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A&M will be fine with Sumlin
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:00 pm
Counterpoint to all this Sumlin hate...
We are all upset about what could have been vs. what is, but this team has matched or exceeded expectations for this year.
Pros:
1) Good to great recruiting class joining the program possible with both Jarrett Stidham and Mond.
2) Instability in Big 12/TX. Sips, BU, and TT are in turmoil. TCU suffered 5 losses with Kenny Trill (doesn't fit the narrative before this year...). UH is probably the next "tiny" dominos to fall.
3) State of the SEC West. Arky is still Arky. Ole Miss is going to get slammed. LSU is searching for a coach.
This all puts us in great position for the next 2 years. If Sumlin hasn't produced we will have plenty of time to hire a "real" coach, possibly a former NFL guy, without negative financial repurcussions to the athletic department.
We are all upset about what could have been vs. what is, but this team has matched or exceeded expectations for this year.
Pros:
1) Good to great recruiting class joining the program possible with both Jarrett Stidham and Mond.
2) Instability in Big 12/TX. Sips, BU, and TT are in turmoil. TCU suffered 5 losses with Kenny Trill (doesn't fit the narrative before this year...). UH is probably the next "tiny" dominos to fall.
3) State of the SEC West. Arky is still Arky. Ole Miss is going to get slammed. LSU is searching for a coach.
This all puts us in great position for the next 2 years. If Sumlin hasn't produced we will have plenty of time to hire a "real" coach, possibly a former NFL guy, without negative financial repurcussions to the athletic department.
7
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:06 pm to Chill98
quote:
We are all upset about what could have been
If we really think about this rationally (a lot to ask, I know) an 11-1 finish likely puts us in the Sugar Bowl. You can claim all you want about "oh what if we snuck in the playoff as a 4-seed?". If that miracle had happened, and it would have been a miracle, we would have been stomped by Bama...again. No, it's much more likely we would have gotten the Sugar Bowl. And hey, guess what! If Florida loses their next two, Auburn loses to Bama, and we beat lolsu...Sugar Bowl bound. Tennessee isn't getting it ahead of us. Auburn wouldn't get it ahead of us. We beat both of those teams. It wouldn't make sense for them to be ranked ahead of us with the same records. UT lost to South Carolina. Auburn to Georgia. We all have a bad loss. It happens to everyone. Beating the Mississippi teams wouldn't have changed anything except narratives and mindsets. The outcome of the season will be the same if we get out there on Thursday and BTHO lolsu.
Remember, football is fun.
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:33 pm to Chill98
While I agree, your should prepare thy anus for rebuttals.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:50 pm to AggieDub14
quote:
If that miracle had happened, and it would have been a miracle, we would have been stomped by Bama...again.
With the way this season has gone, we wouldn't necessarily play Alabama.
Let's assume for a minute that we didn't have explosive diarrhea all over the field on November 5th and 12th:
Week 11's top 6 would likely look like this:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Texas A&M
5. Ohio State after they crushed 10. Nebraska
6. Washington
Week 12's top 6, after the upsets that happened, would look like this:
1. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. Louisville
The poll this week would then look like this in the top 6:
1. Alabama
2. Texas A&M
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. Washington
Carrying this to its likely conclusion, we would NOT play Alabama in the playoff. We'd either play
Ohio State - if they win out and Penn State loses to Michigan State
Michigan - if they win out
Clemson - if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten
or Washington - if Wisconsin wins the Big Ten and Virginia Tech wins the ACC
We would not be matched up with Alabama in the Peach Bowl.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:03 pm to Chill98
quote:
1) Good to great recruiting class joining the program possible with both Jarrett Stidham and Mond.
The best we can finish this season is 15th in recruiting based off our current point total, spaces available, and lack of commits with teams ahead of us.
quote:
2) Instability in Big 12/TX. Sips, BU, and TT are in turmoil. TCU suffered 5 losses with Kenny Trill (doesn't fit the narrative before this year...). UH is probably the next "tiny" dominos to fall.
Oklahoma is still out-recruiting us and has for the last couple of seasons.
quote:
3) State of the SEC West. Arky is still Arky. Ole Miss is going to get slammed. LSU is searching for a coach.
-Unless Ole Miss gets slammed SMU-style, they have beaten our dumbass coach for the last three years now and have what could be the next coming of Johnny Manziel at QB.
-LSU without a coach is STILL better than our dumbass coach
-Auburn is only going to get better
-Even Mississippi State is pushing our shite in now
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:19 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
We wouldn't be ranked above 12-1 Michigan. We wouldn't be ranked above 12-1 Clemson. We probably wouldn't be ranked above 12-1 Washington. So in the miracle shot of us getting top 4 after conference champions had been decided, we would most likely be 4th. Your analysis is just straight wrong.
Let's revisit this on December 4th.
Let's revisit this on December 4th.
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:37 pm to AggieDub14
We have two bad losses. Also you are seriously overestimating the committee if you think we will get in over Tennessee just because we beat them head to head.
The difference between going 11-1 and likely finishing in the top 3 if we won a bowl and going 9-3 with an outside chance at finishing in the top if we won a bowl is a huge for perception
The difference between going 11-1 and likely finishing in the top 3 if we won a bowl and going 9-3 with an outside chance at finishing in the top if we won a bowl is a huge for perception
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:48 pm to Chill98
quote:
This all puts us in great position for the next 2 years.
We are going to get wrecked next year. Wrecked.
This year's class can finish no better than 15th, if we get Stidham. IF.
After the wreckage that will be next season, following the regular collapse in November that occurred this year, our next recruiting class is going to be garbage.
I completely disagree that the next two years are going to be "great". We're going to get dog-stomped on the field and then have an awful recruiting class due to a lame-duck coach.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:49 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
Tennessee lost to SC and us. Seems pretty clear to me we should be ahead of them.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:56 pm to Cooter Davenport
Our recruiting class is not going to be good. Our talent next year is not going to be good.
If Sumlin is smart he walks for another job this year and takes a buyout hit instead of a reputation hit.
He isn't sniffing another job after he goes 5-7 next year.
If Sumlin is smart he walks for another job this year and takes a buyout hit instead of a reputation hit.
He isn't sniffing another job after he goes 5-7 next year.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:11 pm to Nguyening
unless Roger's supposed smear campaign to get out of paying Sumlin's buyout comes to fruition to claim that Sumlin will never be a HC again is asinine to the Nth degree.Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:17 pm to Chill98
I get all of this. However, if you do look at this objectively we aren't really progressing year to year. Also, we aren't very good... we are pretty good.
We are 1-8 (probably 1-9 after Thursday) over a 5 year period vs the best 2 teams in the SECW. I think we ought to have our sights set quite bit higher given the budget of our athletic department, our facilities, the benefits of recruiting that we enjoy as the only team in Texas in the SEC, and of course our ability to pay coaches a hell of a lot of money.
If 3rd place and a very occasional 2nd place in our division is all it takes to keep a HC job at Texas A&M in the best conference in the nation then let's just own it. Let's don't pretend anymore. Let's call 2nd place our ceiling and be happy whenever we hit it.
Our current trajectory is Big 12 type of accomplishments in the SEC over a 15 year stretch.... we are 1/3 of the way there now.
We are 1-8 (probably 1-9 after Thursday) over a 5 year period vs the best 2 teams in the SECW. I think we ought to have our sights set quite bit higher given the budget of our athletic department, our facilities, the benefits of recruiting that we enjoy as the only team in Texas in the SEC, and of course our ability to pay coaches a hell of a lot of money.
If 3rd place and a very occasional 2nd place in our division is all it takes to keep a HC job at Texas A&M in the best conference in the nation then let's just own it. Let's don't pretend anymore. Let's call 2nd place our ceiling and be happy whenever we hit it.
Our current trajectory is Big 12 type of accomplishments in the SEC over a 15 year stretch.... we are 1/3 of the way there now.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:18 pm to Nguyening
quote:
He isn't sniffing another job after he goes 5-7 next year.
He isn't going to get to get a job worth $15 million walking away after this year either.
I am actually pretty hopeful about next year. Not for any rational reason- for rational reasons we will suck. But simply for the fact that we do best when nothing is expected of us.
2010 was supposed to be the end of Sherman and he surprised everyone.
2012 was supposed to be the winless first SEC season and we surprised everyone.
This year we did great when no one expected crap out of us. Then we finally get some hype from beating Tenn and our wheels fall off.
If we could get through an entire season in a media vacuum- like nothing we do got press- we would win a freaking national title. We just suck as a program on the big stage. We read our own press clippings and fall apart.
Next year no one will expect anything, and we won't have a way to prove ourselves until October. That smells like another eight win season.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:20 pm to Tridentds
quote:
If 3rd place and a very occasional 2nd place in our division is all it takes to keep a HC job at Texas A&M in the best conference in the nation then let's just own it. Let's don't pretend anymore. Let's call 2nd place our ceiling and be happy whenever we hit it.
That is what Ole Miss fans do. So we have a template to follow.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:25 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
simply for the fact that we do best when nothing is expected of us.
In other words...
We excel at beating low expectations.
Surely we can occasionally excel at beating high expectations. Tell me this is at least a possibility at Texas A&M.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:26 pm to Tridentds
It certainly is, but we have to realize the SEC West is the hardest division in college football and anyone can beat anyone. 2nd place in the division will be a 5-3 team.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:27 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
That is what Ole Miss fans do. So we have a template to follow.
Yep. I think some are falling into this mindset. I don't like that at all.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:30 pm to AggieDub14
quote:
It certainly is, but we have to realize the SEC West is the hardest division in college football and anyone can beat anyone. 2nd place in the division will be a 5-3 team.
It was absolutely not the hardest division in college football this year. I don't expect us to be beating out Saban for the West when he's there but every other SEC West program had a disappointing year by their standards and we could not take advantage of it. That is what is most frustrating about this season
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:33 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
Next year no one will expect anything, and we won't have a way to prove ourselves until October. That smells like another eight win season.
UCLA and South Carolina are both potential losses in September. Keep in mind Will Muschamp has never lost at Kyle Field as an assistant or a head coach (4-0)
We could potentially go 0-October and 1-2 in November.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:36 pm to Tridentds
quote:
We excel at beating low expectations.
We don't just excel at it, we beat the shite out of them.
It isn't like people expected 6 wins all those years and we got seven. People expected us to get 5 wins all those years and we got 10, 12, and either 8 or 9 or 10.
I think it is less the fact we can hit a low bar and more the fact that we are very unpredictable. Which is bad for us because eventually people will raise the bar on you.
quote:
Surely we can occasionally excel at beating high expectations. Tell me this is at least a possibility at Texas A&M.
I don't have the evidence to even say it's a possibility. You have to go back to RC to find a year where we started off ranked high in the preseason and then stayed within the top 25. And even in the RC years the formula still applied. The 1998 Big 12 title was an upset- we weren't expected to win. And under RC when we went to high profile bowls- and therefore had high expectations- we got our doors blown off.
I hate hate hate the whole sip theory of "it doesn't matter who the coach at A&M is, they always choke when it matters." I feel like being confident that we will be held back by some sort of program curse is like believing in ghosts. With that said, we don't have a lot of evidence to dispel the ghost story so it might not be the correlation that we want it to be.
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