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Building A 2015 Sourcebook/SEC FAQ BOOK
Posted on 4/27/15 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 4/27/15 at 12:14 pm
I'd like for us to use this thread to start building a bit of sourcebook or FAQ book about ourselves and opponents. It doesn't have to be anything formal - just the kinda stuff that you know you need to remember but either can't fit into a full post OR is just a tidbit. Hopefully, we can all contribute.
So without further adieu, here's my first entry (a breakdown of SEC returning starters):
Returning Starters:
The caveat here is that although returning starters usually mean good things ours are still raw. That said, we've all seen the improvement and while they still have to grow they are further ahead than most who might find themselves in a similar position, imo.
One another note - Vanderbilt beats us out for returning starters but not in returning starts:
Returning Starts:
So without further adieu, here's my first entry (a breakdown of SEC returning starters):
Returning Starters:
The caveat here is that although returning starters usually mean good things ours are still raw. That said, we've all seen the improvement and while they still have to grow they are further ahead than most who might find themselves in a similar position, imo.
One another note - Vanderbilt beats us out for returning starters but not in returning starts:
Returning Starts:
This post was edited on 4/27/15 at 12:33 pm
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Posted on 4/27/15 at 12:40 pm to Prof
Also here's CFBMatrix's methodology for how this is calculatate:
I do returning starters a bit different than other sites. Here are a few rules to the charts posted below.
1. If a player does not make at least 6 starts in a 12-15 game season, he is not a starter. I get my information from the NCAA published game files for every game that lists every player that starts and participates.
2. I include the kickers and punters in returning starters. Why? My trending has shown that a team with both kickers returning, that their average win total year of year is +1 game. Those that lose both kickers it is nearly a full game below last year’s total. When the average top 25 team loses their closest game by less than 4 points, on average, each season, kicking is going to be key in at least one game.
3. It is not perfect. If you see something that is messed up, tweet to me or email me dave@cfbmatrix.com and I will investigate and fix it."
LINK /
I do returning starters a bit different than other sites. Here are a few rules to the charts posted below.
1. If a player does not make at least 6 starts in a 12-15 game season, he is not a starter. I get my information from the NCAA published game files for every game that lists every player that starts and participates.
2. I include the kickers and punters in returning starters. Why? My trending has shown that a team with both kickers returning, that their average win total year of year is +1 game. Those that lose both kickers it is nearly a full game below last year’s total. When the average top 25 team loses their closest game by less than 4 points, on average, each season, kicking is going to be key in at least one game.
3. It is not perfect. If you see something that is messed up, tweet to me or email me dave@cfbmatrix.com and I will investigate and fix it."
LINK /
Posted on 4/27/15 at 12:58 pm to Prof
The numbers look like they are a bit off.
For Vandy...Robinette started the opener for Vandy...as well as their game against UMASS...so I know that they don't have 12 starts returning at QB. I would think they would have 10 returning starts at QB.
For Florida...Driskel started against Eastern Michigan, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU and Missouri. I guess Treon Harris started the rest of their games...that means that they can't have more than 7 starts coming back (not the 12 starts that they have listed at that position).
For Vandy...Robinette started the opener for Vandy...as well as their game against UMASS...so I know that they don't have 12 starts returning at QB. I would think they would have 10 returning starts at QB.
For Florida...Driskel started against Eastern Michigan, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, LSU and Missouri. I guess Treon Harris started the rest of their games...that means that they can't have more than 7 starts coming back (not the 12 starts that they have listed at that position).
Posted on 4/27/15 at 1:25 pm to madmaxvol
For returning starters (first SEC chart) the cut off was 6 games so Treon met that cut.
Treon: "2014: Started the final six games of the season at quarterback and had a 4-2 record, including an upset win over No. 9 Georgia in his first career start…" LINK
So he's listed as a returning starter.
For returning number of starts (Second SEC CHART) Vandy would have 12 although with them it's misleading. BUT someone on their carousel had to start each game. Also, I'm not sure if the number excludes Robinnette due to his retirement. Since just about everyone played so that's gonna effect their numbers in that category.
Treon: "2014: Started the final six games of the season at quarterback and had a 4-2 record, including an upset win over No. 9 Georgia in his first career start…" LINK
So he's listed as a returning starter.
For returning number of starts (Second SEC CHART) Vandy would have 12 although with them it's misleading. BUT someone on their carousel had to start each game. Also, I'm not sure if the number excludes Robinnette due to his retirement. Since just about everyone played so that's gonna effect their numbers in that category.
This post was edited on 4/27/15 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 4/27/15 at 1:31 pm to Prof
Also, the fact that Vandy played so many QBs gives the slightest edge on us for returning starters period (first chart). But I'm not too concerned about that.
Posted on 4/27/15 at 2:27 pm to Prof
Who are you considering starters for? Example, are you going with a TE, 2 RB, and 2 WR?
Posted on 4/27/15 at 2:59 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
delete
This post was edited on 4/27/15 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 4/27/15 at 3:06 pm to Prof
quote:
Who are you considering starters for? Example, are you going with a TE, 2 RB, and 2 WR?
1 TE starter in Ethan Wolf. RSFR. Neiko Creamer should start to shine though when he gets some exp. he has more experience. Kid has ALL the tools. Alexis Ellis ca make place but isn't gonna be a starter. Bransiel and I know he's been hurt just doesn't have it imo -- not yet anyways.
2 RBs - One may start more often than not and that's likely Hurd but they will be coequal and at times they will both be on the field at the same time - for Hurd and Kamara it really doesn't matter who starts tho' in context of the first post and we're not limited to that - Kamara would not be a returning starter. But they really are 1a and 1b.
2. We tend to us 3 WRs at minimum since we don't use an FB. Those will be North, Pig, and Smith (smith is the most questionable due to his injury last season but I think he will get there) for now but a lot will depend on Smith returning from injury and if Malone takes a leap he will earn his role. Same thing with Preston William... if he heals at an amazing rate then he might start (I'd list him as doubtful though. Croom could also start depending on his rehab - hoping he's ready. He will be cleared by fall/summer but I would like to see him back all the way. He's an enormous redzone threat and if he's finally learned to play to his size DBs/CBs wil be in all kinds of trouble.
But those are my best guesess for now for WR.
Posted on 4/27/15 at 5:54 pm to Prof
Sorry, I meant for all teams.
Posted on 4/28/15 at 12:09 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Sorry, I meant for all teams.
Do you mean this year's potential/likely starers? Or returning starters in the broader sense?
TBH, it is fairly early for me in terms of research - other than QB, RB, a handful of stud WRs, and a few standouts on each team (both O and D) I would LOVE for you (and others) to contribute what you know or see as having a very, very, good change of starting for UGA across the board (even if there are some holes) as well as you generated a list for SEC starters. I've just been to busy to really go beyond those groups I mentioned earlier. Although I hope we can all more and my own research helps me out beyond the QB/RB/standouts across D and O we have some really good players in the conference this year.
We only now wrapped up srping sooo anything you can do to help would be much appreciated. Doesn't matter how large or small.
Posted on 4/28/15 at 7:42 am to Prof
Cool man. I'll work on UGA's starts this afternoon.
Defense
Aaron Davis CB (12g/10s)
Devin Bowman CB (12g/8s)
Dominik Sanders S (13g/13s)
Lorenzo Carter OLB (13g/5s) He'll be the best athlete on the field for D this year.
Leonard Floyd OLB (12g/11s)
Jordan Jenkins OLB(13g/13s)
Josh Dawson DE (13g/4s)
Our DL might be the worst unit on the field this year. We'll rely heavily on freshmen which is probably helping us with our DL recruiting this year.
Offense
Nick Chubb RB (12g/8s)
Quayvon Hicks (13g/6s)
John Theus LT (13g/13s)
Brandon Kublanow (13g/13s)
Greg Pyke G (13g/13s)
Kolton Houston RT (13g/13s)
Jeb Blazevich TE (13g/10s)
The RB spot will be a strength for us. The OL will be if the center position is solidified. WR and QB will be hit or miss but if we can get average production with a hint of downfield threats we'll be okay.
Defense
Aaron Davis CB (12g/10s)
Devin Bowman CB (12g/8s)
Dominik Sanders S (13g/13s)
Lorenzo Carter OLB (13g/5s) He'll be the best athlete on the field for D this year.
Leonard Floyd OLB (12g/11s)
Jordan Jenkins OLB(13g/13s)
Josh Dawson DE (13g/4s)
Our DL might be the worst unit on the field this year. We'll rely heavily on freshmen which is probably helping us with our DL recruiting this year.
Offense
Nick Chubb RB (12g/8s)
Quayvon Hicks (13g/6s)
John Theus LT (13g/13s)
Brandon Kublanow (13g/13s)
Greg Pyke G (13g/13s)
Kolton Houston RT (13g/13s)
Jeb Blazevich TE (13g/10s)
The RB spot will be a strength for us. The OL will be if the center position is solidified. WR and QB will be hit or miss but if we can get average production with a hint of downfield threats we'll be okay.
This post was edited on 4/28/15 at 1:46 pm
Posted on 4/28/15 at 10:45 am to Prof
I'm surprised to see how few Oklahoma has returning from last years squad. We need to capitalize on that in a big way this year.
Posted on 4/28/15 at 11:33 am to TRUERockyTop
Would be a huge win for us for sure
Posted on 4/28/15 at 11:57 am to Prof
quote:
For returning starters (first SEC chart) the cut off was 6 games so Treon met that cut.
I wasn't talking about the "returning starters" stat. I was solely talking about "returning starts".
For Vandy, Robinette started the games I listed (which were limited due to injury). Harris only had 6 starts...so Florida should have 6 returning starts at QB instead of 12.
At least with my line of thinking, this was reflecting the number of games started by at least one of the QBs on the '15 roster. Maybe I am just confused by the definition and am off base with my rationale.
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