Power Rankings Game of the Week #2 - Arkansas at Auburn

Arky over Auburn?

Interdasting.

Looking forward to actually watching the game. I think it's a very close game that could go either way. I like Auburn (obviously) but the ability of Allen worries me. It really hinges on the AU DL vs AR OL in my opinion. That matchup will make or break.

Auburn covers the spread in this one.

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semotruman

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Appreciate the hard work you put in on these, but can you also add a text copy to the image? Work filters block pictures.

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add a text copy to the image?

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Here is some Auburn writeup I copied




Auburn


Season Recap

Back on December 28, 2008. Auburn made the program identity shifting decision to name an Arthur Gustavo Malzahn as offensive coordinator. Auburn fans never could have realized that hte cost of chasing a new offensive identity was to watch a perennial top 25 defense drop out of the top 50 from 2009-2015.

As the memories of Tuberville's defenses are fading in the collective conscience of college football, the hire of Kevin "Steele Curtain" has pushed the defense to stake claim to the old traditions. Auburn's 2016 defense is #11 in scoring defense and #8/#9 in efficiency by S&P+/FEI respectively. With all the excitement around the SEC, the news that Auburn's defense is back has gone unnoticed, holding 5 out of 6 opponenets to their lowest scoring outputs all year. With an elite defense to rely on Gus Malzahn can finally utilize SEC Passer Rating/Completion % leader & resident artist Sean White to full effect to be a fearsome opponent.


Critical Match-ups

Carl Lawson vs Arkansas OTs

After years of the hype express leaving the station with Carl Lawson on board, the DE has finally begun to earn his ticket after knocking off some rust. In the SEC, Lawson is #2 in sacks (6.0) and #1 in QB Hurries (11) according to CFBstats(?) In the most recent 3 game stretch, Lawson has 5 sacks with 4 against SEC competition. Trying to stop Lawson will be Arkansas' OL, who is allowing a league worst 17 sacks. Austin Allen better buy some extra rib padding if he wants to avoid an early grave.


Players to Watch
Sean White - Sean White is placing himself squarely as the best QB in the SEC. After 6 games against multiple top 15 defenses, Sean White is leading the SEC in key categories such as Passer Rating, Completion Percentage and Yards/Attempt. With his dominant performances, it is easy to see why Auburn started the week favored by 9 against Arkansas. Hopefully Kerryon has recovered from the leg injury suffered in the MSU game, if not, Pettway has proven that he's more than up to the task for the Auburn offense.


Why Auburn Will Win

Auburn is ranked in the top 10 in (I guess offense/defense) efficiency by S&P+, F+/- and FEI ranking compared to Arkansas being outside the top 40 in each. Time of possession will be in this game. With Auburn marching out of the SEC's highest rating passer, #2 rushing attack and top 10 defense, it is hard to see an Arkansas team who struggled to win by 1 over the fearsome LaTech keeping step on the road. Auburn at home will win by double digits against the Hogs.


Prediction

Auburn Perspective- Despite some clever game planning by Bret Bielema, Auburn just outclasses Arkansas to win by double digits

Auburn


Season Recap

Arkansas is ranked for the 5th consecutive week. The longest such streak since the Hogs left the polls in early 2012. Sad, but true (not surprising). So far this season Arkansas' defense has gone up against nationas #4, #8, #9, #17 and #29 ranked offenses (whose stats are boosted by playing Arkansas). Arkansas is 3-2 in those games and now gets read to face the nations #28 offense. It's a bit of a break considering the offenses that have historically given the Hog defense fits are those with mobile QB's who are a legit threat to run (or snowboard)


Critical Match-ups

The SEC's 2nd best QB Austin Allen and the super talented Arkansas WR's against Auburn's secondary. Most people may think the critical match up is in the trenches with Arkansas OL against Auburn DL (it is), that is not the case (nope, still is). Auburn gives up nearly 200 yards per game through the air (#30) If Allen and the WRs can find their stride, they're hard to stop. Enos has shown the ability to sperad the field recently and let the kid fling it. Look for Allen to continue to have a big day with his wide array of choices at WR/TE


Players to Watch
Austin Allen and Rawleigh Williams. Austin leads the SEC in passing yards, (not completion percentage) and passing touchdowns. He is also a threat to tuck it and run to pick up the first down (-49 yards on the year). He is as tough as nails and laughs in the face of adversity (like losing by 20 to Bama/TAMU). Allen leads the 3rd ranked offense in the league into a stadium where Arkansas has had moderate success recently. Williams leads the SEC in rushing yards due to an extra game after lighting up Ole Miss for 180 yards a week ago. Williams is just 215 yards shy of hitting the 1000 yard mark.

Why Arkansas Will Win

Arkansas is road tested with a great win @TCU, the team that beat Kansas by 1 point. The key to winning on the road in the SEC is to have a calm and solid QB + a go to RB who will get yards in key situations. Arkansas arguably has both of those and they also have a very underrated defensive line, who we believe can stop the run despite evidence to the contrary. Arkansas is 5th in the league in sacks and will try to pressure White most of the night. Arkansas will rotate 10 guys in and out in the front 4 to keep fresh bodies in. There is no talent drop off with any of them, they all are average to above average, so look for White to be hassled all evening. Arkansas is also 3rd in the league in interceptions. This could be problematic for Auburn if White, who is not interception prone, has to scramble and make tough decisions. Arkansas has returned 3 of those picks for TDs this season. Arkansas is also 3rd in the league in forced fumbles. Arkansas has recovered 7 fumbles this season, All of those are keys to winning on the road.



Paraphrase Version We don't have actual good reasons to think Arkansas so will win, we just are homer and pro Arkansas



Akrnass Perspective Auburn cannot get it going early on the offensive side of the ball and has a turnover that leads to an Arkansas TD. Auburn scores late, but Arkansas wins 31-21 and moves to 6-2





Committee Says

Auburn Tigers 29

Arkansas 30


Prediction

Auburn Perspective- Despite some clever game planning by Bret Bielema, Auburn just outclasses Arkansas to win by double digits

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and top 10 defense

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The SEC has two top 10 defenses and Auburn isn't one of them.

Florida and Alabama are in fact, top 10 defenses.

SEC Total Defense Ranking

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Georgia
5. Auburn(30th)
6. State

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With Auburn marching out of the SEC's highest rating passer, #2 rushing attack and top 10 defense, it is hard to see an Arkansas team who struggled to win by 1 over the fearsome LaTech keeping step on the road. Auburn at home will win by double digits against the Hogs.

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Sorry, but it is clearly being stated as statistics from the season, not some computer generated ranking.

Auburn as the 30th ranked defense in the country, not top 10.

Auburn also does not have the leagues #2 rushing offense.

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Auburn as the 30th ranked defense in the country, not top 10.

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auburn is #10 in scoring defense

soooooooooooooooooooooooooo

this is awkward