one has the balls to be the PM that invokes Article 50.
I expect a half-exit at this point.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 10:43 am to cardboardboxer
You've got one bit backwards. Boris was knifed because he was actually too wishy-washy about the EU. He was never a very hard Euroskeptic before the referendum and after the referendum he penned an op-ed that played to the center but had the hardliners worried about "Brexit lite." The Torygraph has a good behind the scenes.
Him being ousted makes it a lot more likely that Article 50 will eventually be triggered.
Him being ousted makes it a lot more likely that Article 50 will eventually be triggered.
This post was edited on 7/1/16 at 10:43 am
Posted on 7/1/16 at 10:45 am to Iosh
quote:
Him being ousted makes it a lot more likely that Article 50 will eventually be triggered.
Good info, thanks.
Posted on 7/1/16 at 11:39 pm to Iosh
quote:
It doesn't have to happen overnight. They have two years from the UK triggering Article 50, whenever that turns out to be. And if the UK does get the same EEA deal as Norway, they won't have to move at all. But I very much doubt that deal would satisfy the Brexit camp since a Norway deal would require them to keep sending the EU contributions and accepting migrants.
I expect they'll carve out a special deal that is different from the Norway one. The EU is nothing if not an endless patchwork.
quote:
Where are you counting 17 years from? They joined the EEC common market in 1973, which was the main predecessor to the EU.
My mistake, I'm counting from the Euro, but that makes no sense.
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