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Posted on 4/25/15 at 11:54 pm to Agforlife
quote:
I didn't watch today and y'all are welcome. I can't watch anymore games, I watch we lose, so y'all gonna have to keep this thread updated better so I don't have to watch
You da real MVP
Posted on 4/26/15 at 7:52 am to TbirdSpur2010
I'll be at the game Tuesday. We're undefeated in games I've been to this year (4-0 or 5-0). I plan on going to at least 1 or 2 more weekend games and the regional.
Posted on 4/26/15 at 9:06 am to Farmer1906
Stolen from tiger rant, remaining schedules of top 6 teams in SEC. We are in the same boat as LSU but Arky has a cake walk to the finish line.
West
LSU
Ms State 6-14
Mizzou 12-8
S Carolina 9-11
Total 27-33 0.450
Texas A&M
Tenn 6-14
S Carolina 9-11
Ole Miss 10-10
Total 25-35 0.417
Arkansas
Bama 7-13
Tenn 6-14
Georgia 6-14
Total 19-41 0.317
East
Vandy
UK 10-9
Fla 12-8
Bama 7-13
Total 29-30 0.491
Florida
Georgia 6-14
Vandy 14-6
Auburn 10-11
Total 30-31 0.492
Missouri
UK 10-9
LSU 14-6
Ole Miss 10-10
Total 35-25 0.576
West
LSU
Ms State 6-14
Mizzou 12-8
S Carolina 9-11
Total 27-33 0.450
Texas A&M
Tenn 6-14
S Carolina 9-11
Ole Miss 10-10
Total 25-35 0.417
Arkansas
Bama 7-13
Tenn 6-14
Georgia 6-14
Total 19-41 0.317
East
Vandy
UK 10-9
Fla 12-8
Bama 7-13
Total 29-30 0.491
Florida
Georgia 6-14
Vandy 14-6
Auburn 10-11
Total 30-31 0.492
Missouri
UK 10-9
LSU 14-6
Ole Miss 10-10
Total 35-25 0.576
Posted on 4/26/15 at 9:53 am to Old Sarge
A sweep vs UT would go along way and wouldn't be out of the question at all. They're not good. That would give us breathing room is something happened vs USCe and Ole Miss, mainly Ole Miss. I really think we get ahold of USCe's pitching (almost a 5.00 ERA in conference and they haven't faced A&M or LSU yet)
Posted on 4/26/15 at 10:04 am to Farmer1906
quote:
and the regional.
We are counting on you.
Posted on 4/26/15 at 10:19 am to cardboardboxer
quote:
We are counting on you.
And Supers if they're at Olsen or close by.
Posted on 4/27/15 at 1:21 pm to Farmer1906
Okay, it's about time to start talking about National Seeds. There's always the chance that someone slumps or someone gets on fire but here's where I see it as of now. Boyds still hasn't been updated since Saturday so I'm using WN rpis
Good Shape
LSU (RPI 5) 37-7 SEC: holds an impressive 18-6 record vs top 50. No 100+ losses. Only 1 series loss (UK) on season. Won series vs another NS contender
UCLA (RPI 1) 31-9 PAC: 12-7 vs top 50 but has not dropped a series this year. They did get swept in the Dodgertown Classic early in season which has hurt their overall record.
A&M (RPI 4) 37-7 SEC: 13-5 vs top 50. No 100+ losses. Lost 2 series on year but one was @ #1 LSU.
Louisville (RPI 17) 34-10 ACC: 13-4 vs top 50. Leading ACC by 4.5 games. Early season series loss to 100+ RPI Ark St but clean since. Midweek vs Vandy and big weekend with FSU remain that could cause a ripple but right now they look in good shape despite lower RPI
On Bubble
Florida State (RPI 6) 33-13 ACC: 11-6 vs top 50. Real up and down resume. 2 series losses and one was bad (to UGA). Currently 4.5 games back of UL in ACC Atl division. Series left at UL and a win there could have the two flip spots
Vanderbilt (RPI 14) 33-12 SEC: 7-5 vs top 50. Currently leading the SEC. Two series losses and 4 100+ RPI losses. Need to really close strong but can with series vs UF and a midweek vs UL. 10 of 11 remaining games vs top 50 RPI
TCU (RPI 7) 34-8 B12: 7-4 vs top 50. Big 12 weakness is hurting them. 2 series losses including home to only other viable B12 team. Also only have one top 50 RPI series win and it's against a team that may not make field. Hard to make a strong case for a national seed if they don't win 5th rated B12 outright. Top 50 wins are rather light and only have 1 more top 50 RPI game
Florida (RPI 8) 33-12 SEC: 9-8 vs top 50. Has played a difficult schedule but has lost 3 SEC series plus 2 of 3 midweeks to FSU. Top 50 record lacks excitement but has series win vs Miami and still a series left at Vandy to state their case.
USC (RPI 10) 30-12 PAC: 7-6 vs top 50. The Pac is probably not a strong enough conference to support multiple National Seeds and they are currently sitting in 4th. Only 2 series losses and that's solid but nothing jumps out about the resume otherwise. Have chance to finish strong and force themselves into mix
Ohio State (RPI 12) 31-10 B1G: 6-4 vs top 50. Hard to say in B1G. Have Illinois and Maryland left so chance to make the case. Think if either OSU or Ill can distance themselves they are very much in the mix. Series this weekend will have one emerge but even if they win, neither can afford a further stumble.
Miami (RPI 3) 30-13 ACC: 7-10 vs top 50. No 100+ losses. Have dropped 4 series on the season but 3 were to NS contenders (UF, FSU, UL). Have to think those head-to-head losses will come back to bite them if it's close between those teams
Illinois (RPI 22) 35-6-1 B1G: 7-3 vs top 50. Leading B1G but need to win it outright. Higher RPI but have not lost series on year and have series win @ Ok St. Committee has overlooked RPI in past for northern teams bc scheduling can be difficult. Need to win upcoming series vs OSU and Nebraska but in mix
Need Miracle
DBU (RPI 2) 32-9 MVC: 7-6 vs top 50 but 4 of those are vs ORU who will probably fall out. It's hard to consider them a national seed with fewer than 10 top 50 wins, much less 3. They only have 2 more on schedule. With the inevitable drop in SOS coming, it's hard to see them as a viable contender despite their current RPI.
Missouri State (RPI 9) 30-10 MVC: 3-3 vs top 50. That pretty much says it all. 3 game set with Bradley still to come. Midweek vs Mizzou. But even winning out it's hard to see them maintaining a top 10 RPI and thus are not viable
Florida Atlantic (RPI 11) 33-10 CUSA: 6-3 vs top 50. No strong series wins and loss to MTSU. Hard to see a team not even leading the 8th rated conference as viable national seed material
Oklahoma State (RPI 13) 29-14 B12: 6-9 vs top 50. Currently leading B12. Only 1 more top 50 RPI game and can't see how a high loss team in a weak RPI league with a losing record vs top 50 would be considered no matter final RPI
Arizona St (RPI 23) 28-12 PAC: 5-4 vs top 50. Currently sit in 2nd in Pac with series remaining vs UCLA and USC. Seem to be on outside looking in with record and lack of big wins but one of the few left with real shot at huge finish. Have series win vs Ok St and loss to TCU.
Good Shape
LSU (RPI 5) 37-7 SEC: holds an impressive 18-6 record vs top 50. No 100+ losses. Only 1 series loss (UK) on season. Won series vs another NS contender
UCLA (RPI 1) 31-9 PAC: 12-7 vs top 50 but has not dropped a series this year. They did get swept in the Dodgertown Classic early in season which has hurt their overall record.
A&M (RPI 4) 37-7 SEC: 13-5 vs top 50. No 100+ losses. Lost 2 series on year but one was @ #1 LSU.
Louisville (RPI 17) 34-10 ACC: 13-4 vs top 50. Leading ACC by 4.5 games. Early season series loss to 100+ RPI Ark St but clean since. Midweek vs Vandy and big weekend with FSU remain that could cause a ripple but right now they look in good shape despite lower RPI
On Bubble
Florida State (RPI 6) 33-13 ACC: 11-6 vs top 50. Real up and down resume. 2 series losses and one was bad (to UGA). Currently 4.5 games back of UL in ACC Atl division. Series left at UL and a win there could have the two flip spots
Vanderbilt (RPI 14) 33-12 SEC: 7-5 vs top 50. Currently leading the SEC. Two series losses and 4 100+ RPI losses. Need to really close strong but can with series vs UF and a midweek vs UL. 10 of 11 remaining games vs top 50 RPI
TCU (RPI 7) 34-8 B12: 7-4 vs top 50. Big 12 weakness is hurting them. 2 series losses including home to only other viable B12 team. Also only have one top 50 RPI series win and it's against a team that may not make field. Hard to make a strong case for a national seed if they don't win 5th rated B12 outright. Top 50 wins are rather light and only have 1 more top 50 RPI game
Florida (RPI 8) 33-12 SEC: 9-8 vs top 50. Has played a difficult schedule but has lost 3 SEC series plus 2 of 3 midweeks to FSU. Top 50 record lacks excitement but has series win vs Miami and still a series left at Vandy to state their case.
USC (RPI 10) 30-12 PAC: 7-6 vs top 50. The Pac is probably not a strong enough conference to support multiple National Seeds and they are currently sitting in 4th. Only 2 series losses and that's solid but nothing jumps out about the resume otherwise. Have chance to finish strong and force themselves into mix
Ohio State (RPI 12) 31-10 B1G: 6-4 vs top 50. Hard to say in B1G. Have Illinois and Maryland left so chance to make the case. Think if either OSU or Ill can distance themselves they are very much in the mix. Series this weekend will have one emerge but even if they win, neither can afford a further stumble.
Miami (RPI 3) 30-13 ACC: 7-10 vs top 50. No 100+ losses. Have dropped 4 series on the season but 3 were to NS contenders (UF, FSU, UL). Have to think those head-to-head losses will come back to bite them if it's close between those teams
Illinois (RPI 22) 35-6-1 B1G: 7-3 vs top 50. Leading B1G but need to win it outright. Higher RPI but have not lost series on year and have series win @ Ok St. Committee has overlooked RPI in past for northern teams bc scheduling can be difficult. Need to win upcoming series vs OSU and Nebraska but in mix
Need Miracle
DBU (RPI 2) 32-9 MVC: 7-6 vs top 50 but 4 of those are vs ORU who will probably fall out. It's hard to consider them a national seed with fewer than 10 top 50 wins, much less 3. They only have 2 more on schedule. With the inevitable drop in SOS coming, it's hard to see them as a viable contender despite their current RPI.
Missouri State (RPI 9) 30-10 MVC: 3-3 vs top 50. That pretty much says it all. 3 game set with Bradley still to come. Midweek vs Mizzou. But even winning out it's hard to see them maintaining a top 10 RPI and thus are not viable
Florida Atlantic (RPI 11) 33-10 CUSA: 6-3 vs top 50. No strong series wins and loss to MTSU. Hard to see a team not even leading the 8th rated conference as viable national seed material
Oklahoma State (RPI 13) 29-14 B12: 6-9 vs top 50. Currently leading B12. Only 1 more top 50 RPI game and can't see how a high loss team in a weak RPI league with a losing record vs top 50 would be considered no matter final RPI
Arizona St (RPI 23) 28-12 PAC: 5-4 vs top 50. Currently sit in 2nd in Pac with series remaining vs UCLA and USC. Seem to be on outside looking in with record and lack of big wins but one of the few left with real shot at huge finish. Have series win vs Ok St and loss to TCU.
Posted on 4/27/15 at 1:49 pm to tmc94
A little deeper look at the top 50 wins. A&M and LSU look the best.
TEAM / vs top 25 / vs 26-50
LSU / 5-2 / 13-4
UCLA / 4-5 / 8-2
A&M / 6-2 / 7-3
Ville / 3-4 / 10-2
FSU / 6-2 / 5-4
Vandy / 3-3 / 4-2
TCU / 6-4 / 1-0
UF / 5-3 / 4-5
tOSU / 4-3 / 2-1
Miami / 6-8 / 1-2
Illi / 4-2 / 3-1
DBU / 3-6 / 4-0
Miz St / 2-2 / 1-1
FAU / 3-3 / 3-0
Ok St / 6-6 / 0-3
ASU / 3-3 / 2-1
TEAM / vs top 25 / vs 26-50
LSU / 5-2 / 13-4
UCLA / 4-5 / 8-2
A&M / 6-2 / 7-3
Ville / 3-4 / 10-2
FSU / 6-2 / 5-4
Vandy / 3-3 / 4-2
TCU / 6-4 / 1-0
UF / 5-3 / 4-5
tOSU / 4-3 / 2-1
Miami / 6-8 / 1-2
Illi / 4-2 / 3-1
DBU / 3-6 / 4-0
Miz St / 2-2 / 1-1
FAU / 3-3 / 3-0
Ok St / 6-6 / 0-3
ASU / 3-3 / 2-1
Posted on 4/27/15 at 2:02 pm to Farmer1906
what are you bolding?
Also, curious who you see as Nat Seeds.
To me it's the top 4, then
Winner of UF-Vandy
Winner of Ill-OSU
Then 2 of FSU, Miami, TCU or USC depending on who closes strongest
Also, curious who you see as Nat Seeds.
To me it's the top 4, then
Winner of UF-Vandy
Winner of Ill-OSU
Then 2 of FSU, Miami, TCU or USC depending on who closes strongest
Posted on 4/27/15 at 2:03 pm to Farmer1906
No Arky?
Posted on 4/27/15 at 3:04 pm to tmc94
The more impressive records. Not a lot of reaosning behind it.
LSU and A&M are 1 and 2. No doubt in my mind.
UCLA at 3. Again no doubt here.
After that it gets foggy.
I guess UL at 4, but their RPI isn't even in the top 16 at this point. But they're runing away with the ACC.
I want to put TCU, but their SOS is so poor. I'll put them at 5 for now.
Then to finsh it out 3 of the following.
Miami, FSU, 3rd SEC Team (I'm leaning no), a northenr team (Illi most likely) and why not a small schools like DBU or maybe even Missouri St.
I'm really rooting for DBU. I don't know why I like them so much.
LSU and A&M are 1 and 2. No doubt in my mind.
UCLA at 3. Again no doubt here.
After that it gets foggy.
I guess UL at 4, but their RPI isn't even in the top 16 at this point. But they're runing away with the ACC.
I want to put TCU, but their SOS is so poor. I'll put them at 5 for now.
Then to finsh it out 3 of the following.
Miami, FSU, 3rd SEC Team (I'm leaning no), a northenr team (Illi most likely) and why not a small schools like DBU or maybe even Missouri St.
I'm really rooting for DBU. I don't know why I like them so much.
Posted on 4/28/15 at 1:24 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
why not a small schools like DBU or maybe even Missouri St.
was glancing at the Boyds needs report. Missouri St is currently 9 in RPI but under needs to finish top 8: "No way to reach the threshold."
Scheduling is the big problem for these schools. It may not be fair because they may well by top 8, but they have very few best on best matchups vs top teams. Neither school had a weekend matchup vs a top 50 opponent out of conference. You can look at them and say, sure they played some good teams. DBU played us and TCU. Miz St played Arkansas, Missouri, or whatever. But in all those cases they were facing a 4th starter, not a star.
TCU has this problem in conference a bit too but they actually have 6 weekend games OOC vs top 50. And we've seen them square off vs other contenders for national seeds in best on best situations.
Posted on 4/28/15 at 1:34 pm to tmc94
DBU played more then TCU. I know they're mid weeks, but the played @A&M, TCU, @TCU, OU, @OU, OSU, @OSU, BU, & @BU. I know BU sucks this year, but they're suually decent. Those midweeks kind of add up to 3 weekend series vs good teams.
Posted on 4/28/15 at 1:52 pm to Farmer1906
that's sort of my point. They add up on RPI but they never once faced a weekend starter from any of those schools. How can you say they are a top 8 team when they have zero top 25 RPI games except for against development pitchers?
The guys they faced aren't the sort they are going to face in a Regional, much less Super. Let's say they had beaten us. Would you suddenly favor them in a weekend series vs us because they hit Turner Larkins or Brigham Hill around on a Tuesday?
I think it has to be weighted in there when talking about seeding
The guys they faced aren't the sort they are going to face in a Regional, much less Super. Let's say they had beaten us. Would you suddenly favor them in a weekend series vs us because they hit Turner Larkins or Brigham Hill around on a Tuesday?
I think it has to be weighted in there when talking about seeding
Posted on 4/28/15 at 2:35 pm to tmc94
All great points. But I could easily see them finishing 47-12 with 2 conference chamnpionships, an RPI in the top 5, and an SOS in the top 30. That resume stands out.
Posted on 4/28/15 at 3:29 pm to Farmer1906
I know you're sort of rooting for them, but analytically, what you are suggesting is not likely.
47-12 won't put them in the top 5. I think they'd be borderline top 8. They probably can only afford a loss or maybe 2 from here to be top 5. Their schedule is awful down the stretch. They definitely can't afford for today's game vs TCU to rain out (though they probably wouldn't mind if the weekend did)
there's really no chance of that given their remaining schedule. They'll be lucky to stay in top 50 or so. Swagging it right now they'll probably finish about mid-60s
I just don't see them being a realistic consideration for a national seed barring them winning out or something
quote:
RPI in the top 5
47-12 won't put them in the top 5. I think they'd be borderline top 8. They probably can only afford a loss or maybe 2 from here to be top 5. Their schedule is awful down the stretch. They definitely can't afford for today's game vs TCU to rain out (though they probably wouldn't mind if the weekend did)
quote:
SOS in the top 30
there's really no chance of that given their remaining schedule. They'll be lucky to stay in top 50 or so. Swagging it right now they'll probably finish about mid-60s
I just don't see them being a realistic consideration for a national seed barring them winning out or something
Posted on 4/28/15 at 3:39 pm to tmc94
Are you sure?
Posted on 4/28/15 at 4:16 pm to Farmer1906
of what?
Posted on 4/28/15 at 4:35 pm to tmc94
RPI and SOS.
Boyd's World says 8 wins for top 8. I have them finishing with 9 and then winning another 4 in their tourney. They're #2 now and I don't think they'd fall THAT much with TCU and OSU still on the schedule.
Same deal for SOS. They're in the 20s now and still have TCU & OSU to help carry it home.
I don't have calculations to back it up, just feels right.
Boyd's World says 8 wins for top 8. I have them finishing with 9 and then winning another 4 in their tourney. They're #2 now and I don't think they'd fall THAT much with TCU and OSU still on the schedule.
Same deal for SOS. They're in the 20s now and still have TCU & OSU to help carry it home.
I don't have calculations to back it up, just feels right.
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