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SEC Teams - Overrated/Underrated since 1989
Posted on 6/15/16 at 8:36 am
Posted on 6/15/16 at 8:36 am
Stassen
Underrated
Missouri - +39
Ole Miss - +37.5
Miss State - +31.5
Alabama - +23.5
South Carolina - +10
Arkansas - +5
Vanderbilt - +5
Overrated
Auburn - -9.5 (was at +24.5 prior to 2014)
Georgia - -36
Tennessee - -44
Texas A&M - -47
LSU - -65.5
Florida - -68.5
Never ranked
Kentucky
Plugging in the numbers:
Since the SECCG
Since the second expansion
Since Current Coach
Takeaways:
Alabama is surprisingly underrated - the trend only recently changing.
Les Miles has had a rough outing as of late.
Georgia was universally overrated with their previous coach.
As overrated as some SEC teams have been, none compare to Texas and USC (champions of overrated - -118 for each since 1989)
Texas A&M would almost be the most overrated if not for the Manziel-miracle year of 2012.
Auburn's two best years in the past 10 (2010 and 2013) were +22 and +24, respectively. They are -36 in the past two years.
UGA is -39 in the past 3 years, while LSU is -30.5 over the past 4.
Auburn has had 3 seasons where they were underrated by over 20 (1993, 2010, 2013) - despite this, they are considered overrated.
Alabama has the most years underrated at 12. Auburn and Georgia are second at 11.
Florida has the most years overrated at 17. Second is Texas A&M at 13, followed by a tie at 12 between Georgia and Tennessee.
Underrated
Missouri - +39
Ole Miss - +37.5
Miss State - +31.5
Alabama - +23.5
South Carolina - +10
Arkansas - +5
Vanderbilt - +5
Overrated
Auburn - -9.5 (was at +24.5 prior to 2014)
Georgia - -36
Tennessee - -44
Texas A&M - -47
LSU - -65.5
Florida - -68.5
Never ranked
Kentucky
Plugging in the numbers:
Since the SECCG
quote:
Missouri - +39
Mississippi - +32.5
Mississippi State - +31.5
Auburn - +14.5
Arkansas - +13
South Carolina - +10
Alabama - +7.5
Vanderbilt - +5
Georgia - -45
Louisiana State - -47.5
Texas A&M - -54
Tennessee - -65
Florida - -72.5
Since the second expansion
quote:
Missouri - +32
Mississippi State - +15
Mississippi - +5
Vanderbilt - +5
Texas A&M - +2.5
Tennessee - +1
Florida - -1
Alabama - -5.5
Auburn- -12
South Carolina - -13
Arkansas - -20
Louisiana State - -30.5
Georgia - -37.5
Since Current Coach
quote:
Mississippi State - +21
Alabama - +9
Mississippi - +5
Texas A&M - +2.5
Tennessee - +1
Florida - +1
Vanderbilt - 0
Arkansas - -4
Auburn - -12
Louisiana State - -32.5
Missouri - N/A
South Carolina - N/A
Georgia - N/A
Takeaways:
Alabama is surprisingly underrated - the trend only recently changing.
Les Miles has had a rough outing as of late.
Georgia was universally overrated with their previous coach.
As overrated as some SEC teams have been, none compare to Texas and USC (champions of overrated - -118 for each since 1989)
Texas A&M would almost be the most overrated if not for the Manziel-miracle year of 2012.
Auburn's two best years in the past 10 (2010 and 2013) were +22 and +24, respectively. They are -36 in the past two years.
UGA is -39 in the past 3 years, while LSU is -30.5 over the past 4.
Auburn has had 3 seasons where they were underrated by over 20 (1993, 2010, 2013) - despite this, they are considered overrated.
Alabama has the most years underrated at 12. Auburn and Georgia are second at 11.
Florida has the most years overrated at 17. Second is Texas A&M at 13, followed by a tie at 12 between Georgia and Tennessee.
This post was edited on 6/15/16 at 8:37 am
13
Posted on 6/15/16 at 8:40 am to skrayper
Dawgs Finna Eat?
Posted on 6/15/16 at 8:42 am to skrayper
quote:
Auburn's two best years in the past 10 (2010 and 2013) were +22 and +24, respectively. They are -36 in the past two years.
quote:
Auburn has had 3 seasons where they were underrated by over 20 (1993, 2010, 2013) - despite this, they are considered overrated.
Why does it seem so difficult to predict Auburn football? Probably no real "reason" or anything that makes them different other than having a couple really crazy underachieving/overachieving seasons to skew the data, but it does seem to be a bit of a trend.
Posted on 6/15/16 at 8:43 am to skrayper
this is so misleading. Looking at those numbers one would assume that UGA typically finishes like 15 spots lower than they're supposed to. Here is a post I made before last season:
09 and 13 were the only 2 years that we really took a nosedive and did horribly compared to preseason. That's twice. And we have a legit reason in 13. 09 we just weren't very good.
quote:
Below is what we've been ranked pre and post season under richt.
Year: Pre/Post
01: NR/22
02: 8/3
03: 11/7
04: 3/7
05: 13/10
06: 15/23
07: 13/2
08: 1/10
09: 13/NR
10: 23/NR
11: 19/19
12: 6/5
13: 5/NR
14: 12/9
So let's see here...
-5 times under Richt we've been preseason top 10. 4 out of those times we've also finished in the top 10.
-6 times we've been preseason ranked 11-15. 4 of those 6 times we've finished in the top 15.
-1 time we've been ranked between 16-20, and we finished in the top 20.
-1 time we've been ranked between 21-25, and finished NR.
-1 time we've started unranked, and finished in the top 25.
09 and 13 were the only 2 years that we really took a nosedive and did horribly compared to preseason. That's twice. And we have a legit reason in 13. 09 we just weren't very good.
This post was edited on 6/15/16 at 8:44 am
Posted on 6/15/16 at 8:49 am to skrayper
Alabama's 2000 football team says "good morning." 
Posted on 6/15/16 at 8:54 am to skrayper
quote:
Les Miles has had a rough outing as of late.
"LSU fans are fricking retarded for wanting Les out"
-tRant
Posted on 6/15/16 at 8:55 am to I-59 Tiger
Auburn's seasons are hard to predict because they never know which checks will clear and which ones won't.
Posted on 6/15/16 at 9:00 am to skrayper
I think it is an odd way to come up with this ranking. Of course we are going to be towards the bottom. We were ranked in all but two preseason polls since 1989, Utah wasn't ranked in 20.
Posted on 6/15/16 at 9:11 am to bgator85
quote:
I think it is an odd way to come up with this ranking.
It definitely is.
Let's say team A was ranked #1 every season for 10 years and finished every season ranked 5th. That's a -40.
Team B starts each season ranked 25th and ends up 20th. That's a +50.
But would anyone really rather be team B, or try to claim superiority over A simply because they weren't as "overrated"?
Also it doesn't really take into account outliers. Let's say you have a team ranked 10th preseason and finish 10th posteason 9 out of 10 seasons. Taht's pretty mf'n consistent. Like unrealistically so. But that other year, they start 1 and finish unranked. So now their "score" here is a -25, when in reality they were pretty much as consistent as you can possibly get.
Posted on 6/15/16 at 9:13 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
But would anyone really rather be team B, or try to claim superiority over A simply because they weren't as "overrated"?
Evidently the OP.
Posted on 6/15/16 at 9:16 am to skrayper
Seems like more of a list of who has underachieved?
Posted on 6/15/16 at 9:29 am to skrayper
Interesting stuff.
Since 1989, the number of seasons in which a program was underrated by more than 7 spots in the rankings:
7- Alabama
6- Auburn
4- Georgia
3- Missouri
3- Ole Miss
3- Miss. St.
3- Tennessee
3- LSU
3- Arkansas
2- Florida
1- S. Carolina
1- Texas A&M
Since 1989, the number of seasons in which a program was overrated by more than 7 spots in the rankings:
8- Auburn
7- LSU
6- Alabama
6- Georgia
6- Texas A&M
5- Tennessee
4- Florida
3- Missouri
1- Ole Miss
1- Miss. St.
1- S. Carolina
1- Arkansas
Auburn is certianly a boom or bust program. They are the most frequently severely overrated program in the SEC since 1989... but they are also the 2nd most frequently severely underrated team in the league.
Here are the number of seasons in which a program has been off by more than 7 points in the rankings, in either direction:
14- Auburn
13- Alabama
10- Georgia
10- LSU
8- Tennessee
7- Texas A&M
6- Florida
6- Missouri
4- Ole Miss
4- Miss. St.
4- Arkansas
2- S. Carolina
Since 1989, the number of seasons in which a program was underrated by more than 7 spots in the rankings:
7- Alabama
6- Auburn
4- Georgia
3- Missouri
3- Ole Miss
3- Miss. St.
3- Tennessee
3- LSU
3- Arkansas
2- Florida
1- S. Carolina
1- Texas A&M
Since 1989, the number of seasons in which a program was overrated by more than 7 spots in the rankings:
8- Auburn
7- LSU
6- Alabama
6- Georgia
6- Texas A&M
5- Tennessee
4- Florida
3- Missouri
1- Ole Miss
1- Miss. St.
1- S. Carolina
1- Arkansas
Auburn is certianly a boom or bust program. They are the most frequently severely overrated program in the SEC since 1989... but they are also the 2nd most frequently severely underrated team in the league.
Here are the number of seasons in which a program has been off by more than 7 points in the rankings, in either direction:
14- Auburn
13- Alabama
10- Georgia
10- LSU
8- Tennessee
7- Texas A&M
6- Florida
6- Missouri
4- Ole Miss
4- Miss. St.
4- Arkansas
2- S. Carolina
Posted on 6/15/16 at 9:32 am to I-59 Tiger
quote:
Alabama's 2000 football team says "good morning."
Such a nose dive. Believe the oline for that team was dubbed "brick squad" early preseason. Played UCLA the first game at the Rose Bowl. Returned the kick off for a TD. After that, the implosion began.
Posted on 6/15/16 at 9:43 am to elposter
quote:
Why does it seem so difficult to predict Auburn football? Probably no real "reason" or anything that makes them different other than having a couple really crazy underachieving/overachieving seasons to skew the data, but it does seem to be a bit of a trend.
Auburn's issue is that aside from the 1980s, they rarely find consistency as a program.
I remember they were severely overrated back in 2003. According to the site linked above, they finished -21 spots below where they were projected to finish. It was a disastrous season compared to what was expected of them. But the very next year, Auburn went 13-0, won the SEC, and should have played for the National Title.... and it was a senior-laden team if I remember correctly. So it seems the talent was there in '03, but for some reason it never came together.
I don't know enough about the situation to know why it didn't. But its obvious from the data above that something was awry that year. According to this, Auburn was +12 in 2002.... -21 in 2004... but then +9 in 2004. One would imagine with Auburn doing so well in the two seasons that book-ended 2003, the talent was there all along. So its not as much as the prognosticators overrated Auburn... its really more like Auburn failed to take advantage of its talent.
Out of SEC teams, there is only one other 3-year period in all of this data that involved a program having a season in which they were severely overrated that was both preceded and followed by seasons in which they were severely underrated: Alabama's 1990 season.
Alabama was +9 in 1989... a team that shared the SEC Title
Alabama was -11 in 1990
Alabama was +18 in 1991
That roller-coaster 3-year period involved a dip and rise of 49 ranking spots total (20 spots between 1989 and '90... and 29 spots between '90 and '91). The Auburn roller-coaster from 2002-2004 was even more pronounced. It covered a dip and rise worth 63 ranking spots. Pretty amazing.
Posted on 6/15/16 at 10:14 am to BHMKyle
Does this show issues with the team or the rankings? Or does it show how competitive all the leagues have become? There are very few locks left on the schedules anymore when playing against power 5 schools.
Auburn has always been a roller coaster ride. Often missing that single spark that turns a team from ok to great.
Auburn has always been a roller coaster ride. Often missing that single spark that turns a team from ok to great.
Posted on 6/15/16 at 10:23 am to skrayper
What the hell is this crap?
Posted on 6/15/16 at 10:55 am to skrayper
quote:
These numbers do not really reflect how good the teams are; they instead reflect how well they lived up to preseason expectations
So this is more about how good the media can vote?
What a stupid idea from fricking jump.
Posted on 6/15/16 at 11:05 am to skrayper
The "bottom 10" most overrated teams overall.
10. Miami (-61)
9. LSU (-65.5)
8. Florida (-68.5)
7. Michigan (-74.5)
6. Florida State (-83.5)
5. Notre Dame (-86.5)
4. Nebraska (-90.5)
3. Oklahoma (-93.5)
2. USC (-118)
and the most overrated team of all time (to no one's surprise here)
1. Texas (-118 has tiebreaker over USC because they're a trainwreck)
10. Miami (-61)
9. LSU (-65.5)
8. Florida (-68.5)
7. Michigan (-74.5)
6. Florida State (-83.5)
5. Notre Dame (-86.5)
4. Nebraska (-90.5)
3. Oklahoma (-93.5)
2. USC (-118)
and the most overrated team of all time (to no one's surprise here)
1. Texas (-118 has tiebreaker over USC because they're a trainwreck)
Posted on 6/15/16 at 11:06 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
the most overrated team of all time
since 1989
Posted on 6/15/16 at 1:23 pm to craigbiggio
quote:Yup, but watch the major comeback after the minor setback, baw
"LSU fans are fricking retarded for wanting Les out" -tRant
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