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SEC Week One Baseball Predictive Stats
Posted on 2/21/17 at 3:30 pm
Posted on 2/21/17 at 3:30 pm
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Top Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Greg Deichmann, COF, LSU (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)
Top Pitcher
Dallas Woolfolk, RHP, Ole Miss (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Collin Snider, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)
Top Starter
Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida (So)
quote:
To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average
quote:
There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current through the weekend’s games
Top Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)
Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Greg Deichmann, COF, LSU (Jr)
Top Defensive-Type Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)
Top Pitcher
Dallas Woolfolk, RHP, Ole Miss (So)
Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Collin Snider, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)
Top Starter
Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida (So)
This post was edited on 2/21/17 at 3:31 pm
4
Posted on 2/21/17 at 3:32 pm to WestCoastAg
Auburn will suck again. There's a predictive stat that you can actually bank on. Nothing like projecting data off of 3 or 4 games
Posted on 2/21/17 at 3:33 pm to warau
But it's fun 
Posted on 2/21/17 at 3:36 pm to WestCoastAg
Chandler Taylor : 2nd best hitter in the SEC, strikes out 1 out of every 3 at bats
A TRUE 3 OUTCOME HITTER
A TRUE 3 OUTCOME HITTER
Posted on 2/21/17 at 3:36 pm to WestCoastAg
Poshe pitches a seven inning no no and he's not at least top ten? The hell is that about?
Posted on 2/21/17 at 3:38 pm to Purplehaze44
Didn't check his stats but his k% probably wasn't high
Posted on 2/21/17 at 3:40 pm to WestCoastAg
It wasn't but still he had a perfect game, their only base runner reached on an error.
I might be biased but if another school's pitcher had thrown a no no and wasn't on there I'd feel that was dumb as well.
I might be biased but if another school's pitcher had thrown a no no and wasn't on there I'd feel that was dumb as well.
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:01 pm to Purplehaze44
I think LSU fans are confused by the rules of baseball:
quote:
he had a perfect game, their only base runner reached on an error
quote:
Perfect games and No-hitters:
An official perfect game occurs when a pitcher (or pitchers) retires each batter on the opposing team during the entire course of a game, which consists of at least nine innings. In a perfect game, no batter reaches any base during the course of the game.
quote:
pitcher had thrown a no no
quote:
An official no-hit game occurs when a pitcher (or pitchers) allows no hits during the entire course of a game, which consists of at least nine innings. In a no-hit game, a batter may reach base via a walk, an error, a hit by pitch, a passed ball or wild pitch on strike three, or catcher's interference.
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:04 pm to rebelrouser
I know you thought it was hilarious to post that to rile some people up, but Poche has a perfect state line. He has pitched 7 innings, has allowed 0 hits, 0 earned runs, and has walked 0 batters. Whatever metric is used to make this list certainly has flaws if a pitcher with that line isn't in the top 10. No metric is perfect
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:20 pm to lsufball19
quote:this isn't a list to decide who had the best performance over the weekend. This is taking the two best things that we have to predict future performance, K% and BB%, and using this past weekends stats to look in the future
Whatever metric is used to make this list certainly has flaws if a pitcher with that line isn't in the top 10
This isn't saying he wasn't one of the 10 performers of the weekend, just that other people had performances that have more favorable predictions when trying to figure out future performance
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:24 pm to WestCoastAg
I understand what the metric is trying to do, but like I said, all metrics have flaws. If you don't allow runners to reach base, then I'd say your predictive value should be pretty good
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:35 pm to Purplehaze44
quote:
It wasn't but still he had a perfect game, their only base runner reached on an error.
I might be biased but if another school's pitcher had thrown a no no and wasn't on there I'd feel that was dumb as well.
There isn't anywhere near enough of a sample size for this to be accurate. Plus the two things it looks for the most for pitchers is strikeout and walks.
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:36 pm to lsufball19
Sure. But the whole point of this is that, for prediction purposes, a pitcher who allows the ball to be put in play isn't going to do well
Sure, there's an inherit flaw with that line of thinking, but that's what's happening with this
Sure, there's an inherit flaw with that line of thinking, but that's what's happening with this
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:42 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
This is taking the two best things that we have to predict future performance, K% and BB%
Do you even FIP or BABIP?
I'm betting that Poche's BABIP is pretty damn solid right about now.
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:43 pm to WestCoastAg
Love this stuff but the sample size is entirely too small.
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:44 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Love this stuff but the sample size is entirely too small.
Which is why this whole thread including my comment is a damn farce.....and worthless.
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:48 pm to LSU316
Not worthless. He's bring info and discussion to the board. Do it weekly and watch it change.
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:48 pm to Farmer1906
Honestly the NCAA baseball season is too short to put a ton of stock into any statistics. 50-55 regular season games and like 1/3 of those are against shitty non con teams
Posted on 2/21/17 at 4:50 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Not worthless.
You're right
quote:
He's bring info
This is worth something I suppose.
quote:
discussion to the board.
This is the worthless part....any discussion or conclusions drawn based on this data is a farce.
quote:
Do it weekly and watch it change.
Correct...and over time you can draw pretty good correlations to future performance.
Posted on 2/21/17 at 6:01 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
A pitcher who allows the ball to be put in play isn't going to do well
Tell that to Greg Maddux and all of the other great contact pitchers.
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