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My assessment for the Florida-LSU top 10 matchup

Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:21 pm
Posted by Tigerbait8
Biloxi
Member since Aug 2012
1991 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:21 pm
I've had a little time during my day off to do a some research on Florida's game film and comparing their strengths and weaknesses to LSU. This may be a TL/DR, but I think both fan bases will appreciate the non homerism.

First off I'm going to compare the LSU Offense to the Florida defense. We all know about LF7 and how difficult of a task it will be to stop him, even with a 8-9 man front in the box. But this game is going to come down to the battle in the trenches. I think Florida has a strong front line, and LSU's O-line does a great job of creating holes for the backs. I have a lot of confidence in Brandon Harris's ability to throw the ball and to take care of it as well. I really think early on LSU is going to run the ball A LOT. They will try to wear down that front 7-9 from Florida with some ground attack, and will not have great success at first, maybe 1 or 2 big plays. Tabor and VH3 are excellent in the secondary for Florida. They will be tough to pass on. However, I do think that LSU will use a lot more 3 receiver sets which will be more complicated for Florida to defend the run with the free safety moving out of the box to go over top. This could play a strength for LSU running the ball with LSU's fullback JD Moore out with an injury. I can certainly see Fournette, guice, and Williams accumulating anywhere from 220-260 yards rushing, which would be impressive for Florida to contain them to considering LSU rushes for close to 375 ypg.

Now on to Florida's offense vs LSU's defense. It's very obvious that Florida's offensive game plan will be a little different with Treon Harris starting at QB now. They will run more zone-reads, and try to get TH3 out of the pocket on some roll outs or designed runs. It's also obvious that Harris is no world beater, but he can be a threat for this defense considering he is a dual threat. Kelvin Taylor and Company have been productive as well this season which can help take some pressure off of the QB. LSU's D-line is pretty good with godchaux in the middle and key and Lewis on the ends, and it helps the Tigers that bower will be back this week. I believe LSU will play contain again vs. a dual threat QB such as they have done in the past against, dak this year and Johnny in years past; they are going to challenge Harris to beat them through the air. If Florida tries to beat them on the ground, LSU only allows 90 ypg, and may not be extremely successful running up the middle with beckwith and debo holding that down, but if they can be productive through the air, such as Marshall from auby was last year, they will be in good position to keep a balanced offense and to win the game. Jalen mills will possibly return this week for LSU, so that could be huge for the Tigers defensively defending the pass.

Special teams wise, advantage Florida, and this could be huge for them to take control of field position. LSU has allowed several big returns this year, and this has made it extremely tough for their defense to prevent opponents from threatening to score due to great field position.

Now on to advantages.

QB: Even
RB: Fournette, Guice, and Williams is a mighty tall task to slow down. Advantage LSU.
WR: the Tigers have a lot more talent, but have been inconsistent, and Florida's receivers have done a great job with less talent. Toss up.
TE: LSU struggles to use the tightends consistently in their passing game. Advantage Florida.
O-line: LSU has a massive front line and obviously they have helped Fournette and company with their success. Advantage LSU.
D-line: Florida has done a good job of creating pressure on opponents qb's this year, and LSU has been meh compared to what they have been in the past. They are still no slouch with great young talent. I'll give Florida the advantage.
LB: Kendall Beckwith is one of the best MLB's in the country, and has been huge for the Tigers' success on the defensive side of the ball. Debo jones, Louis, and Riley have been impressive so far as well. Advantage LSU.
Secondary: Florida and LSU without a doubt have the two best secondaries in all of CFB. Both have all American caliber players, and both with have many first round picks. I think it comes down to if mills will be back for this game to complete and nickel and dime packages. If he will be, then the matchup will be even, if not, I'd give Florida the edge barely.

Stat Predictions:

Not a big fan of guessing the pass attempts and completions for the QB's and receivers but i will give an estimate.

QB:

Brandon Harris: 55-65% 160 1 TD 1 int

Treon Harris: 45-60% 145 1 TD rushing

RB:

Leonard Fournette: 24 carries 180 yards 2 TDs

Derrius Guice: 10 carries 51 yards

D. Williams: 8 carries 32 yards

Brandon Harris: 9 carries 25 yards

Florida:

Kelvin Taylor: 19 rushes 73 yards 1 TD

Treon Harris: 9 rushes for 42 yards 1 TD

Jordan Cronkrite: 4 rushes 12 yards

Special teams: Florida will return a kickoff for a TD I can almost guarantee it, it happens every year.

Hope you guys thought I gave a fair assessment or took the time to read it. Please share your thoughts on what you think.

I'm gonna keep my homerism with my Tigers for my overall score prediction. I think LSU will win 27-21 in a great matchup in a night game showdown in Death Valley.

Edit: had to fix spelling
This post was edited on 10/13/15 at 3:33 pm
Posted by Korin
Member since Jan 2014
37935 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:22 pm to
Posted by idlewatcher
County Jail
Member since Jan 2012
78816 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

Florida:

Kelvin Taylor: 19 rushes 73 yards 1 TD

Treon Harris: 9 rushes for 42 yards 1 TD

Jordan Cronkrite: 4 rushes 12 yards


Rushing powerhouse!
Posted by geauxnavybeatbama
Member since Jul 2013
25134 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:23 pm to
Nice post, but all this was unnecessary. LSU only has fournette and can't pass. Wish we had other backs to help fournette out.
Posted by LSUNV
In the woods or on the water
Member since Feb 2011
22422 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:24 pm to
Pretty good
Posted by Pavoloco83
Acworth Ga. too many damn dawgs
Member since Nov 2013
15347 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:25 pm to
So if LSU has only LF7, what happens to LSU if (God forbid) Fournette gets an injury like Nick Chubb? Is LSU Fuct?
Posted by edukated_fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2014
135 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:26 pm to
just wondering why you didn't list any of Brandon Harris' touchdowns? He has 4 passing and 3 rushing, and you mentioned rushing tds for Treon Harris and all of LSU's running backs.

Edit: I'm an idiot and didn't realize those were predictions.
This post was edited on 10/13/15 at 3:28 pm
Posted by Rayburn8
Member since Jun 2014
1715 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:27 pm to
I will say good job on keeping it fair and even.
Posted by texag7
College Station
Member since Apr 2014
37436 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:28 pm to
No way Brandon throws for 160 yards.
Posted by geauxnavybeatbama
Member since Jul 2013
25134 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:30 pm to
Yea. They pretty much have to close up shop.
Posted by LSUdude247
Member since Oct 2014
7009 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:31 pm to
If anything happens, we have Guice, Williams, and Brossette
Hopefully he doesn't get hurt, he's having a magical season
Posted by EthanL
Auburn,AL
Member since Oct 2011
6963 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:32 pm to
Going back to 2002, the stats show that if UF holds LSU to under 100 yards rushing, they win. I just don't see that happening this year.

Les has one 4 out of the last 5. The game UF won, in Gainsville, was all specials teams. This will also be a factor, as LSU appears horrendous on special teams.

20-13 LSU....LF7 gets a buck fifty.
Posted by superstroke33
Member since Oct 2015
735 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:33 pm to
Pretty fair assessment

Of course, it never plays out like we think
Posted by Brosef Stalin17
Member since Sep 2014
1090 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:34 pm to
quote:

, what happens to LSU if (God forbid) Fournette gets an injury like Nick Chubb?

suspend the season and play the games next spring or summer proly
Posted by Tigerbait8
Biloxi
Member since Aug 2012
1991 posts
Posted on 10/13/15 at 3:36 pm to
The kid isn't quite where he will be by the end of his career, but he is improving. He is throwing most of his balls in a place that allows his receivers to have a chance to catch it. It just comes down to whether his receivers can catch it or not.
Posted by Pavoloco83
Acworth Ga. too many damn dawgs
Member since Nov 2013
15347 posts
Posted on 10/14/15 at 7:17 am to
quote:

suspend the season and play the games next spring or summer proly


Thats what Im thinking too. Yall would be hard fricked this fall, so yeah.
Posted by austingator
austin
Member since Jan 2009
7442 posts
Posted on 10/14/15 at 7:55 am to
quote:

Going back to 2002, the stats show that if UF holds LSU to under 100 yards rushing, they win.


Ask 11ennesse how that stat helped them beat the Gators this year.

LF7 will get 150 yds and a couple of TDs, but this will be a close competitive game. Turnovers will be a key.

Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/14/15 at 7:59 am to
Good assessment, though honestly with our pass rush and secondary I don't see Harris getting 100 yards. I think you guys will just pound the ball and play defense and beat us around 17-13 honestly. Should be a boring game to be honest hah. Lot of three and outs for Florida. With Grier I was pretty confident we could exploit a few issues you've had especially with our TE's. I'm not like other Gator fans, I don't have faith in Harris. I think he has happy feet, doesn't read the field well, and plays it far to safe.
Posted by Solo Cam
Member since Sep 2015
32595 posts
Posted on 10/14/15 at 8:00 am to
quote:

texag7
like clockwork. Do you angry jack off to LSU?
Posted by austingator
austin
Member since Jan 2009
7442 posts
Posted on 10/14/15 at 8:02 am to
I think Treon is a gamer. It might not be pretty, but he has shown he can make things happen. The kid has 2 HS championships, he knows how to win. And he has started for our team, and his teamates trust him. He is different than Grier, but I don't see why he cannot be effective with Mac's game plan suited for him.
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