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Alabama scoring offense/defense (post-bye) analysis
Posted on 10/11/15 at 11:28 am
Posted on 10/11/15 at 11:28 am
With the bye week numbers, the outlook changes a little, but not all that much.
A&M's scoring offense and defense averages don't change (39.2 ppg scored, 21.0 ppg allowed; 29 ppg scored/19 ppg allowed vs. SEC only).
Vs. all opponents, A&M scores 13.1 ppg more than their opponents allow (Arkansas was the outlier at +4.8) and allows 7.2 ppg fewer than their opponents score (wide disparity going from -15.3 for Mississippi State to +1.3 for Nevada). Vs. SEC opponents, A&M scores 8.6 more per game than their opponents allow and allows 9.1 fewer than their opponents score.
Alabama averages 34.7 ppg (34 ppg vs. SEC) and allows 15.7 ppg (22.3 ppg vs. SEC).
Against all opponents, Alabama scores 11.7 more than its opponents allow (12.5 vs. SEC) and allows 16.7 fewer than its opponents score (-20.4 vs. SEC).
Using A&M's numbers, you get A&M 29, Alabama 27 (A&M 31, Alabama 25 with SEC numbers).
Using Alabama's numbers, you get Alabama 33, A&M 23 (Alabama 31, A&M 9 with SEC numbers).
What this tells us is that the analysis is inconclusive because the results are so drastic based on the bias.
To recap:
A&M's numbers give you
A&M: 29-31
Alabama: 25-27
Alabama's numbers give you
Alabama: 31-33
A&M: 9-23
This means absolutely nothing and can't generate a prediction.
However, here are the predictions of the A&M analysis for our last 2 games and the resulting outcome:
Arkansas - A&M 27, Arkansas 17 (A&M 28, Arkansas 21)
Mississippi State - A&M 30, Mississippi State 27 (A&M 30, Mississippi State 17)
A&M's scoring offense and defense averages don't change (39.2 ppg scored, 21.0 ppg allowed; 29 ppg scored/19 ppg allowed vs. SEC only).
Vs. all opponents, A&M scores 13.1 ppg more than their opponents allow (Arkansas was the outlier at +4.8) and allows 7.2 ppg fewer than their opponents score (wide disparity going from -15.3 for Mississippi State to +1.3 for Nevada). Vs. SEC opponents, A&M scores 8.6 more per game than their opponents allow and allows 9.1 fewer than their opponents score.
Alabama averages 34.7 ppg (34 ppg vs. SEC) and allows 15.7 ppg (22.3 ppg vs. SEC).
Against all opponents, Alabama scores 11.7 more than its opponents allow (12.5 vs. SEC) and allows 16.7 fewer than its opponents score (-20.4 vs. SEC).
Using A&M's numbers, you get A&M 29, Alabama 27 (A&M 31, Alabama 25 with SEC numbers).
Using Alabama's numbers, you get Alabama 33, A&M 23 (Alabama 31, A&M 9 with SEC numbers).
What this tells us is that the analysis is inconclusive because the results are so drastic based on the bias.
To recap:
A&M's numbers give you
A&M: 29-31
Alabama: 25-27
Alabama's numbers give you
Alabama: 31-33
A&M: 9-23
This means absolutely nothing and can't generate a prediction.
However, here are the predictions of the A&M analysis for our last 2 games and the resulting outcome:
Arkansas - A&M 27, Arkansas 17 (A&M 28, Arkansas 21)
Mississippi State - A&M 30, Mississippi State 27 (A&M 30, Mississippi State 17)
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