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re: SEC Bubble Watch
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:48 pm to superstroke33
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:48 pm to superstroke33
UT might be in the best position right now, but I think to feel safe, they need 5-1 the rest of the way, and that'll be tough with games in Lexington and Columbia
I'd give UGA the best chance based on remaining schedules
I'd give UGA the best chance based on remaining schedules
1
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:50 pm to GatorsGators
If we can actually beat UK and 1 of either Arky or Bama on the road, we may have a chance. Otherwise we're probably NIT or bust
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:50 pm to bigDgator
quote:
2 or 3 years ago Tennessee was something like 15-10 and went on a good run to finish the season and ended up getting in as an 11 seed and got to the Sweet 16. Lost to 2 seed Michigan by 2 or would have made it to the Elite 8.
Ya, the notion of we don't deserve it is a little silly
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:01 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
Alabama has better "best wins," not as bad "bad losses," and in the case that Alabama finishes 5-1, they'd be 12-6 in conference.
Doesn't Alabama have just one Top 50 RPI win? That was South Carolina last week. Pretty sure both Bama and Auburn each have one.
And one Top 50 win is not going to get anyone into the Tournament. Same reason why Georgia is not getting in at this point.
Record vs. the Current RPI Top 50:
2-7 Tennessee
2-7 Vanderbilt
2-4 Arkansas
1-8 Ole Miss
1-6 Georgia
1-5 Alabama
1-4 Auburn
Losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100:
0- Ole Miss
1- Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, Vandy
2- Arkansas
Not much of a difference between any of those 7 resumes. They all look like a typical NIT resume to me.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:05 pm to allin2010
quote:
We don't deserve to be.
That 3-game skid vs UGA, Vandy, and Ole Miss to open the SEC killed us. Especially since we lost to OM twice. I had hoped we would be in the bubble team discussion at this point but you're right. We don't deserve it.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:06 pm to bigDgator
That UT team also had a hugely impressive blowout win over Virginia and was in the KenPom top 15 for most of the season
I wouldn't compare this Arkansas team to them
I wouldn't compare this Arkansas team to them
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:11 pm to rockiee
quote:
Ya, the notion of we don't deserve it is a little silly
Not really. Look at Arkansas' resume against teams currently projected to be in the field according to Joe Lunardi:
3-seed Florida: Lost by 9 points
3-seed Kentucky: Lost by 26 points
8-seed Minnesota: Lost by 14 points
8-seed Oklahoma St: Lost by 28 points
Arkansas is 0-4 against teams currently projected in the field, and they've lose those four games by an average of more than 19 points per contest.
Tennessee (2), Alabama, and Auburn each have one win against teams currently projected in the field.
Arkansas, Georgia, and Ole Miss still do not. If I was an Arkansas fan, I would not be so confident in my team's chances.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:14 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Not really. Look at Arkansas' resume against teams currently projected to be in the field according to Joe Lunardi:
And why are we projected in the field? Because similar teams have failed around us. We are going to get what we deserve whether that be in the tourney or not. I was not making an argument that we should be in, instead that it is silly to play the "we don't deserve it" card. You missed the whole point of my statement. Go read some of my other posts in this thread first.
This post was edited on 2/13/17 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:44 pm to rockiee
He saw hog logo and went for his normal negative bitch novella response.
ETA: I don't think one of us are confident right now, Kyle.
ETA: I don't think one of us are confident right now, Kyle.
This post was edited on 2/13/17 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:47 pm to piggilicious
quote:
I don't think one of us are confident right now
Exaclty, I pretty much said that on the other page.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:49 pm to CockyTime
quote:your not a lock. Finish 50/50 and lose in the first round of the SEC you are probably out. But take care of business you'll be there.
i may be skeptical and still upset about last year but I wouldn't call us a lock just yet.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:51 pm to rockiee
quote:
And why are we projected in the field? Because similar teams have failed around us.
Actually Arkansas' resume has more "fail" than the others, IMO.
If you look at the 8 teams most squarely on the bubble according to ESPN, here are the number of wins those teams have against opponents considered to be currently in the field (Top 12 seeds only):
5- Georgia Tech
3- Marquette
3- Indiana
2- Clemson
2- Tennessee
2- Seton Hall
1- Wake Forest
0- Arkansas
Arkansas in the only one of those 8 without a win over an opponent to be projected in the field at this current moment.
Arkansas also happens to be the only one of those 8 with multiple losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100. Wake Forest has zero such losses. All other have 1. Arkansas has 2... including one to a team currently ranked #240. No other team on that list has a loss to anyone lower than #167.
quote:
We are going to get what we deserve whether that be in the tourney or not.
This is true. I think Lunardi is curiously optimistic about Arkansas' chances. I think that probably has more to do with the SEC likely deserving 4 teams in (considering we have 10 Top 70 teams) than it does Arkansas deserving to be in.
But Arkansas' resume is weak, no doubt. Weaker than most other "bubble" teams. Which is why its not at all silly for someone to state such a thing, which is what you said in the first place. If you think they deserve in, have at it. But there is no need to say its silly for others to believe otherwise.
This post was edited on 2/13/17 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:54 pm to MIZ_COU
quote:
your not a lock. Finish 50/50 and lose in the first round of the SEC you are probably out. But take care of business you'll be there.
South Carolina, going 3-3 the rest of the way, would have an RPI of about 25 going into the conference tourney
They're a lock
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:56 pm to GatorsGators
Probably.
What about 1-5? We are talking lock.
What about 1-5? We are talking lock.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 4:58 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Which is why its not at all silly for someone to state such a thing, which is what you said in the first place. If you think they deserve in, have at it. But there is no need to say its silly for others to believe otherwise.
Once again you missed the whole point. When I said "we" I'm referring to anyone using the statement about what they deserve or not. It has nothing to do with what I believe Arkansas has earned. I have made a few posts today stating that I was shocked we were still on bubble contention. Why would I say things like that if I "liked" our resume or believe we had a good one. I'm not sure how this is still confusing to you.
quote:
This is true.
It appears you don't think that is true or you wouldn't have responded with the above.
This post was edited on 2/13/17 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 2/13/17 at 5:04 pm to MIZ_COU
quote:
MIZ_COU
You've been saying a lot of dumb shite today.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 5:08 pm to MIZ_COU
1-5 would put them at around 37 RPI, 20-10 (11-7). They'd still probably get in.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 5:50 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
BHMKyle
I posted this earlier and I will post it again...these are the bubble teams surrounding Arkansas....
Arkansas: 18-7, 42 RPI, 7-5 vs. Top 100
Rhode Island: 16-8, 39 RPI, 3-8 vs. Top 100
Seton Hall: 15-9, 47 RPI, 5-8 vs. Top 100
Syracuse: 16-10, 71 RPI, 8-7 vs. Top 100
Marquette: 15-10, 84 RPI, 6-9 vs. Top 100
Clemson: 13-11, 55 RPI, 8-10 vs. Top 100
Arkansas can finish 4-2 which would put them at 22-10 overall and 11-7 in the league and likely make the tourney as a 10 seed, not a play in game. 1-1 in the SEC tourney puts them at 23-11 overall and squarely in the tourney.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 6:24 pm to Stonehog
quote:I have been on a roll. Must be PMS. Or I'm channeling Phat Phil
You've been saying a lot of dumb shite today.
This post was edited on 2/13/17 at 6:31 pm
Posted on 2/13/17 at 6:24 pm to Hawgeye
That's a pretty reductionist look, though.
Arkansas' Top 100 wins:
UTA
Houston
North Dakota State
@Tennessee
@Texas A&M
@Vanderbilt
Alabama
Not impressive.
Arkansas' Top 100 wins:
UTA
Houston
North Dakota State
@Tennessee
@Texas A&M
@Vanderbilt
Alabama
Not impressive.
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