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Jake Spavital resume against top-40 defenses
Posted on 10/23/15 at 12:00 am
Posted on 10/23/15 at 12:00 am
Five career games
Record: 0-5
PPG: 16
YPG: 304
3rd down %: 27
TO Margin: -8
That's bad enough, but if you take out the garbage points and yards we got in the 4th quarter against OM last year our PPG drops to 13 and YPG drops to 278.
OM comes into this game ranked 42nd in total defense, but that is largely due to two bad games without several players they will have back this week.
Combine this with the poor weather forecast and it doesn't look good.
Record: 0-5
PPG: 16
YPG: 304
3rd down %: 27
TO Margin: -8
That's bad enough, but if you take out the garbage points and yards we got in the 4th quarter against OM last year our PPG drops to 13 and YPG drops to 278.
OM comes into this game ranked 42nd in total defense, but that is largely due to two bad games without several players they will have back this week.
Combine this with the poor weather forecast and it doesn't look good.
6
Posted on 10/23/15 at 12:04 am to Roger Klarvin
Not that it has anything to do with defense, but Tunsil returns correct?
Posted on 10/23/15 at 12:06 am to geauxnavybeatbama
Yes
Posted on 10/23/15 at 12:48 am to Roger Klarvin
Where are you getting the list of 5 top 40 defenses? Because Arky was the #10 Scoring Defense and #10 Total Defense in 2014.
And I do believe Spav "won" that game.
And I do believe Spav "won" that game.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 12:50 am to Mirthomatic
quote:
And I do believe Spav "won" that game.
Shhh! That doesn't fit the narrative!
Posted on 10/23/15 at 1:16 am to Mirthomatic
quote:
Where are you getting the list of 5 top 40 defenses? Because Arky was the #10 Scoring Defense and #10 Total Defense in 2014.
Arkansas finished 24th in total defense last year but the OP addresses defensive ranking at the time the game was played. Arkansaa was 68th in total defense when we faced them in 2014. I have little doubt that had we faced the Arkansas unit that ended the season we would not have fared well.
The five teams were Bama, OM, LSU and Mizzu last year and Bama this year.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 1:36 am to Roger Klarvin
Still not sure where you're getting your numbers. The official NCAA website has them #10 for the year.
LINK
The next game after we beat them, Arky held Bama to 14 points on 227 yards of offense. Are you really contending that the Arky defense got THAT much better in such a short time?
But let's look at the other defenses you listed, and their final/current defensive rankings:
2014
Bama - #12
OM - #13
LSU - #9
Mizzou - #23
2015
Bama - #6
Given those final rankings, I have a hard time believing any of those units were anywhere close to being ranked all the way down around 40, even when we played them.
LINK
The next game after we beat them, Arky held Bama to 14 points on 227 yards of offense. Are you really contending that the Arky defense got THAT much better in such a short time?
But let's look at the other defenses you listed, and their final/current defensive rankings:
2014
Bama - #12
OM - #13
LSU - #9
Mizzou - #23
2015
Bama - #6
Given those final rankings, I have a hard time believing any of those units were anywhere close to being ranked all the way down around 40, even when we played them.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 1:38 am to Mirthomatic
Posted on 10/23/15 at 1:53 am to Roger Klarvin
Looks like the ESPN stats don't include the bowl games.
But whichever you prefer, I think the larger point stands that it's reeeally a stretch to characterize those defenses as "top 40". Four of the defenses you listed I'd call top 10-15.
But whichever you prefer, I think the larger point stands that it's reeeally a stretch to characterize those defenses as "top 40". Four of the defenses you listed I'd call top 10-15.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:15 am to Roger Klarvin
POST 1
If we're going to analyze it, let's ANALYZE IT.
Spavital's games as offensive coordinator. Total defense number has a T in front of it, scoring defense number has an S in front of it:
2013 - Duke (T82/S63)
52 points (7 came off an interception return)
541 yards
44% on 3rd down
+2 Turnover Margin
2014 - South Carolina (T92/S89)
52 points
680 yards
70.5% on 3rd down
+1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Lamar (N/A - FCS)
73 points
630 yards
64.3% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Rice (T54/S80)
38 points
477 yards
37.5% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - SMU (T119/S124)
58 points
663 yards
54.5% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
If we're going to analyze it, let's ANALYZE IT.
Spavital's games as offensive coordinator. Total defense number has a T in front of it, scoring defense number has an S in front of it:
2013 - Duke (T82/S63)
52 points (7 came off an interception return)
541 yards
44% on 3rd down
+2 Turnover Margin
2014 - South Carolina (T92/S89)
52 points
680 yards
70.5% on 3rd down
+1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Lamar (N/A - FCS)
73 points
630 yards
64.3% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Rice (T54/S80)
38 points
477 yards
37.5% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - SMU (T119/S124)
58 points
663 yards
54.5% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:22 am to CGSC Lobotomy
POST 2
2014 - Arkansas (T10/S10)
35 points
523 yards
30.7% on 3rd down
Even Turnover Margin
2014 - Mississippi State (T84/S23)
31 points
526 yards
29.4% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Ole Miss (T13/S1)
20 points
455 yards
38.9% on 3rd down
-3 Turnover Margin
2014 - Alabama (T12/S6)
0 points
172 yards
15.4% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Louisiana Monroe (T47/S57)
21 points
243 yards
41.2% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Arkansas (T10/S10)
35 points
523 yards
30.7% on 3rd down
Even Turnover Margin
2014 - Mississippi State (T84/S23)
31 points
526 yards
29.4% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Ole Miss (T13/S1)
20 points
455 yards
38.9% on 3rd down
-3 Turnover Margin
2014 - Alabama (T12/S6)
0 points
172 yards
15.4% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Louisiana Monroe (T47/S57)
21 points
243 yards
41.2% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:29 am to CGSC Lobotomy
POST 3
2014 - Auburn (T64/S62)
41 points (7 came on a blocked FG)
453 yards
40% on 3rd down
+2 Turnover Margin
2014 - Missouri (T23/S19)
27 points
341 yards
28.6% on 3rd down
Even Turnover Margin
2014 - LSU (T9/S5)
17 points
228 yards
36.4% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - West Virginia (T66/S72)
45 points
529 yards
37.5% on 3rd down
Even Turnover Margin
2015 - Arizona State (T60/S73)
38 points (7 on a punt return)
425 yards
44.4% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - Auburn (T64/S62)
41 points (7 came on a blocked FG)
453 yards
40% on 3rd down
+2 Turnover Margin
2014 - Missouri (T23/S19)
27 points
341 yards
28.6% on 3rd down
Even Turnover Margin
2014 - LSU (T9/S5)
17 points
228 yards
36.4% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2014 - West Virginia (T66/S72)
45 points
529 yards
37.5% on 3rd down
Even Turnover Margin
2015 - Arizona State (T60/S73)
38 points (7 on a punt return)
425 yards
44.4% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:34 am to CGSC Lobotomy
LAST POST
2015 - Ball State (T116/S108)
56 points
503 yards
64.3% on 3rd down
Even Turnover Margin
2015 - Nevada (T92/S79)
44 points
535 yards
33.3% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2015 - Arkansas (T45/S45)
28 points
423 yards
22.2% on 3rd down
+2 Turnover Margin
2015 - Mississippi State (T47/S22)
30 points
516 yards
50% on 3rd down
+2 Turnover Margin
2015 - Alabama (T6/S15)
23 points (7 came off a punt return)
316 yards
38.9% on 3rd down
-3 Turnover Margin
2015 - Ball State (T116/S108)
56 points
503 yards
64.3% on 3rd down
Even Turnover Margin
2015 - Nevada (T92/S79)
44 points
535 yards
33.3% on 3rd down
-1 Turnover Margin
2015 - Arkansas (T45/S45)
28 points
423 yards
22.2% on 3rd down
+2 Turnover Margin
2015 - Mississippi State (T47/S22)
30 points
516 yards
50% on 3rd down
+2 Turnover Margin
2015 - Alabama (T6/S15)
23 points (7 came off a punt return)
316 yards
38.9% on 3rd down
-3 Turnover Margin
Posted on 10/23/15 at 3:42 am to CGSC Lobotomy
What can we take away from this?
Let's look at turnover margin.
In games in which A&M had a positive turnover margin (5 games), the Aggies were 5-0 and averaged 40.6 ppg and 522.6 yards per game.
In games in which A&M had an EVEN turnover margin (4 games), the Aggies were 3-1, splitting the two meetings vs. teams with top 25 scoring or total defense rankings and crushing the teams with bad defenses.
In games in which A&M had a negative turnover margin (11 games), the Aggies were 6-5 (0-2 with a turnover margin of -2 or worse). When having a negative turnover margin against a team with a top 25 scoring or total defense, the Aggies were 0-5.
In closing, TURNOVERS are the key.
Let's look at turnover margin.
In games in which A&M had a positive turnover margin (5 games), the Aggies were 5-0 and averaged 40.6 ppg and 522.6 yards per game.
In games in which A&M had an EVEN turnover margin (4 games), the Aggies were 3-1, splitting the two meetings vs. teams with top 25 scoring or total defense rankings and crushing the teams with bad defenses.
In games in which A&M had a negative turnover margin (11 games), the Aggies were 6-5 (0-2 with a turnover margin of -2 or worse). When having a negative turnover margin against a team with a top 25 scoring or total defense, the Aggies were 0-5.
In closing, TURNOVERS are the key.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 7:41 am to Roger Klarvin
quote:
but the OP addresses defensive ranking at the time the game was played
I don't disagree with your overall message here (though I think you're exaggerating it a bit) but this is kind of stupid.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 8:15 am to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Record: 0-5
PPG: 16
YPG: 304
3rd down %: 27
TO Margin: -8
Ok, I'm probably the biggest sunshine pumper on the board, and this is pretty indefensible.
EDIT: And now after reading the rest of the thread, it seems this isn't accurate.
This post was edited on 10/23/15 at 8:17 am
Posted on 10/23/15 at 9:37 am to Roger Klarvin
Spav is 2-0 against undefeated football teams this season. Fact. Ole Miss has two losses. They should be no problem.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 10:42 am to CGSC Lobotomy
"In closing, TURNOVERS are the key."
This football dictum has been true since about the 1890's. Turnovers is why Bama lost to Ole Miss. Turnovers are why we lost to Bama.
Secure the football and our chances of winning against any opponent go way up. Period.
This football dictum has been true since about the 1890's. Turnovers is why Bama lost to Ole Miss. Turnovers are why we lost to Bama.
Secure the football and our chances of winning against any opponent go way up. Period.
Posted on 10/23/15 at 12:28 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Jake Spavital
You mean Spaz-it-all?
Posted on 10/23/15 at 2:01 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:
the OP addresses defensive ranking at the time the game was played.
so what you are saying is you aren't interested in actually having an intellectually honest discussion and would rather bend the facts to fit your narrative?
This post was edited on 10/23/15 at 2:01 pm
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