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Projections for this Year
Posted on 6/10/16 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 6/10/16 at 4:02 pm
I went through the schedules for each SEC team, and put a probability for each team to win every game. Here's what I came up with:
Projected likely SEC wins for each team:
EAST
5.90- Tennessee
4.92- Georgia
4.55- Florida
3.10- Missouri
2.75- S. Carolina
1.85- Kentucky
1.63- Vanderbilt
WEST
6.35- Alabama
6.15- LSU
4.95- Ole Miss
4.25- Auburn
3.45- Mississippi St.
3.45- Arkansas
2.75- Texas A&M
While I'm not sure that Texas A&M will truly be the "worst" team in the SEC West, I think their schedule is very unfortunate. Not only do they play Tennessee out of the East (who I've projected to win the East), but they play all of the other 3 "weaker" SEC West teams away from home: Arkansas in Dallas... @ Auburn... and @ Mississippi State.
Their home schedule is loaded with home games against Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, and Ole Miss. But will the Aggies be good enough to beat any of those teams? I don't think so. It's almost as if you'd rather reverse the venue of every SEC game if you were them. Not liking their chances to have a great season.
Another team with a very difficult schedule is Alabama. While I project them to have the best SEC and overall record next year, their schedule is extremely difficult. Their four toughest games are all away from home: LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and USC (non-conference). That plus a game @ Arkansas makes for an extremely difficult road schedule.
Hard to think Alabama will be able to muster more than 10 wins this year. Although I do think 10-2 is very likely.
The bottomline, parity has returned to the league. I would not be surprised if no team escaped the regular season with more than 10 wins.
Projected likely SEC wins for each team:
EAST
5.90- Tennessee
4.92- Georgia
4.55- Florida
3.10- Missouri
2.75- S. Carolina
1.85- Kentucky
1.63- Vanderbilt
WEST
6.35- Alabama
6.15- LSU
4.95- Ole Miss
4.25- Auburn
3.45- Mississippi St.
3.45- Arkansas
2.75- Texas A&M
While I'm not sure that Texas A&M will truly be the "worst" team in the SEC West, I think their schedule is very unfortunate. Not only do they play Tennessee out of the East (who I've projected to win the East), but they play all of the other 3 "weaker" SEC West teams away from home: Arkansas in Dallas... @ Auburn... and @ Mississippi State.
Their home schedule is loaded with home games against Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, and Ole Miss. But will the Aggies be good enough to beat any of those teams? I don't think so. It's almost as if you'd rather reverse the venue of every SEC game if you were them. Not liking their chances to have a great season.
Another team with a very difficult schedule is Alabama. While I project them to have the best SEC and overall record next year, their schedule is extremely difficult. Their four toughest games are all away from home: LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and USC (non-conference). That plus a game @ Arkansas makes for an extremely difficult road schedule.
Hard to think Alabama will be able to muster more than 10 wins this year. Although I do think 10-2 is very likely.
The bottomline, parity has returned to the league. I would not be surprised if no team escaped the regular season with more than 10 wins.
9
Posted on 6/10/16 at 4:04 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
EAST 5.90- Tennessee 4.92- Georgia 4.55- Florida 3.10- Missouri 2.75- S. Carolina 1.85- Kentucky 1.63- Auburn
FIFY
Posted on 6/10/16 at 4:07 pm to BHMKyle
Did you not see Bama play the toughest schedule of any national champion in the history of college football last year. Tough schedules don"t bother Bama.
Posted on 6/10/16 at 4:09 pm to BHMKyle
Kentucky too high
Posted on 6/10/16 at 4:22 pm to remaster916
quote:
Did you not see Bama play the toughest schedule of any national champion in the history of college football last year
Until Bama got to the playoff, the schedule was actually pretty weak for a typical SEC Champ. Just look at the final rankings of each of their opponents prior to the playoff:
#10 Ole Miss- at home
#16 LSU- at home
#21 Wisconsin- in Dallas
#22 Tennessee- at home
#25 Florida- in Atlanta
Not sure I can ever remember an SEC Champion not playing anyone in the Top 9 prior to bowl season. Also not sure I can remember an SEC Champion not playing a single team that finished the season ranked in a road game.
Last season, Bama got all of their toughest games inside Bryant-Denny.
Next season is looking to be the exact opposite.
Posted on 6/10/16 at 4:26 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Projections for this Year
Posted on 6/10/16 at 5:52 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Their home schedule is loaded with home games against Alabama
Alabama is actually at home against TAMU.
Posted on 6/10/16 at 5:55 pm to BHMKyle
Ole Miss paid good money for the '16 class so we better see some productivity on the field. If that happens, OM will absolutely wreck shite in the regular season.*
*Ole Miss is ineligible for postseason play.
*Ole Miss is ineligible for postseason play.
Posted on 6/10/16 at 5:56 pm to BHMKyle
LSU will not be top 3 in West.
Posted on 6/10/16 at 6:03 pm to BHMKyle
Why the final rankings? There is a reason that their final rankings were lower, because Alabama beat them.
At the time of the game, Alabama beat #8 unbeaten Georgia; #9 unbeaten Texas A&M; & #2 unbeaten LSU.
At the time of the game, Alabama beat #8 unbeaten Georgia; #9 unbeaten Texas A&M; & #2 unbeaten LSU.
Posted on 6/10/16 at 6:05 pm to remaster916
Let's just take a moment to reflect on the fact that 10-2 would be considered a down year for Alabama
Posted on 6/10/16 at 6:47 pm to genro
quote:
10-2
You shut your mouth right now.
Posted on 6/10/16 at 7:51 pm to BHMKyle
Bama played 14 teams with winning records and beat 13 of them. Played 13 teams that went to a bowl game, played 9 teams that won bowl games. Played 9 Top 25 teams, beat 5 Top Ten teams when that played them, 4 of which were away from BDS. Played 6 10 win teams and 9 teams that won 9 games or more.
Toughest schedule in the nation last year.
Toughest schedule in the nation last year.
Posted on 6/10/16 at 9:57 pm to remaster916
quote:
play the toughest schedule of any national champion in the history of college football
You dare say
Posted on 6/10/16 at 9:59 pm to nc14
quote:
LSU will not be top 3 in West.
Yes we will.
Posted on 6/10/16 at 10:51 pm to remaster916
Toughest schedule of All Time. And it's not even close. Difference between #1 and #2 is greater than the difference between #3 and #27.
Billingsley’s Top 50 most difficult schedules in College Football history
1869-2015
LINK
Billingsley’s Top 50 most difficult schedules in College Football history
1869-2015
LINK
This post was edited on 6/10/16 at 10:57 pm
Posted on 6/10/16 at 10:56 pm to ALA2262
quote:
Toughest schedule of All Time.
that's absurd. Posted on 6/11/16 at 12:21 am to nc14
Either you are a dumbass or you just despise LSU that damn bad. 
Posted on 6/11/16 at 12:36 am to ALA2262
quote:
Toughest schedule of All Time. And it's not even close. Difference between #1 and #2 is greater than the difference between #3 and #27.
Billingsley’s Top 50 most difficult schedules in College Football history
1869-2015
That's an interesting site. Thanks for the link.
Posted on 6/11/16 at 4:13 am to CrimsonCrusade
Nvm. I misread.
This post was edited on 6/11/16 at 4:15 am
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