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Posted on 4/25/17 at 3:03 pm to rockiee
quote:
Since you are really good at these things. I would actually be curious to compare that to their years without Mullen.
Prior to Mullen, Mississippi State was 27-176-5 all-time against opponents that finished in the AP Top 25 (14.2%)
Mullen is 2-32 (5.8%).
Mullen is worse off in this statistic which is pretty incredible considering Mississippi State has pretty much always been bad.
I think Scott Stricklin is actually responsible for the Mullen hype. He made sure to assemble the absolutely easiest schedules possible for a program like State, year after year. They get Kentucky every single year. They play 4 OOC cupcakes. Just right there they are guaranteed 5 wins. All they have to do is win one more and they get to a bowl. Thus the legend of Dan Mullen is born.
Posted on 4/25/17 at 3:06 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Prior to Mullen, Mississippi State was 27-176-5 all-time against opponents that finished in the AP Top 25 (14.2%)
Mullen is 2-32 (5.8%).
I asked about the big 6, I realize that his top 25 record is horrible
Posted on 4/25/17 at 3:13 pm to rockiee
quote:
I asked about the big 6, I realize that his top 25 record is horrible
My bad.
Prior to Mullen, State was 91-219-7 all-time against the Big 6 in SEC play (1933-2008). That's a winning percentage of 29.8%.
Mullen is 7-22 against those opponents, for a winning percentage of 24.1%
Again, Mullen is performing below average compared to all of his horrible predecessors against Big 6 opponents.
Posted on 4/25/17 at 3:21 pm to rockiee
quote:
Since you are really good at these things. I would actually be curious to compare that to their years without Mullen.
Jackie's overall records would probably compare favorably, but the SEC West was nowhere near as good then as it is now and Jackie was cheatin' his arse off.
Sly went 10-30 vs SEC
Jackie went 43-59-1 vs SEC
Felcker went 5-28
Posted on 4/25/17 at 3:25 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Again, Mullen is performing below average compared to all of his horrible predecessors against Big 6 opponents.
Except, the difference is, Mullen is consistently beating below average teams.
Mullen has never won less than 2 SEC games. He has won 3 or more SEC games 7 of his 8 seasons. He has gone .500 or better in the SEC half of his seasons.
Croom only won more than 2 SEC games 1 time out of 5 seasons.
Jackie and Mullen had pretty similar marks until State collapsed Jackie's last 3 years. From 1992 to 2000 State won 3 or more SEC games 8 of 9 seasons and went .500 or better 6 of 9 seasons.
Felker never won more than 33% of his conference games.
So, Mullen beats his 4 Sun Belt teams + beats Kentucky (7-1 vs UK) and then beats 2 of A&M/Ole Miss/Arkansas/Auburn (2-3 vs A&M, 3-5 vs AU, 4-4 vs ARK, 5-3 vs OM).
So, Mullen is 21-16 vs Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Ole Miss in his tenure.
He's 1-15 vs Alabama and LSU.
This post was edited on 4/25/17 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 4/25/17 at 3:53 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Again, Mullen is performing below average compared to all of his horrible predecessors against Big 6 opponents.
Thanks
That is very interesting
Posted on 4/25/17 at 3:59 pm to rockiee
Mullen has been at State forever and State is never terrible. Add in the (correct) assumption that State is the 2nd hardest place in the conference to win at behind Vanderbilt, and Mullen's coaching reputation takes off.
However, it should not be ignored that consistently beating bad teams and basically having a .500 or better record against everyone in the SEC West besides Alabama and LSU is an accomplishment at State. The only person who won games consistently like that was Sherrill, and he was cheating his arse off.
Mullen is an average to below average recruiter, an above average talent developer and an above average program manager. They "usually" don't lose games they shouldn't (they do sometimes, but not regularly) and they win their fair share of games against teams generally around them in the standings. However, they never beat really good teams. Ever. And that is an indictment.
You got to beat some good teams in a decade if you are going to be thought of as a Top 2-3 coach in this conference.
However, it should not be ignored that consistently beating bad teams and basically having a .500 or better record against everyone in the SEC West besides Alabama and LSU is an accomplishment at State. The only person who won games consistently like that was Sherrill, and he was cheating his arse off.
Mullen is an average to below average recruiter, an above average talent developer and an above average program manager. They "usually" don't lose games they shouldn't (they do sometimes, but not regularly) and they win their fair share of games against teams generally around them in the standings. However, they never beat really good teams. Ever. And that is an indictment.
You got to beat some good teams in a decade if you are going to be thought of as a Top 2-3 coach in this conference.
This post was edited on 4/25/17 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:03 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Mullen is 7-22 against those opponents, for a winning percentage of 24.1%
He is 1-15 vs Alabama and LSU
He is 6-7 vs Auburn, Georgia, Florida and Tennessee
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Ya, I would still have Mullen in at 3 or 4. I just think it is something that people should look at that believe it is clearly Mullen at 2. It all goes back to the fact that has been stated many times before, the coaching in this league is down besides Saban.
The other problem is that there are some young coaches that are just too hard to judge at the movement. Kirby has been spectacular when it comes to recruiting but average his first year in terms of success. Too early to read him. McElwain is almost the opposite. Great two years results wise in terms of winning the East but his recruiting has many worried. The narrative on these guys can change fast after next season.
A bunch of meh when looking at the more established coaches.
The other problem is that there are some young coaches that are just too hard to judge at the movement. Kirby has been spectacular when it comes to recruiting but average his first year in terms of success. Too early to read him. McElwain is almost the opposite. Great two years results wise in terms of winning the East but his recruiting has many worried. The narrative on these guys can change fast after next season.
A bunch of meh when looking at the more established coaches.
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:10 pm to rockiee
quote:
I just think it is something that people should look at that believe it is clearly Mullen at 2. It all goes back to the fact that has been stated many times before, the coaching in this league is down besides Saban.
Yea, like I said above, I think the fact that he has been there for a decade and they always seem to be at least competitive along with the assumption that State should always be 4-8 makes people think he's winning at a place that nobody can win at. When you do a deep dive you realize they are more talented than 5 teams every year and as talented as 2-3 others. So, it's not like he's winning 8-9 games every year at Vanderbilt.
But, he is doing a good job there and he's a solid coach. But I definitely wouldn't automatically put him #2. He's in the Top 4-5 probably, depending on what you value more and where you project him if he was at a bigger school.
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:17 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
depending on what you value more and where you project him if he was at a bigger school.
Comparing coaches against each other in a vacuum has to be one of the most annoying things I read on here. I don't understand how people can do it and believe it has merits.
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:18 pm to rockiee
quote:
I don't understand how people can do it and believe it has merits.
Because most people here look like this?
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Bert's illegitimate son
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:20 pm to rockiee
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:32 pm to MizzouTrue
The pressure for him to perform this year is as high as it's ever been, but the fact that there is even a discussion about Dan Mullen being #2 above Malzahn is ridiculous.
The man was basically one play away from winning a national title. Going into year 9, Mullin's best season is the only year he's finished above 4th in the division. If he was as good as some of you make him out to be, he wouldn't still be at Mississippi State.
I mean, Butch Jones has a better record...
The man was basically one play away from winning a national title. Going into year 9, Mullin's best season is the only year he's finished above 4th in the division. If he was as good as some of you make him out to be, he wouldn't still be at Mississippi State.
I mean, Butch Jones has a better record...
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
However, it should not be ignored that consistently beating bad teams and basically having a .500 or better record against everyone in the SEC West besides Alabama and LSU is an accomplishment at State.
Maybe so. But that means he's a decent coach for Mississippi State standards. That doesn't translate over to considering him for the 2nd best coach in the league.
This is basically how Mullen has performed against the SEC West:
Against opponents that end up with a 70% winning percentage: Mullen is 0-19
Against opponents that end up with a winning percentage between 50% and 70%: Mullen is 9-11
Against opponents that end up with a losing record (below 50%): Mullen is 6-0
Mullen gets a ton of credit for beating some really bad teams:
He beat 2011 Ole Miss (2-10)
He beat 2012 Auburn (3-9)
He beat 2013 Arkansas (3-9)
He beat 2010 Ole Miss (4-8)
He beat 2012 Arkansas (4-8)
These 5 teams are arguably 5 of the worst teams the SEC has produced during the last decade... including the worst Eastern teams.
Five of Mullen's 15 SEC West victories came against these horrific opponents.
As for the other 10, one still had a losing record (2016 Ole Miss at 5-7). Two others were barely .500 at 7-6. Every other opponent but one finished 8-5.
The only SEC West victory Mullen had against a team that finished with fewer than 5 losses was in his first year. That was against 9-4 Ole Miss.
I get that these facts are ultimately backing up what you are saying... that Mullen wins all the games he is supposed to. That's all well and good. But racking up wins over 4-8 type opponents does not qualify one to be considered the #2 coach in a league like the SEC. There is no value to those statistics.
In big games, Mullen is atrocious. In 19 games against SEC West teams that finish with 3 losses or less, Mullen is 0-19. He's lost 10 of those 19 games by 20 points or more. And on average, he's lost all 19 of those games by nearly 19 points per contest.
That's not good. At all.
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:44 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
I get that these facts are ultimately backing up what you are saying... that Mullen wins all the games he is supposed to. That's all well and good. But racking up wins over 4-8 type opponents does not qualify one to be considered the #2 coach in a league like the SEC.
Yep - totally agree
Posted on 4/25/17 at 4:58 pm to SummerOfGeorge
One interesting way to measure coaches would be to rank how they compare to their program averages (1950 and forward) prior to their arrival in several key statistics such as these:
*SEC Winning %
*Record vs. Top 25 opponents
*Record vs. Big 6 opponents
If a coach is out-performing all of his predecessors then he's probably a great coach.
Mullen is not necessarily out-performing his predecessors in most of these stats. He's actually coming in below the MSU program averages. I would imagine many current coaches in the SEC are performing below program expectations right now.
*SEC Winning %
*Record vs. Top 25 opponents
*Record vs. Big 6 opponents
If a coach is out-performing all of his predecessors then he's probably a great coach.
Mullen is not necessarily out-performing his predecessors in most of these stats. He's actually coming in below the MSU program averages. I would imagine many current coaches in the SEC are performing below program expectations right now.
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