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NCAA Tourney Bubble - What Really Matters
Posted on 5/14/15 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 5/14/15 at 12:59 pm
BA put out a quality article on what the committee really looks at to make a regional. Should be especially relevant to Mizzou, Alabama. Auburn, and Kentucky.
LINK
LINK
quote:
Summing Up
If you’ve survived reading all that, or you’ve just skipped to here, we’ll summarize what we found in bullet-point form and what you should look to when assessing your team’s chances on Selection Monday.
• The Top 45 RPI benchmark is more useful for mid-majors. Power-conference teams should aim higher.
• Besides RPI, conference record was the biggest determinant in whether teams got in. A quality conference record can compensate for a mediocre RPI.
• Mid-majors are given more leeway in the RPI but need to dominate their conferences. They need to finish first or second and win roughly two-thirds of their league games or more.
• Strength of Schedule, while it shouldn’t be ignored, is a poor indicator of which teams get in. You have to win.
• Being good on the road is a big plus, and not just because it helps you in the RPI formula. Winning road games makes a strong impression on the committee.
• Being extremely good (or bad) against the Top 50 and Top 100 helps (or hurts), but if you’re in the middle, you’ll need the other factors going for you.
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Posted on 5/14/15 at 1:04 pm to Farmer1906
So to sum up:
-win games
-have a good RPI
-road games help
-top 50 wins good, sub 100 losses bad
Makes sense!
-win games
-have a good RPI
-road games help
-top 50 wins good, sub 100 losses bad
Makes sense!
Posted on 5/14/15 at 1:26 pm to Farmer1906
The fact they treat mid majors so much differently is kinda dumb.
Basically telling them it's ok if SOS is terrible as long as you beat a bunch of nobodies we'll sill lt you in
P.S. If you're in the toughest conference and played one of the toughest schedules we don't care about you because you're 31-28, 13-17 league but congrat on 9 Top 50 wins. (Meanwhile they take a midmajor who is 40-19, 21-9 league who has maybe 1 or 2 Top 50 wins).
Basically telling them it's ok if SOS is terrible as long as you beat a bunch of nobodies we'll sill lt you in
P.S. If you're in the toughest conference and played one of the toughest schedules we don't care about you because you're 31-28, 13-17 league but congrat on 9 Top 50 wins. (Meanwhile they take a midmajor who is 40-19, 21-9 league who has maybe 1 or 2 Top 50 wins).
Posted on 5/14/15 at 1:46 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Of the eight teams that were selected for the field and had an RPI of 50 or worse, seven of them were non-P4s—2013 Oklahoma State (No. 52) was the lone exception.
Aubrun - 24
Ole Miss - 28
------------------AVG IN (36.7)
Arkansas - 43
Alabama - 47
Mizzou - 51
------------------Highest Ever (52)
Kentucky - 56
South Carolina - 57
quote:
We found 11 teams with SOS inside the top 20 and eight of them received bids. But once you get outside that cream of the SOS crop, there’s little correlation with getting into the tournament.
Ole Miss - 1
Auburn - 3
Alabama - 5
Missouri - 7
--------------- No correlation below this point (20)
Kentucky - 26
Arkansas - 29
--------------- AVG IN(36.7)
South Carolina - 38
quote:
NCAA’s data we used here counts conference tournament games as part of a team’s conference record, so some teams showed up as having played greater than 30 conference games.
Conference performance particularly had a heavy bearing on the P4s. The 35 P4 bubble teams had an average conference winning percentage of .455 (14.0 wins and 16.8 losses)
The worst conference winning percentage to get a bid was 2011 Alabama, which went 15-20 (.429) in the SEC.
There were 13 P4s that finished in sixth place or better, and just two didn’t receive bids:
Arkansas .577 / 5th
Mizzou .519 / t6th
Ole Miss .519 / t6th
---------------------AVG (.489 / 6.1)
Kentucky .462 / 7th
South Carolina .444 / t8th
Auburn .444 / t8th
---------------------Lowest ever gotten in (9th)
Alabama .407 / 10th
quote:
The six P4s who had winning road records all made the tournament, but a total of 13 (out of 28) P4s with losing road records also got in. Just don’t be helpless on the road,
Mizzou 16-12 .571
Arkansas 10-8 .556
Kentucky 13-12 .520
Alabama 11-11 .500
Auburn 8-9 .471
--------------------AVG IN (.469)
Ole Miss 11-14 .440
South Carolina 7-13 .350
This post was edited on 5/14/15 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 5/14/15 at 1:50 pm to Farmer1906
Nothing earth shattering , but basically Ole Miss & Arkansas are in. We pretty much knew that assuming something crazy. Auburn should get in too as long as they don't shite the bed this weekend. Mizzou has work. South Carolina has more work. I don't think UK and Bama are getting in.
Posted on 5/14/15 at 2:04 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Auburn WOULD HAVE gotten in too as long WE HAD NOT shite the bed LAST weekend.
Posted on 5/15/15 at 8:35 am to Farmer1906
A few updates after last night. Obviously USCe helped theirself the most. 1 more win should get them to 49-50 in the RPI. 2 will get them under 48.
That basicaly means Auburn should be removed form here because they're locked up. Alabama should be too. They have no chance of making it without winning the tourney.
That basically leaves Ark & Ole Miss (in) and Mizzou & Kentucky (out) for now.
RPI
Aubrun - 20
Ole Miss - 30
------------------AVG IN (36.7)
Arkansas - 47
South Carolina - 51
------------------Highest Ever (52)
Alabama - 52
Mizzou - 55
Kentucky - 56
SOS
Ole Miss - 1
Auburn - 3
Alabama - 5
Missouri - 6
--------------- No correlation below this point (20)
Kentucky - 27
Arkansas - 30
South Carolina - 32
--------------- AVG IN(36.7)
Win% / Conf Place
Arkansas .556 / 5th
Mizzou .500 / t6th
Ole Miss .500 / t6th
---------------------AVG (.489 / 6.1)
Kentucky .481 / 7th
South Carolina .464 / t8th
Auburn .464 / t8th
---------------------Lowest ever gotten in (9th)
Alabama .393 / 10th
quote:
The lowest RPI team to get left out of the field was 2012 Maryland (No. 30), and just three other (out of 15) teams with RPIs inside the top 35 were left out—more on them later.
That basicaly means Auburn should be removed form here because they're locked up. Alabama should be too. They have no chance of making it without winning the tourney.
That basically leaves Ark & Ole Miss (in) and Mizzou & Kentucky (out) for now.
RPI
Aubrun - 20
Ole Miss - 30
------------------AVG IN (36.7)
Arkansas - 47
South Carolina - 51
------------------Highest Ever (52)
Alabama - 52
Mizzou - 55
Kentucky - 56
SOS
Ole Miss - 1
Auburn - 3
Alabama - 5
Missouri - 6
--------------- No correlation below this point (20)
Kentucky - 27
Arkansas - 30
South Carolina - 32
--------------- AVG IN(36.7)
Win% / Conf Place
Arkansas .556 / 5th
Mizzou .500 / t6th
Ole Miss .500 / t6th
---------------------AVG (.489 / 6.1)
Kentucky .481 / 7th
South Carolina .464 / t8th
Auburn .464 / t8th
---------------------Lowest ever gotten in (9th)
Alabama .393 / 10th
Posted on 5/15/15 at 9:18 am to Farmer1906
I imagine that just like with polls in all sports, "what have you done for me lately" matters a lot as well, which will hopefully help us if we can pull off a series win this weekend.
Posted on 5/15/15 at 9:36 am to Farmer1906
We could very well lose the next 2 at Florida and lose the opening round game in Hoover and not make the tournament. Let's not count Auburn's chickens before the eggs hatch.
Posted on 5/15/15 at 9:46 am to Rig
quote:
We could very well lose the next 2 at Florida and lose the opening round game in Hoover and not make the tournament. Let's not count Auburn's chickens before the eggs hatch.
If that were to happen, you may make history as the highest RPI to miss the tourney.
Posted on 5/15/15 at 10:16 am to Farmer1906
Which wouldn't surprise me at all. We might have the highest RPI to not make it but we would also have a lower conference winning percentage than that 15-20 Alabama team if you count the loss in the SEC Tournament. 13-18 won't get Auburn a bid despite the RPI I don't believe
Posted on 5/15/15 at 10:32 am to Rig
quote:
13-18 won't get Auburn a bid despite the RPI I don't believe
For comparision Maryland was 10-20 the year they got left out with an RPI of 32. LSU was 13-17 the year they got left our with an RPI of 28. (I guess the article missed them)
Posted on 5/15/15 at 10:36 am to Farmer1906
quote:Perfect comparison right there
LSU was 13-17 the year they got left our with an RPI of 28.
Posted on 5/15/15 at 1:23 pm to allin2010
Auburn doesn't really deserve it in my opinion. I've watched the team all year and it's clear to see that we have no business "competing" for a championship this year. Wish I didn't have to say that, but it is what it is.
Posted on 5/15/15 at 1:24 pm to Farmer1906
I feel like it took BA 5 minutes to copy and paste that
Posted on 5/15/15 at 1:31 pm to tigerbait2010
quote:
I feel like it took BA 5 minutes to copy and paste that
From? That a lot of good info backed up by actual #s.
Posted on 5/15/15 at 1:41 pm to Mister Tee
quote:Well if you're dealing in facts its also fair to note that when Thompson is healthy that the 1-2 punch of him and Lipscomb is good enough to compete with anyone. Pitching wins regionals and Auburn has two guys that can mow people down
Auburn doesn't really deserve it in my opinion. I've watched the team all year and it's clear to see that we have no business "competing" for a championship this year. Wish I didn't have to say that, but it is what it is.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 9:02 am to Farmer1906
RPI
Aubrun - 23
Ole Miss - 24
------------------AVG IN (36.7)
Arkansas - 38
Alabama - 50
------------------Highest Ever (52)
Kentucky - 56
Mizzou - 57
South Carolina - 60
SOS
Ole Miss - 1
Auburn - 2
Alabama - 4
Missouri - 5
South Carolina - 20
--------------- No correlation below this point (20)
Kentucky - 28
Arkansas - 33
--------------- AVG IN(36.7)
Win% / Conf Place
Arkansas .586 / 5th
Ole Miss .517 / 6th
---------------------AVG (.489 / 6.1)
Mizzou .500 / 7th
Kentucky .483 / 8th
Auburn .433 / t9th
South Carolina .433 / t9th
---------------------Lowest ever gotten in (9th)
Alabama .400 / 11th
vs top 50 (Wins)
Auburn 12
---------------------------- Avg (11.2)
Ole Miss 11
Arkansas 10
South Carolina 8
Alabama 8
Kentucky 7
Missouri 7
vs top 100 (wins)
Auburn 19
Arkansas 18
Ole Miss 17
Alabama 16
South Carolina 16
---------------------------- Avg (15.4)
Missouri 15
Kentucky 14
Its getting more clear. Arkansas and Ole Miss are easy 2 seeds. Alabama, Kentucky, Mizzou, and South Carolina are out. Who the hell knows about Auburn. Everything looks great minus finishing 9th in conference with 13-17 record.
Aubrun - 23
Ole Miss - 24
------------------AVG IN (36.7)
Arkansas - 38
Alabama - 50
------------------Highest Ever (52)
Kentucky - 56
Mizzou - 57
South Carolina - 60
SOS
Ole Miss - 1
Auburn - 2
Alabama - 4
Missouri - 5
South Carolina - 20
--------------- No correlation below this point (20)
Kentucky - 28
Arkansas - 33
--------------- AVG IN(36.7)
Win% / Conf Place
Arkansas .586 / 5th
Ole Miss .517 / 6th
---------------------AVG (.489 / 6.1)
Mizzou .500 / 7th
Kentucky .483 / 8th
Auburn .433 / t9th
South Carolina .433 / t9th
---------------------Lowest ever gotten in (9th)
Alabama .400 / 11th
vs top 50 (Wins)
Auburn 12
---------------------------- Avg (11.2)
Ole Miss 11
Arkansas 10
South Carolina 8
Alabama 8
Kentucky 7
Missouri 7
vs top 100 (wins)
Auburn 19
Arkansas 18
Ole Miss 17
Alabama 16
South Carolina 16
---------------------------- Avg (15.4)
Missouri 15
Kentucky 14
Its getting more clear. Arkansas and Ole Miss are easy 2 seeds. Alabama, Kentucky, Mizzou, and South Carolina are out. Who the hell knows about Auburn. Everything looks great minus finishing 9th in conference with 13-17 record.
Posted on 5/21/15 at 8:38 am to Farmer1906
RPI
Aubrun - 22
Ole Miss - 26
Arkansas - 29
------------------AVG IN (36.7)
Alabama - 45
------------------Highest Ever (52)
Mizzou - 54
Kentucky - 56
South Carolina - 61
SOS
Ole Miss - 1
Auburn - 2
Missouri - 3
Alabama - 4
--------------- No correlation below this point (20)
South Carolina - 29
Arkansas - 30
Kentucky - 34
--------------- AVG IN(36.7)
Win% / Conf Place
Arkansas .613 / t4th
Ole Miss .500 / t6th
Mizzou .500 / t6th
---------------------AVG (.489 / 6.1)
Kentucky .467 / 8th
Auburn .438 / 9th
---------------------Lowest ever gotten in (9th)
South Carolina .419 / 10th
Alabama .406 / 11th
vs top 50 (Wins)
Auburn 12
---------------------------- Avg (11.2)
Ole Miss 11
Arkansas 11
Alabama 9
South Carolina 8
Kentucky 7
Missouri 7
vs top 100 (wins)
Auburn 20
Arkansas 20
Ole Miss 17
Alabama 17
South Carolina 16
Missouri 16
---------------------------- Avg (15.4)
Kentucky 13
Updated the list with the first 2 rounds of conference play. Auburn is now alone in 9th place (lowest anyone has ever made it before). Arkansas is left the bubble behind. They are now tied with UF in SEC record. Mizzou could have done so much yesterday to help their cause if they just held on. The could have been alone in 6th, moved into the top 50 RPI (or very very close to it), and moved closer to the # of wins needed(on avg) vs the top 50. The SOS has just gotten ridiculous.
Aubrun - 22
Ole Miss - 26
Arkansas - 29
------------------AVG IN (36.7)
Alabama - 45
------------------Highest Ever (52)
Mizzou - 54
Kentucky - 56
South Carolina - 61
SOS
Ole Miss - 1
Auburn - 2
Missouri - 3
Alabama - 4
--------------- No correlation below this point (20)
South Carolina - 29
Arkansas - 30
Kentucky - 34
--------------- AVG IN(36.7)
Win% / Conf Place
Arkansas .613 / t4th
Ole Miss .500 / t6th
Mizzou .500 / t6th
---------------------AVG (.489 / 6.1)
Kentucky .467 / 8th
Auburn .438 / 9th
---------------------Lowest ever gotten in (9th)
South Carolina .419 / 10th
Alabama .406 / 11th
vs top 50 (Wins)
Auburn 12
---------------------------- Avg (11.2)
Ole Miss 11
Arkansas 11
Alabama 9
South Carolina 8
Kentucky 7
Missouri 7
vs top 100 (wins)
Auburn 20
Arkansas 20
Ole Miss 17
Alabama 17
South Carolina 16
Missouri 16
---------------------------- Avg (15.4)
Kentucky 13
Updated the list with the first 2 rounds of conference play. Auburn is now alone in 9th place (lowest anyone has ever made it before). Arkansas is left the bubble behind. They are now tied with UF in SEC record. Mizzou could have done so much yesterday to help their cause if they just held on. The could have been alone in 6th, moved into the top 50 RPI (or very very close to it), and moved closer to the # of wins needed(on avg) vs the top 50. The SOS has just gotten ridiculous.
Posted on 5/21/15 at 9:04 am to Farmer1906
Going into Hoover my bet was UK was in but after that Auburn game I think they are out. While I like all your data, a last season win or loss can have the most effect. Also, as you are new to the SEC just remember the NCAA will always short at least 1 SEC team from the NCAA's and add at least 1 undeserving ACC team instead. In addition, with the advent of the BTN the B1G will get at least 1 slot (deserving or not) to host which will broadcast on the BTN.
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