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The effect of LSU/Bama rushing offense against opposing rush defense stats
Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:35 pm
Obviously playing the #4 (LSU) and #42 (Bama) rushing offense in the country will have an effect on a teams seasonal averages, so let's take a look:
As you can see, in every game LSU has rushed for more yards and yards per attempt than what their opponents were allowing if you remove LSU from their stats. In fact, LSU averages 136 more yards per game and 2.3 more yards per attempt per game than their opponents are allowing.
Alabama has done well too, but twice this season they've rushed for under their opponent's average yards allowed, and 3 times they've rushed for fewer yards per attempt that their opponent's average. For the season, they're averaging 42.2 more yards per game and .8 more yards per attempt that their opponents average.
Too look at it another way, LSU is averaging 309.1 yds/game and 6.7 YPA on the season, and they've done so against opponents who average giving up 155.4 yds/game and 4.4 YPA when you exclude LSU.
Meanwhile, Alabama is averaging 188.5 yds/game and 4.5 YPA against defenses that have averaged giving up 126.5 yds/game and 3.9 YPA if you exclude Alabama.
ETA: In the first two paragraphs, the averages are taken using the average improvement of each game. The second two paragraphs are looking at the delta of the seasonal averages.
As you can see, in every game LSU has rushed for more yards and yards per attempt than what their opponents were allowing if you remove LSU from their stats. In fact, LSU averages 136 more yards per game and 2.3 more yards per attempt per game than their opponents are allowing.
Alabama has done well too, but twice this season they've rushed for under their opponent's average yards allowed, and 3 times they've rushed for fewer yards per attempt that their opponent's average. For the season, they're averaging 42.2 more yards per game and .8 more yards per attempt that their opponents average.
Too look at it another way, LSU is averaging 309.1 yds/game and 6.7 YPA on the season, and they've done so against opponents who average giving up 155.4 yds/game and 4.4 YPA when you exclude LSU.
Meanwhile, Alabama is averaging 188.5 yds/game and 4.5 YPA against defenses that have averaged giving up 126.5 yds/game and 3.9 YPA if you exclude Alabama.
ETA: In the first two paragraphs, the averages are taken using the average improvement of each game. The second two paragraphs are looking at the delta of the seasonal averages.
This post was edited on 10/27/15 at 2:40 pm
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Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:38 pm to slackster
I can understand the lackluster rushing though forreal. We have only 1 legit running back and our scheme does not highlight the RB whatsoever.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:38 pm to slackster
I agree - those are indeed a shitload of numbers.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:38 pm to slackster
Finally, somebody who realizes that LSU's rushing totals have skewed the opponents defensive stats. These defenses have ranged from decent to very good against the run except against the Tigers.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:39 pm to slackster
quote:
LSU is averaging 309.1 yds/game and 6.7 YPA on the season
Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:40 pm to slackster
I don't have any doubt that LSU's rushing offense is better than Alabama's this year.
I cannot wait to see how Alabama's rushing defense fares against LSU's attack.
I cannot wait to see how Alabama's rushing defense fares against LSU's attack.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:46 pm to FourThreeForty
quote:
I can understand the lackluster rushing though forreal. We have only 1 legit running back and our scheme does not highlight the RB whatsoever.
That may explain some of it.
I also didn't remove sacks and sack yardage lost which are figured into rushing totals in CFB, because doing so is difficult for every game and team.
However, if you simply remove them from LSU and Alabama's seasonal numbers, LSU improves to 318.7 YPG and 7.0 YPA, while Alabama goes to 200.4 YPG and 5.0 YPA.
The only game where that had a major impact for Alabama was the Tennessee game, where Coker had -24 yards and dragged down the entire team. That being said, sacks are part of the game, so I don't think it is necessary to exclude them.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:47 pm to elposter
quote:
I cannot wait to see how Alabama's rushing defense fares against LSU's attack.
Something will have to give:
LSU 309.1 and 6.7 YPA vs Bama's 78.5 YPG allowed and 2.6 YPA allowed.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 2:49 pm to slackster
We are putting up rushing yards with fricking Triple Option schools. It's damn fine.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:05 pm to slackster
I've produced basically the same tables. Including passing results as well as looking at the run and pass offenses both teams have played against. It just gives a better picture. Only thing I've ignored is special teams. I just don't want to look at that. 
LSU has trended in the last few games towards a more balanced attack. This is a very good thing for them. They have simply overpowered and worn down other teams prior to this. Sound familiar? Everyone is so focused on the run game and LF7. He will get his yards, but he doesn't play on defense(so far).
LF7 went 21 for 79 yards last year, 183 yards total for the team, 40 rushing and 76 passing for Jennings. Only TD for LSU came through the air. The O-line is as good as last year or better as is LF7. Bama's D line is as good as or better with quality depth.
So what does it mean, Basil? LSU must continue to be balanced. Bama must try to take advantage of LSU's secondary and provide Coker and Henry time to make plays. Simply put, both teams must force the opposing QB to win the game. I'm willing to bet LF7 will get a few thrown to him as well as some Les Miles trickeration.
Bonus:
The Tennessee game showed a few things.
1. Bama is known for struggling with mobile QBs. This has been more of a matter of allowing the QB to extend the play until receivers get open. Johnny QB won the Heisman doing this to Bama. That's not happening so far.
2. The lateral rush, particularly with the QB is something of a weakness that can be exploited against Bama's D. Running into the middle will be far less successful. I expect LSU will try it quite a bit as well as some play action off of it to some success.
LSU has trended in the last few games towards a more balanced attack. This is a very good thing for them. They have simply overpowered and worn down other teams prior to this. Sound familiar? Everyone is so focused on the run game and LF7. He will get his yards, but he doesn't play on defense(so far).
LF7 went 21 for 79 yards last year, 183 yards total for the team, 40 rushing and 76 passing for Jennings. Only TD for LSU came through the air. The O-line is as good as last year or better as is LF7. Bama's D line is as good as or better with quality depth.
So what does it mean, Basil? LSU must continue to be balanced. Bama must try to take advantage of LSU's secondary and provide Coker and Henry time to make plays. Simply put, both teams must force the opposing QB to win the game. I'm willing to bet LF7 will get a few thrown to him as well as some Les Miles trickeration.
Bonus:
The Tennessee game showed a few things.
1. Bama is known for struggling with mobile QBs. This has been more of a matter of allowing the QB to extend the play until receivers get open. Johnny QB won the Heisman doing this to Bama. That's not happening so far.
2. The lateral rush, particularly with the QB is something of a weakness that can be exploited against Bama's D. Running into the middle will be far less successful. I expect LSU will try it quite a bit as well as some play action off of it to some success.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:06 pm to slackster
quote:
Something will have to give:
LSU 309.1 and 6.7 YPA vs Bama's 78.5 YPG allowed and 2.6 YPA allowed.
If you average the numbers out that gives LSU 194 yds and 4.65 YPA. That wouldn't be bad at all. Especially considering I fully expect Bama to try and make Harris beat them over the top.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:08 pm to FourThreeForty
quote:
I can understand the lackluster rushing though forreal. We have only 1 legit running back and our scheme does not highlight the RB whatsoever.
Run the Damn Ball, Lane
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:11 pm to JuiceTerry
You sound like an Aggy. Congrats 
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:15 pm to slackster
Nothing changes the simple fact that Auburn is best rush defense LSU has faced all year.
Not even Muschamp believes Auburn has a good rush defense.
November is going to be a very painful month for LSU Rantards.
Not even Muschamp believes Auburn has a good rush defense.
November is going to be a very painful month for LSU Rantards.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:15 pm to FourThreeForty
quote:
I can understand the lackluster rushing though forreal. We have only 1 legit running back and our scheme does not highlight the RB whatsoever.
Sounds plausible.
I was impressed to see Kiffin feeding Henry quite a bit on the drive where the Tide punched it in for the win. First and ten at the 25 and Henry made it look easy. That was a beautiful drive. Probably the only complaint you could possibly have was that they scored too fast but they ran the ball 5 out of the last 6 plays so it's not like they didn't try to slow it down and grind it out.
Henry also had a nice opening drive. Three carries and two of them were for double digit yardage including a 20 yarder for a TD.
What happened between Bama's first and last TD drives?
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:18 pm to stat19
quote:
Nothing changes the simple fact that Auburn is best rush defense LSU has faced all year.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:18 pm to BrerTiger
What does it look like for passing? Oh well, LSU is 116th out of 128 D1 teams in passing yards per game.
This post was edited on 10/27/15 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:31 pm to slackster
That's quite some work. I imagine you've done SOS comparisons without the effect of playing Alabama every time some shitty complaint about alabama's schedule has been posted too.
Posted on 10/27/15 at 3:43 pm to BrerTiger
quote:
What happened between Bama's first and last TD drives?
Henry got 28 carries.
Drake got 3.
WR Stewart got 1 on a jet sweep.
Coker got credit for 7, 5 of which were sacks.
To put it simply, Bama just doesn't have the depth at RB right now to line up and pound it out.
Bama signed 4 RBs the year they got Henry. Three (Jones, Tenpenny, and Kamara) left the program.
Drake, despite everyone saying he's fine, doesn't appear to be the same back he was before his injury.
That leaves Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough. For whatever reason, the staff clearly doesn't think either is ready from either a physical or mental standpoint to contribute meaningful minutes right now.
After Henry, Bama's second 'running' play is a shovel pass/jet sweep to a motioning WR. I know that's partially to get the ball into Calvin Ridley's hands more, but it also probably has to do with the lack of RB depth. Henry's already getting more carries than his predecessors did and he simply can't do it all.
Saban's said Scarbrough is getting 'close' to being ready. If he can come in and get 10-12 meaningful touches, you'll see the bitching about lack of running the ball disappear overnight.
ETA - the jet sweeps usually show up as passes in the box score because the WR is in front of the QB ala the Utah Shovel pass but they're really runs.
This post was edited on 10/27/15 at 3:46 pm
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