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re: Time Of Possession Is The Most Overrated Statistic In Football
Posted on 7/28/15 at 4:14 pm to RT1941
Posted on 7/28/15 at 4:14 pm to RT1941
The most devastating non-scoring play in football is when an offense drives the ball down the field and then turns the ball over in the red zone.
That is a major momentum swing and is like throwing bloody meat to a pack of wolves..
The black and white numbers prove that TOP is very weakly correlated with winning ball games.
That is a major momentum swing and is like throwing bloody meat to a pack of wolves..
The black and white numbers prove that TOP is very weakly correlated with winning ball games.
0
Posted on 7/28/15 at 4:20 pm to RB10
Someone posted actual data statistics which prove a point that offends you. Why don't you take your ball and go home.
Posted on 7/28/15 at 5:06 pm to FishFearMe
Both teams get the same number of offensive possessions (not including turnovers of course), so it doesn't matter that much. It just shortens the game, for both teams.
But I think it matters more in college where your offense is more likely to be matched up against teams without much depth on defense. That won't happen in the NFL.
But I think it matters more in college where your offense is more likely to be matched up against teams without much depth on defense. That won't happen in the NFL.
This post was edited on 7/28/15 at 5:07 pm
Posted on 7/28/15 at 5:21 pm to digitalis
I wouldn't say it's all that overrated. A long sustained drive may or may not wear out the opposing defense, it all depends on their own physical conditioning and their psychological state of mind.
BUT what a long sustained drive DOES do is it gives your defense time to rest.
On the flips side if the offense is scoring in rapid succession that to can be a psychological mind frick. "Damn it how do we stop these guys?" Also if your offense is scoring almost every time they touch the ball it can be a huge boost mentally for your defense as the pressure is not solely on them.
In the end the be all end all stats are points scored and points allowed. TOP is just a means to that end. Not bad, not good, just a way to get there.
BUT what a long sustained drive DOES do is it gives your defense time to rest.
On the flips side if the offense is scoring in rapid succession that to can be a psychological mind frick. "Damn it how do we stop these guys?" Also if your offense is scoring almost every time they touch the ball it can be a huge boost mentally for your defense as the pressure is not solely on them.
In the end the be all end all stats are points scored and points allowed. TOP is just a means to that end. Not bad, not good, just a way to get there.
Posted on 7/28/15 at 5:24 pm to FishFearMe
quote:
Since 2009 for NFL teams the rsquared for correlation between wins per season and time of possession per drive is 0.325 which is a shite correlation.
no shite. will, i'll be damned.
all I know is that the run and shoot type offenses that amass huge chunks of yardage in very short time frames don't win championships. we all just assumed it was because their defenses were on the field damn near the whole game but maybe the world was wrong. maybe they were just crappy defenses.
Posted on 7/28/15 at 5:25 pm to FishFearMe
Actually this is probably the best post made on the rant this week. Maybe best of the month.
Course I understand most rantards arent capable of reading the article because it is too long, and or aren't really able to understand it.
Good stuff op.
Course I understand most rantards arent capable of reading the article because it is too long, and or aren't really able to understand it.
Good stuff op.
Posted on 7/28/15 at 5:28 pm to FishFearMe
Pull up every LSU-A&M game since 2010 and tell me who won time of possession
Posted on 7/28/15 at 6:08 pm to FishFearMe
quote:
turnover ratio
the r^2 for this sucks arse, fwiw
Posted on 7/28/15 at 8:02 pm to bmy
The correlation between winning the turnover margin and winning the ball game is 0.73 which is a strong correlation.
Although this is NFL, don't you ever hear Sean Payton talking about how critical turnovers are?
Although this is NFL, don't you ever hear Sean Payton talking about how critical turnovers are?
Posted on 7/28/15 at 9:43 pm to FishFearMe
quote:
You will lose 99% of your SEC games if you only score 7 points. Doesn't matter if Smart, Muschamp, Chavis, or Steele is the DC.
Remember my post said you need to score also.
You'll win 100% of your SEC games if you score more then your opponent.
Seriously, a few years ago, someone did some research showing that SEC teams would usually win if they scored 24 ppg or more, but would lose if they scored less. Defenses were better back then and offensives are now scoring more points, so I suspect that no longer holds true.
Posted on 7/29/15 at 4:49 pm to FishFearMe
quote:
The correlation between winning the turnover margin and winning the ball game is 0.73 which is a strong correlation.
Look at season averages of top teams. It's unfortunately not that big of a deal.
Posted on 7/29/15 at 5:08 pm to MightyYat
quote:quote:
LSU vs Auburn 2014
3rd Down Eff - 0/13
But it was Chavis!
Auburn's first 4 possession went FG, TD, TD, TD.
LSU's first 4 possession:
3-n-out
TD
3-n-out
3-n-out
How did I get sucked into another thread
Posted on 7/29/15 at 7:26 pm to FishFearMe
quote:
This is to debunk the many posts stating that winning TOP is critical for winning games.
It is critical in top tier games so that explains why you don't understand it...
Posted on 7/29/15 at 7:46 pm to GetmorewithLes
What's your bowl record over the last 4 bowls?
When was the last time you beat Bama?
When was the last time you beat Bama?
Posted on 7/29/15 at 7:49 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
When was the last time you beat Bama?
When was the last time ya'll beat LSU?
Posted on 7/29/15 at 7:51 pm to SDVTiger
You hate you some aggy.
I like you
I like you
Posted on 7/29/15 at 7:57 pm to TbirdSpur2010
Only 2 stats that matter...write this down. Scoring defense and turnover ratio. Use these to win more than you lose on Saturdays. That is all.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 1:21 am to SDVTiger
Posted on 7/30/15 at 6:14 am to FishFearMe
Good god your an idiot.....
Posted on 7/30/15 at 6:26 am to FishFearMe
God I hope we put up 60 on TAMU or win the game on a last minute drive while they're playing prevent. Either of those would really just make that game perfect.
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