Odds update for this weekend

quote:

---

Mississippi State -1.5 over A&M

---

Call me crazy, but I just don't see this one. I was much more worried about Arkansas. They had something to prove. MSU is on top of the world right now. Time to knock them off.

quote:

---

Alabama -6.5 over Ole Miss

---

The healthier Blake Sims seemingly becomes, the higher this line is going to go.

AU by 11

Twice as many TDs, half as many FGs.

quote:

---

AU by 11

---

My current prediction is AU by 10 (45-35), but you can still GFYS.

quote:

---

Why is the Alabama line moving so much? Someone who actually knows line movement explain. Because I've heard, "Oh the smart money goes on first, that's how they set the line." and "Oh if it keeps moving one way it must mean the line was wrong". All the way to, "the team that's getting the majority of the bets is destined not to cover".

---

$1 million moves the line a half a point.

So, Alabama opened at -4, that means that about $5 million more has gone to Alabama than to Ole Miss. Vegas tries to get it as even as possible. Remember. Vegas takes a ~10% cut. If they get $10 million on both sides, they make $2 million no matter who wins.

Inevitably, Vegas misses a line and I think they did here. 7.5 would have been a tough line to go heavy either way. Let's say this - if Vegas is involved in the outcome of games, then Ole Miss will win this one and Vegas will take a big payday.

Vegas knows what they are doing, but they miss a line every once in a while. If Bama wins by a TD or more, which is quite possible, they could lose $12 million on one game. But if Ole Miss covers, they could make $17 million.

AU already dropped from -9 to -9.5 to -8?

quote:

---

When I used to bet really big, I could move an mlb line 5 or 10 percentage points

---

frick, how much were you betting a game?

quote:
Mississippi State -1.5 over A&M


Easy money, Aggies are clearly the underdog. Should lose by 14

Go cowbells!!! Clang clang clang

lol