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RPI Update after today's games - 2/2 (updated via ESPN 9:30 AM)

Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:58 pm
Posted by Cheeky Fellow
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe MARTA Station
Member since Jan 2016
1458 posts
Posted on 2/2/16 at 10:58 pm
Via ESPN RPI

11. Texas A&M
20. Florida
26. Kentucky
29. South Carolina
46. Alabama
58. Georgia
64. Vanderbilt
72. LSU
83. Arkansas
99. Tennessee
96. Ole Miss
110. Auburn
167. Mississippi State
188. Missouri
This post was edited on 2/3/16 at 8:28 am
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62686 posts
Posted on 2/2/16 at 11:01 pm to
Jim Dunaway, radio and TV personality in Birmingham, has a bet with LT, on the same sports radio show, that South Carolina will not make the NCAA tourney.

I think Jim's way off, but I do feel SC is slipping.
Posted by Pnels08
Member since Jul 2014
9179 posts
Posted on 2/2/16 at 11:04 pm to
Whats bamas remaining schedule look like? They could easily make a push for the tourney at the end. They could end up with a top 40 rpi
Posted by Cheeky Fellow
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe MARTA Station
Member since Jan 2016
1458 posts
Posted on 2/2/16 at 11:07 pm to
Best realistic case is to win our winnable home games :
Missouri
Arkansas
Auburn
Mississippi State

Win two of
@LSU
@Kentucky
@Georgia
@Florida
Vs Texas A&M

That works make us 9-9 in league with an RPI of 45 or so.

Not sure we can do that, but is not a crazy scenario.
This post was edited on 2/2/16 at 11:08 pm
Posted by Dustin Johnson
Member since Nov 2015
1350 posts
Posted on 2/2/16 at 11:13 pm to
The SEC is remarkably bad this year
Posted by Pnels08
Member since Jul 2014
9179 posts
Posted on 2/2/16 at 11:15 pm to
That is said every year. They can still get 5 teams in the tourney maybe 6 which isn't bad at all
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 2/2/16 at 11:20 pm to
quote:

Whats bamas remaining schedule look like? They could easily make a push for the tourney at the end. They could end up with a top 40 rpi

RPI isn't everything.

9-9 in conference for Alabama probably wouldn't be enough. And a 6-3 conference finish is a stretch.
Posted by Projectpat
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2011
10521 posts
Posted on 2/2/16 at 11:25 pm to
quote:

11. Texas A&M
21. Florida


You're all welcome for redeeming the conference vs the big 12-1-1-2+1+1
Posted by Govt Tide
Member since Nov 2009
9110 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 12:06 am to
RPI isn't everything but plenty of teams with an 18-12 record with quality wins over the likes of Notre Dame, Texas A&M (assuming we win), Wichita State, Clemson, South Carolina, and one of the following (@LSU/@Kentucky/@Georgia/@Florida) have gotten in the dance. Especially those with only 1 bad loss (@Auburn). I think Alabama goes if they win out at home and steal one more road game to get to .500 in the league and 18.
Posted by GatorsGators
Member since Oct 2012
13454 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 12:31 am to
RPIforecast projects that a 18-12 (9-9) team would have an RPI of 53. That team wouldn't make the tourney.

And a 16-14 finish is more likely with all of those tough road games anyways. That team would have an RPI of 79 and would be an NIT bubble.

So it would pretty much take a near miracle for Bama to make the tourney. Both Georgia and Arkansas are in better shape with their remaining schedules imo.
Posted by tzimme4
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
28340 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 12:43 am to
LSU up to #56 according to KenPom LINK
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
79820 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 2:21 am to
Never mind.
This post was edited on 2/3/16 at 2:22 am
Posted by Govt Tide
Member since Nov 2009
9110 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 2:31 am to
"That team wouldn't make the tourney"

Teams with strong non conference RPIs that finish .500 in their conference routinely make the NCAA tournament.
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 6:42 am to
quote:

Teams with strong non conference RPIs that finish .500 in their conference routinely make the NCAA tournament.


If yall's RPI isn't in the 40's and you only go 9-9 in conference, I don't see yall in the tournament. That's just my opinion though.
This post was edited on 2/3/16 at 6:43 am
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
51206 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 6:56 am to
Our only top 50 win is no longer in the top 50.

NIT here we come.
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 7:01 am to
KenPom SEC Page

Posted by bamafan1001
Member since Jun 2011
15783 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 7:45 am to
quote:

Best realistic case is to win our winnable home games :
Missouri
Arkansas
Auburn
Mississippi State

Win two of
@LSU
@Kentucky
@Georgia
@Florida
Vs Texas A&M

That works make us 9-9 in league with an RPI of 45 or so.

Not sure we can do that, but is not a crazy scenario.


Id give Bama about 30% chance of pulling that off. Will be tough with the injuries and frankly lack of developed players.
Posted by Arksulli
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
25155 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 8:24 am to
quote:

Id give Bama about 30% chance of pulling that off. Will be tough with the injuries and frankly lack of developed players.


At this point aiming for the NIT might be better for the Tide then the NCAAT. I don't think this Bama team could make a deep run in the Big Dance, but they could do some damage in the NIT.
Posted by Cheeky Fellow
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe MARTA Station
Member since Jan 2016
1458 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 8:30 am to
quote:

9-9 in conference for Alabama probably wouldn't be enough


Disagree. We'd have 4 Top 50 wins and probably 8-9 Top 100 wins with only 1 bad loss. We'd firmly check off all the criteria except for "do they have NBA players on the team".

quote:

And a 6-3 conference finish is a stretch.


The only stretch is winning one of the difficult games I noted. We play 4 games we should win at home. We have to win 2 of @LSU, @UK, @UGA, @UF, A&M. Won't be easy, but far from impossible.
Posted by Cheeky Fellow
Brookhaven-Oglethorpe MARTA Station
Member since Jan 2016
1458 posts
Posted on 2/3/16 at 8:32 am to
quote:

RPIforecast projects that a 18-12 (9-9) team would have an RPI of 53. That team wouldn't make the tourney.


We'd need to win at least 2 SECT games and 1 would probably need to be against South Carolina/Texas A&M/LSU. If we finish at 20-13 with 5 Top 50 wins, 9 Top 100 wins and only a couple of 100+ losses with an RPI right inside 50 we are squarely in the mix.

Not probable, but also not a pipe dream. We will probably lose a home game to Auburn/Arkansas or something anyway, because we are banged up and not that good, but the fact that it won't take us sweeping road games at FLA/LSU/UK to have a shot is pretty remarkable.
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