re: Which coaches are getting fired at the end of the year?

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ArHog

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What did I say that you disagree with? If the Hogs play badly this year he will start getting some criticism among the fan base.

When he got here he had the John L. Smith mess to clean up, but this is his team now.

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Saban. 2011 season is forfeited due to antler spray so Saban leaves for Texas.

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Sorry. Five year window is closing.

Probability they are back next year as HC:

JUST STARTING OUT
99%- Smart
99%- Muschamp
99%- Odom

VERY EARLY STILL, or ALREADY EXCEEDING PROGRAM NORMS
95%- Mullen
95%- McElwain
90%- Mason

FANS LOVE THEM DESPITE MEDIOCRITY
85%- Jones
85%- Bielema

COULD RETIRE
80%- Saban

SUCCESSFUL COACHES AT SCHOOLS THAT DEMAND PERFECTION
65%- Miles
50%- Malzahn

NCAA WILL LIKELY DECIDE THINGS
40%- Freeze

ITS YEAR 5 AND ITS TIME TO DO MORE
25%- Sumlin
15%- Stoops


What would it take for each of the above coaches to get fired short of some ethical issue?

Saban, Freeze (unless its for ethics), Mullen, all 3 of the new coaches, plus Mason and McElwain would never get fired after this season. They've either had too much success or its far too early for a dismissal. So that's 8 of the 14 who have zero shot of being fired after this year unless its for an off-the-field issue.

So that leaves the following:

Butch Jones- I think a 5-7 season would probably get him canned.... and considering how easy the schedule is, that would be tough to pull off. Essentially it would take Butch losing to Virginia Tech, Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri, and likely South Carolina. That would only leave him wins over App. State, Ohio, Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Considering this is their year in terms of experience coming back... if Butch can't win 8 games this year, he probably never will. But 5-7 would get him canned.

Bret Bielema- I almost included him above with the group that would never be fired. He has 20 losses in 3 seasons and Hog fans still love him for some reason. However, I think even Arkansas fans eventually have a limit to their patience. I think he'd have to go 3-9 to get fired. That would essentially mean losing to the entire SEC West, Florida, Missouri, and TCU. That would leave Arkansas with wins over La Tech, Texas State, and Alcorn State. Surely even Arkansas fans would finally start to think they're headed in the wrong direction if that happened.

Mark Stoops- The only reason he may get another year is if Kentucky fans and their administration finally just throw in the towel and accept the fact that they aren't going to have major success in football. It was thought that Stoops was a slam dunk hire for UK... yet even he has failed to pan out. Who else are the going to get? Regardless, I think 4-8 probably gets him fired. If he can get to 5 wins, they may let him stick around. Five wins would essentially require them to beat both Vandy and South Carolina. While 5-7 wouldn't be very palatable, they'd still likely finish 5th in the West which would be an improvement.

Kevin Sumlin- I think 5-7 likely gets him canned. Having to play 6 SEC West teams, plus Tennessee and UCLA is very difficult. If A&M can get to 6 wins, that would require them winning two of those aforementioned games along with South Carolina. While 6-6 would not be great, with that schedule its honestly not horrible as long as A&M is competitive. If they were blown out in those 6 losses, he may get fired at 6-6. But as long as they are generally competitive, I think Sumlin survives at 6-6 but gets fired if they miss a bowl game.

Gus Malzahn- Here's the thing... Gus' fate has as much to do with what Alabama does this season as it does with what his team does on the field. In the state of Alabama, its all about the power struggle of the Iron Bowl rivalry. No one is expecting Gus to beat Bama this year (especially with the game in Ttown). But Alabama can't increase their hold on power within the state. So if Gus goes 7-5 and Alabama wins an SEC Championship... I think Gus gets fired. But if Gus goes 7-5, but Bama goes 10-2 or worse and doesn't make it to Atlanta, then as long as Auburn was relatively competitive in most of its losses, Gus will keep his job. He has to face #1 Alabama, #2 Clemson, and #5 LSU this season... among others. I think most Auburn fans would be ecstatic with 8-4 this year as long as their team was competitive in those 4 losses. But 7 wins is getting tiresome as long as Alabama is winning championships. Six losses guarantees an exit for him, IMO.

Les Miles- Similar to Gus, a lot depends on that Alabama game. Les could go 9-3, but if he beat Saban in Baton Rouge, I think he's safe. If LSU goes 8-4 or worse, he's gone no matter what. I think he can absorb another loss to Bama as long as he wins 10 games in the regular season.

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Bert will likely start to catch heat if he doesn't post 8 regular season wins. He'll be where Butch was at the start of this year.

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ArHog says you aren't allowed to say that.

OK, same hypothet, except he finishes 3-9 with the victory over Bama. He stay?

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Hypthet: Let's say Auburn finishes the regular season 6-6 but beats Alabama in the finale (assume Bama has at least 9 wins going into that game). Does Malzahn get the ax?

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He stays if he beats Bama, IMO.

If Auburn was 6-6 and heading to just a regular bowl...
while Bama was 9-3 and also heading to just a regular bowl... but Auburn had an Iron Bowl victory, I think Auburn fans would look at the season and feel that despite just 6 wins that they had gained back some of the power in the rivalry. So I think he'd be safe.... yet still on the hot seat going into the next year.

6-6 gets him canned though unless he somehow beats Bama.

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I don't think Gus would get the ax if we went 6-6 losing to alabama. It would take a 3-9 type year I believe for JJ to fire him.

As many have said numerous times, I think he gets through next year.

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Do you really think he'd survive a 5-7 season and missing out on any post season? Surely not.

I think 6-6 would likely get him fired too. You have to realize that while Auburn's schedule is very difficult, there are still some very winnable games:

Arkansas State
La-Monroe
Vanderbilt
Alabama A&M

That's 4 built-in wins just right there. If Gus goes 6-6, that means he won those 4 and likely Arkansas and MSU.

Losing to Clemson, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama would get him fired in my opinion. But you probably know better than me.

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They weren't comparable.

Tennessee was in a much stronger position, in a far weaker division. It wasn't simply even a matter of the end of the Petrino Era, or the JL Smith era-- it was the hollowing out of the program under Petrino-- the outer facade was all that had a good finish. Everything inside was rotten.

Itsalso one thing to have to make your head way against South Carolina/Quarterbackless Florida/Georgia In Turmoil, and another thing to have to make it against Alabama/LSU-- one is going to be held to a different standard in the later case, as well.

Bert will likely start to catch heat if he doesn't post 8 regular season wins. He'll be where Butch was at the start of this year.

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ok, well Bert also has fewer wins over the past 3 seasons, unless you think Bert should be credited with more leeway in comparison to Butch. And two of Bert's losses are getting beat by Toledo and blown out by TTU, as well as all of his SEC games his first year and six of them his second

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If LSU goes 8-4 out goes Les and in comes Herman.

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FIFY

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ok, well Bert also has fewer wins over the past 3 seasons

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Tough to compare the win totals. The first year he had absolutely nothing to work with in a far tougher division.