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SEC Bubble Watch
Posted on 2/13/17 at 2:50 pm
Posted on 2/13/17 at 2:50 pm
Locks: Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina
Should be in: none
On the bubble: Arkansas, Tennessee
Arkansas 18-7 (7-5), RPI: 44, SOS: 69
Best wins: @Tennessee, @Vanderbilt, UTA, Houston
Worst losses: @Missouri, Mississippi State
2-4 vs. Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100
The selling point here is the overall record and the record against the Top 100. However, there aren't many good wins, with zero wins against teams likely to get an at-large bid. That loss to Mizzou doesn't help. If they're to get into the tournament, they're going to need to knock off one of the big three. They have two chances left (@USC and @UF) before the conference tourney.
Tennessee 14-11 (6-6), RPI: 47, SOS: 5
Best wins: Kentucky, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss
Worst losses: @Mississippi State
2-7 record vs. Top 50, 8-10 record vs. Top 100
There are good wins here, and it's tough to penalize a team for playing Gonzaga, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Oregon out-of-conference. The only thing holding them back from a bid is the record. The issue is that they have two likely losses on the schedule (games in Rupp and Columbia), and 14 losses might be too many for an at-large bid.
Not on the bubble right now but could make a compelling case with a run: Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama
Ole Miss 15-10 (6-6), RPI: 59, SOS: 31
Best wins: Tennessee, @Vanderbilt, @Auburn, Memphis
Worst losses: no bad losses
1-8 vs. Top 50, 4-10 vs. Top 100
That record against the Top 50 is ugly, but not having any ugly losses is nice. This team obviously needs to improve on its best wins; that home game against South Carolina is probably all but a must-win. Get a good win, and this team is catapulted into the bubble conversation.
Georgia 14-11 (5-7), RPI: 53, SOS: 21
Best wins: @Tennessee, @Georgia Tech, @Ole Miss, @Auburn
1-6 vs. Top 50, 7-10 vs. Top 100
Their resume is pretty similar to Tennessee's without that win over Kentucky. They need to pad their win total as well as get a signature win. Their schedule sets up nicely for both with four of their remaining six games being at home, including a home game against Kentucky. They probably need to finish 5-1 to feel good, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility. 4-2, as long as it includes a win over Kentucky, wouldn't eliminate them.
Alabama 14-10 (7-5), RPI: 74, SOS: 43
Best wins: @South Carolina, @Georgia
Worst losses: @Texas
1-5 vs. Top 50, 4-9 vs. Top 100
Their road win over South Carolina keeps them in the fringe bubble picture for now, as it's a good enough best win to sustain a profile. Their schedule sets up nicely for them to pad their record, which is what they're going to need to do with a bad profile outside of that one win. 5-1 is the minimum for them to have any chance going into the conference tourney.
Should be in: none
On the bubble: Arkansas, Tennessee
Arkansas 18-7 (7-5), RPI: 44, SOS: 69
Best wins: @Tennessee, @Vanderbilt, UTA, Houston
Worst losses: @Missouri, Mississippi State
2-4 vs. Top 50, 7-5 vs. Top 100
The selling point here is the overall record and the record against the Top 100. However, there aren't many good wins, with zero wins against teams likely to get an at-large bid. That loss to Mizzou doesn't help. If they're to get into the tournament, they're going to need to knock off one of the big three. They have two chances left (@USC and @UF) before the conference tourney.
Tennessee 14-11 (6-6), RPI: 47, SOS: 5
Best wins: Kentucky, Kansas State, Georgia Tech, Ole Miss
Worst losses: @Mississippi State
2-7 record vs. Top 50, 8-10 record vs. Top 100
There are good wins here, and it's tough to penalize a team for playing Gonzaga, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Oregon out-of-conference. The only thing holding them back from a bid is the record. The issue is that they have two likely losses on the schedule (games in Rupp and Columbia), and 14 losses might be too many for an at-large bid.
Not on the bubble right now but could make a compelling case with a run: Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama
Ole Miss 15-10 (6-6), RPI: 59, SOS: 31
Best wins: Tennessee, @Vanderbilt, @Auburn, Memphis
Worst losses: no bad losses
1-8 vs. Top 50, 4-10 vs. Top 100
That record against the Top 50 is ugly, but not having any ugly losses is nice. This team obviously needs to improve on its best wins; that home game against South Carolina is probably all but a must-win. Get a good win, and this team is catapulted into the bubble conversation.
Georgia 14-11 (5-7), RPI: 53, SOS: 21
Best wins: @Tennessee, @Georgia Tech, @Ole Miss, @Auburn
1-6 vs. Top 50, 7-10 vs. Top 100
Their resume is pretty similar to Tennessee's without that win over Kentucky. They need to pad their win total as well as get a signature win. Their schedule sets up nicely for both with four of their remaining six games being at home, including a home game against Kentucky. They probably need to finish 5-1 to feel good, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility. 4-2, as long as it includes a win over Kentucky, wouldn't eliminate them.
Alabama 14-10 (7-5), RPI: 74, SOS: 43
Best wins: @South Carolina, @Georgia
Worst losses: @Texas
1-5 vs. Top 50, 4-9 vs. Top 100
Their road win over South Carolina keeps them in the fringe bubble picture for now, as it's a good enough best win to sustain a profile. Their schedule sets up nicely for them to pad their record, which is what they're going to need to do with a bad profile outside of that one win. 5-1 is the minimum for them to have any chance going into the conference tourney.
5
Posted on 2/13/17 at 2:55 pm to GatorsGators
Alabama needs to win out. Should have beaten UK if not for shitty FT %
Posted on 2/13/17 at 2:58 pm to biggsc
quote:
Should have beaten UK if not for shitty FT %
Don't know if they win, but the FT shooting was beyond horrible. Many of them weren't even close. I'm not asking for perfection, but it's not to much to ask for 65% from the line.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:00 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
If they're to get into the tournament, they're going to need to knock off one of the big three. They have two chances left (@USC and @UF) before the conference tourney.
I disagree, not that I would be happy with it. I still think there is a good chance we get in winning every conference game left except for USCe and UF. In that situation I also believe we would have to go 1-1 at worst in the SEC tourney. If you were talking about from a lock respect then I agree though.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:00 pm to Aman
A middle school team should do better than 9-26 or whatever the frick it was.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:03 pm to Aman
Alabama Basketball this year has been like Jekyll and Hyde
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:06 pm to rockiee
quote:I'm really sensing a lot of parallels between South Carolina from last year and this Arkansas team. Sure, Arkansas' SOS is better, but both teams had not a whole lot going for them outside of their records. Even if Arkansas does go 4-2 (which I doubt will happen; they'll lose at least one of those remaining games the way they've been playing), they'll need a big win in the conference tourney.
I disagree, not that I would be happy with it. I still think there is a good chance we get in winning every conference game left except for USCe and UF. In that situation I also believe we would have to go 1-1 at worst in the SEC tourney. If you were talking about from a lock respect then I agree though
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:07 pm to HempHead
To shoot that bad FT% at home is shameful
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:12 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
Alabama 14-10 (7-5), RPI: 74, SOS: 43
Best wins: @South Carolina, @Georgia
We have a better RPI (66) and beat Bama twice.. Also have a better records... Not sure why they are listed as a bubble team. We don't deserve to be.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:19 pm to allin2010
Arkansas resume is atrocious and one of the reasons why rpi sucks and is going the way of the dodo bird
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:22 pm to MeatPants
We don't deserve to be in. If we do get in, we'll be embarrassed in the first round. It won't be pretty.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:23 pm to biggsc
quote:
Alabama needs to win out. Should have beaten UK if not for shitty FT %
Cannot remember the last time I saw a statline where a team shot better from the field than from the line.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:24 pm to allin2010
Alabama has better "best wins," not as bad "bad losses," and in the case that Alabama finishes 5-1, they'd be 12-6 in conference.
I know that Auburn has the sweep, but that's it. 8 spots in the RPI don't mean anything.
Neither team will make the tourney, likely, but Bama probably has a 1% chance versus Auburn's 0.1% chance.
I know that Auburn has the sweep, but that's it. 8 spots in the RPI don't mean anything.
Neither team will make the tourney, likely, but Bama probably has a 1% chance versus Auburn's 0.1% chance.
This post was edited on 2/13/17 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:29 pm to GatorsGators
The only bubble we are on is the NIT bubble, so I don't even know why you bothered to list us.Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:29 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
I'm really sensing a lot of parallels between South Carolina from last year and this Arkansas team. Sure, Arkansas' SOS is better, but both teams had not a whole lot going for them outside of their records. Even if Arkansas does go 4-2 (which I doubt will happen; they'll lose at least one of those remaining games the way they've been playing), they'll need a big win in the conference tourney.
Eh, like I said, I won't feel great about it and there is certainly a chance what you said happens. I just think in the situation I laid out we have a little better than 50% chance of making it. Obviously there are so many other factors outside the SEC. I'm shocked that they are even at the bubble atm and that is mainly because so many other "bubble" teams are struggling.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:29 pm to GatorsGators
No one outside of the top 3 going without a good run. Like win out and SEC semi's minimum
and really mostly 10rc has that shot
and really mostly 10rc has that shot
This post was edited on 2/13/17 at 4:47 pm
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:38 pm to MIZ_COU
i may be skeptical and still upset about last year but I wouldn't call us a lock just yet. Until we find an offensive groove that we can rely on every game, we can really lose to anybody. I think our defense for the most part makes us capable of beating anybody also but we need more from Dozier and Notice and need Silva to stop be a fouling machine.
A win against Arkansas or Tennessee may move us to that lock status but not quite yet
A win against Arkansas or Tennessee may move us to that lock status but not quite yet
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:38 pm to HTDawg
quote:Georgia would be a 2 or 3 seed in the NIT right now. Win the next two games and you'll be seeing them in a bunch of brackets.
The only bubble we are on is the NIT bubble, so I don't even know why you bothered to list us.
And, to be fair to this Georgia team, five of their seven losses are to the big three -- two of which were lost in overtime, two of which were decided by six points or less. They're the fourth best team in the conference imo, and they're the team I think has the best chance to make a run.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:41 pm to MIZ_COU
Auburn is probably better than Bama and and probably has as good a chance of getting in the tourney as Bama, which is still very slim, but it's slim for any of these teams, including Ark.
UT still has the best hope to squeak in, imo.
UT still has the best hope to squeak in, imo.
Posted on 2/13/17 at 3:42 pm to Pygthagorean Theorem
quote:
We don't deserve to be in. If we do get in, we'll be embarrassed in the first round. It won't be pretty.
2 or 3 years ago Tennessee was something like 15-10 and went on a good run to finish the season and ended up getting in as an 11 seed and got to the Sweet 16. Lost to 2 seed Michigan by 2 or would have made it to the Elite 8.
So you just never know.
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