Started By
Message
Why do teams run the ball so much?
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:17 am
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:17 am
I've long been suspicious of excessive risk aversion in team's run/pass ratios. I recently looked looked at a ranking of everybody's yards per rush and pass in 2015, and became more suspicious than ever.
The median ratio ratio in CFB in 2015 was 53% rush/ 47% pass. So they run over half the time. Here are the stats on yards per carry and yards per pass for all 130 FBS teams. Source:teamrankings.com
Michigan was the best pass defense in 2015, allowing 5.4 yards per attempt. The 115-118th best rushing defenses allowed the same yards per rush.
The best rushing offense in 2015 was Ga Southern, which got 6.4 yards per rush. The 98-101st best passing offenses got the same yards per pass.
Derrick Henry got the Heisman by attaining 5.9 yards per rush. All but 11 of the country's passing offenses had a higher yard per pass attempt than this.
The median pass offense in FBS got 7.2 yards per pass. The median rush offense got 4.4 yards per rush.
Yards per pass is certainly scewed by large gains, but I think yards per rush is probably a lot more scewed by long runs than people realize. It wouldn't surprise me if Derrick Henry actually only averaged 4 or 4.5 YPC on the bottom 90% of his carries and scewed his stats by averaging 20 or 25 YPC on the top 10% of his carries. I think you should usually run on third and short. I'm sure there is value to keeping a defense off balance on 1st and 2nd down as well. But does this really justify running 53% of the time. Maybe it justifies running on 20% of 1st and 2nd downs and 75% of third and shorts.
The median ratio ratio in CFB in 2015 was 53% rush/ 47% pass. So they run over half the time. Here are the stats on yards per carry and yards per pass for all 130 FBS teams. Source:teamrankings.com
Michigan was the best pass defense in 2015, allowing 5.4 yards per attempt. The 115-118th best rushing defenses allowed the same yards per rush.
The best rushing offense in 2015 was Ga Southern, which got 6.4 yards per rush. The 98-101st best passing offenses got the same yards per pass.
Derrick Henry got the Heisman by attaining 5.9 yards per rush. All but 11 of the country's passing offenses had a higher yard per pass attempt than this.
The median pass offense in FBS got 7.2 yards per pass. The median rush offense got 4.4 yards per rush.
Yards per pass is certainly scewed by large gains, but I think yards per rush is probably a lot more scewed by long runs than people realize. It wouldn't surprise me if Derrick Henry actually only averaged 4 or 4.5 YPC on the bottom 90% of his carries and scewed his stats by averaging 20 or 25 YPC on the top 10% of his carries. I think you should usually run on third and short. I'm sure there is value to keeping a defense off balance on 1st and 2nd down as well. But does this really justify running 53% of the time. Maybe it justifies running on 20% of 1st and 2nd downs and 75% of third and shorts.
This post was edited on 2/25/16 at 11:44 am
17
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:19 am to Category5hurricane
quote:
Why do teams run the ball so much?
To keep their D off the field and shorten the game.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:19 am to Category5hurricane
When you pass three things can happen and two are bad.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:20 am to Category5hurricane
Let me go put on a pot of coffee so i can read this shite
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:21 am to Wtodd
Arkansas' passsing game only works so well due to the threat of the run.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:22 am to Category5hurricane
You'd probably get your best answer from Nick Saban. 
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:22 am to Category5hurricane
Why do you run the ball?
-To wear down the opposing defense
-To run clock
-To exert your will on an opponent physically
-To wear down the opposing defense
-To run clock
-To exert your will on an opponent physically
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:24 am to Porcine Human
quote:
Arkansas' passsing game only works so well due to the threat of the run.
This and you have to keep the defense honest otherwise you would have 5 in the box on most plays
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:25 am to Category5hurricane
OP:
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:30 am to Category5hurricane
Because it's faster than walking?
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:33 am to Knight of Old
quote:...and it's harder for the defense to catch up to the ball carrier to tackle him..I think we're on to something here.
Because it's faster than walking?
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:37 am to Knight of Old
quote:
Because it's faster than walking?
We have a winner.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:41 am to Category5hurricane
Because it's not about average yards per play. It's about getting 10 yards over 3 plays, over and over again.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:46 am to Crowknowsbest
But is any offense really going to be able get 3-4 yards every play for an 80 yard TD drive? I think that's a big fallacy people have in their heads. Even the best offenses will have bad plays where they don't get very many yards.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:48 am to Category5hurricane
quote:
Why do teams run the ball so much?
Teams that run the ball well and stop the run well win titles. There are almost no exceptions. Some teams use qbs or receivers to run it, but that makes no difference.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:49 am to Category5hurricane
What are the stats on turnovers/rush vs turnover/pass. It's less risky. It also is about TOP. If I can tire out your defense and have my defense fresh and flying around the field on every possession, I'm going to win.
Also, your comparisons for why you think "keeping the defense off balance" is stupid, are horrible. They make no sense. Running the ball is a big part of a normal offense. If the defense knows if the play is a run or a pass it changes the way everyone plays. If you keep everyone off balance, you can open up a ton of opportunities for big plays.
Also, your comparisons for why you think "keeping the defense off balance" is stupid, are horrible. They make no sense. Running the ball is a big part of a normal offense. If the defense knows if the play is a run or a pass it changes the way everyone plays. If you keep everyone off balance, you can open up a ton of opportunities for big plays.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:50 am to UAtide11
quote:Enough said. /thread
Teams that run the ball well and stop the run well win titles.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:51 am to Category5hurricane
quote:
But is any offense really going to be able get 3-4 yards every play for an 80 yard TD drive? I think that's a big fallacy people have in their heads. Even the best offenses will have bad plays where they don't get very many yards.
No, which is why they pass it about half the time.
The balance is what enables both to work.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:51 am to Category5hurricane
quote:
But is any offense really going to be able get 3-4 yards every play for an 80 yard TD drive?
You don't have to get 3-4 on every play. You have to average 3-4yds/play every set of downs. There is a HUGE difference between the two.
quote:
Even the best offenses will have bad plays where they don't get very many yards.
Very true, completely irrelevant considering the above, but true all the same
Posted on 2/25/16 at 11:51 am to Category5hurricane
There's a difference between running the ball, and running the ball every play... Nobody runs it every play.... Well except LSU
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News