Started By
Message
LSU/Florida - Early Week Discussion (Stats Review)
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:08 am
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:08 am
LSU - 24th ranked team in Total Offense @ 468.4/ypg
UF - 84th ranked team in Total Offense @ 384.7/ypg
LSU - 14th ranked team in Total Defense @ 291.4
UF - 16th ranked team in Total Defense @ 296.3
Florida as I understand it (and Gator Fans please correct me here as I freely admit that you're a much better expert on your team than I am) sort've lives and dies by the big play on offense. It seems to be reinforced when you look at your Total Offense numbers, which I thought would be a somewhat higher.
We're both within a yard of each other in rushing defense, but I think Florida folks would readily admit that we're by far the best rushing attack you've faced so far this year.
LSU ranks behind only Baylor & Georgia Southern (I know that second one probably makes you cringe, Gators) in total rushing offense this year at 346.7 yards per game. The two best teams you've faced rushing headed into Baton Rouge this weekend are Tennessee at 222/ypg (21st ranked rushing offense) and Ole Miss at 188/ypg (50th ranked rushing offense).
For LSU, MSU was the best offense we faced (50th) this year, and on the ground, both the Gamecocks (70th) and Eastern Michigan (74th) were more potent on the ground than the Gators (100th ranked rushing offense).
Throug the air, I'm fairly certain you're not worried about us, and I don't blame you. I'll concede the stats if you'll concede I don't expect us to do much but try to move the chains a few times on 3rd down against your Secondary.
For LSU, MSU was the best passing offense we've faced (ranked 28th in America in total passing offense) with you being next at 47th overall.
Seems like it should be an interesting matchup. Last year LF7 had his breakout game on the road in the Swamp, rushing for 140+ and really being the catalyst for our offense. Somehow, while improving talent in the passing game at each position, LF7 is even moreso the catalyst now.
One thing's for certain...LSU won't mind-and has thrived-on being one dimensional as long as that dimension has been the running attack. I'm interested to see if Mac and Nuss let Grier try to fly the friendly skies on the road in primetime at night in Death Valley. It would seem like they want balance, but LSU has been stout against the run. If we can force Grier through the air, our Secondary has been ball-hawking recently.
Here's hoping for a healthy, injury-free game where nothing impacts the outcome other than the play of the kid's on the field!
UF - 84th ranked team in Total Offense @ 384.7/ypg
LSU - 14th ranked team in Total Defense @ 291.4
UF - 16th ranked team in Total Defense @ 296.3
Florida as I understand it (and Gator Fans please correct me here as I freely admit that you're a much better expert on your team than I am) sort've lives and dies by the big play on offense. It seems to be reinforced when you look at your Total Offense numbers, which I thought would be a somewhat higher.
We're both within a yard of each other in rushing defense, but I think Florida folks would readily admit that we're by far the best rushing attack you've faced so far this year.
LSU ranks behind only Baylor & Georgia Southern (I know that second one probably makes you cringe, Gators) in total rushing offense this year at 346.7 yards per game. The two best teams you've faced rushing headed into Baton Rouge this weekend are Tennessee at 222/ypg (21st ranked rushing offense) and Ole Miss at 188/ypg (50th ranked rushing offense).
For LSU, MSU was the best offense we faced (50th) this year, and on the ground, both the Gamecocks (70th) and Eastern Michigan (74th) were more potent on the ground than the Gators (100th ranked rushing offense).
Throug the air, I'm fairly certain you're not worried about us, and I don't blame you. I'll concede the stats if you'll concede I don't expect us to do much but try to move the chains a few times on 3rd down against your Secondary.
For LSU, MSU was the best passing offense we've faced (ranked 28th in America in total passing offense) with you being next at 47th overall.
Seems like it should be an interesting matchup. Last year LF7 had his breakout game on the road in the Swamp, rushing for 140+ and really being the catalyst for our offense. Somehow, while improving talent in the passing game at each position, LF7 is even moreso the catalyst now.
One thing's for certain...LSU won't mind-and has thrived-on being one dimensional as long as that dimension has been the running attack. I'm interested to see if Mac and Nuss let Grier try to fly the friendly skies on the road in primetime at night in Death Valley. It would seem like they want balance, but LSU has been stout against the run. If we can force Grier through the air, our Secondary has been ball-hawking recently.
Here's hoping for a healthy, injury-free game where nothing impacts the outcome other than the play of the kid's on the field!
14
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:19 am to GFunk
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:25 am to GFunk
I'd say that lack of the big play has been our Achilles heel on offense. Seems like we're always having to drive the length of the field. We'll either put together a nice drive or go 3 & out.
LSU OL vs. UF DL is the best match up of the game IMO. Best run blocking OL vs. most disruptive DL. Going to be a good one.
LSU OL vs. UF DL is the best match up of the game IMO. Best run blocking OL vs. most disruptive DL. Going to be a good one.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:25 am to GFunk
Expecting a good game and a great atmosphere.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:27 am to GFunk
quote:
Florida as I understand it (and Gator Fans please correct me here as I freely admit that you're a much better expert on your team than I am) sort've lives and dies by the big play on offense. It seems to be reinforced when you look at your Total Offense numbers, which I thought would be a somewhat higher.
This is incorrect. I would say that LSU is the one who lives through the big play from LF7. We run a good mix of small and big plays on offense.
Yes, yours is the best rushing attack we are going to face all year.
You do have a good secondary, but I expect we are going to be the best passing team you have seen all year (really surprising to say this at this point btw).
Yes you are the worse team in passing that we are going to face this year, probably wose than MO with Locke.
I think this is a very interesting game. Will stacking the box work against y'all? I think if we limit LF7 to less than 120 we are going to be all right. How are we going to attack your D is what is truly interesting to me. How is our OL going to hold up.
I don't know what to expect from this game.
quote:
Here's hoping for a healthy, injury-free game where nothing impacts the outcome other than the play of the kid's on the field!
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:32 am to CJM
quote:
CJM
quote:
I'd say that lack of the big play has been our Achilles heel on offense. Seems like we're always having to drive the length of the field. We'll either put together a nice drive or go 3 & out.
LSU OL vs. UF DL is the best match up of the game IMO. Best run blocking OL vs. most disruptive DL. Going to be a good one.
Disruptive vs. the Pass? Perhaps. The problem as I see it for Florida is that LSU isn't going to do a whole heckuva lot of passing.
Let's look at your game vs. Tennessee. The reason? It's the best rushing offense you've gone up against this year. So let's talk a look at the key offensive stat lines for the Vols in this game.
Passing:
Josh Dobbs - 10/17 for 83 yards (LSU Fans will say this sounds INCREDIBLY familiar to Brandon Harris' normal stat line)
Rushing:
Josh Dobbs - 18 carries for 136 (7.6ypc)
Jalen Hurd - 28 carries for 102 (3.6ypc)
Tennessee - 51 rushes for 254 yards (5.0ypc)
I see some potential issues for Florida in defending the run based on what we saw vs. Tennessee. Dobbs is a dynamic playmaker for Tennessee, but the combination of him and Hurd-as great as they are-pales in comparison to LSU's rushing attack.
Florida is going to have to play their best game of the year on defense to keep LSU from winning TOP...and TOP is going to wear your D down...and chunk plays happen when a defense is worn down.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:35 am to austingator
If Dobbs can be successful against you the BH will make you pay. You can expect BH to do a lot of what Dobbs did. BH is pretty damn fast
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:36 am to austingator
quote:
austingator
quote:
You do have a good secondary, but I expect we are going to be the best passing team you have seen all year (really surprising to say this at this point btw).
No. No you aren't. From my post earlier:
quote:
For LSU, MSU was the best passing offense we've faced (ranked 28th in America in total passing offense) with you being next at 47th overall.
You've also got to stop and take into consideration that we actually beat State-who has a better passing offense than you do-without any warm-up game in our back pocket like State had. We came out of the gate cold with two new starters in the Secondary at corner and safety and they didn't really do anything until their final two drives.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:37 am to GFunk
The one thing I will say about the Tennessee game is that we consistently were in position to make stops but couldn't tackle at all in that game. It was a point of emphasis before Ole Miss and since then we've looked much better. If those issues return, it will be a long night for our defense.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:39 am to GFunk
quote:
You've also got to stop and take into consideration that we actually beat State-who has a better passing offense than you do-without any warm-up game in our back pocket like State had. We came out of the gate cold with two new starters in the Secondary at corner and safety and they didn't really do anything until their final two drives.
The first two games we were still trying to figure out our QB was and splitting possessions. Don't know how much that effected the stats, but we are probably better than that would indicate.
This post was edited on 10/12/15 at 9:44 am
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:42 am to bgator85
quote:
bgator85
quote:
The one thing I will say about the Tennessee game is that we consistently were in position to make stops but couldn't tackle at all in that game. It was a point of emphasis before Ole Miss and since then we've looked much better. If those issues return, it will be a long night for our defense.
Thanks for sharing that. Stuff like that doesn't show up in boxscores or stat lines. I would respond by saying that Fournette's biggest chunk plays of the year have come at the 2nd level making linebackers and secondary players miss once he's at the 2nd level.
The other thing I'd say is that even when he doesn't make them miss, he's proven adept at leaving cleatmarks on their chest as he simply mack-trucked a lot of guys already.
The last thing I'd say-and this is worrisome for UF fans (and no trolling or smack talking is intended with this) IMO-is that Fournette has already trucked the 2nd level defenders in this Defense before...and he did it on the road with a less effective blocking scheme, overall line talent and experience.
I'm not saying this will be some Bama/UGA or Florida/Ole Miss anticlimactic shellacking. Personally I think Mac and Nuss will create issues in the Secondary for LSU. It will be a competitive game. But one that's won and lost in the trenches ultimately. By LSU...as I see us being able to possess the ball and run it down the Gator's throats.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:45 am to LSUNV
quote:
If Dobbs can be successful against you the BH will make you pay. You can expect BH to do a lot of what Dobbs did. BH is pretty damn fast
It wasn't about Dobbs' speed, it was missed tackles due to Dobbs' strength. Brandon Harris isn't nearly as big or as strong as Dobbs is.
Florida held Hurd to less than 4 yards per carry. His stats should worry LSU fans. 28 carries with only 102 yards is not much, and if Florida holds Fournette to something similar, LSU is in for a long night.
It's going to be a heck of a game. Florida's defense is the best that LSU will see this year and it's the toughest game left on the schedule for both teams in my opinion. It'll be a good one for sure. I don't know if Florida will win, but I do know that they'll be there on Saturday night
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:48 am to GFunk
Very excited about this game, I miss Florida and LSU meeting every October as undefeateds
Posted on 10/12/15 at 9:53 am to GFunk
No, they're disruptive against the run as well. Pretty sure we lead the SEC in TFL.
Unless LSU plans on running the zone read 20+ times, I wouldn't compare their rushing attack to UT's. We lost gap control with Dobbs often and it hurt us. But Hurd was fairly pedestrian in the game besides their last scoring drive.
I fully agree on your point of being able to wear our defense down. We have to win on first down often and our offense needs to establish some form of a running game. If they don't it could turn out like the 2013 game.
Unless LSU plans on running the zone read 20+ times, I wouldn't compare their rushing attack to UT's. We lost gap control with Dobbs often and it hurt us. But Hurd was fairly pedestrian in the game besides their last scoring drive.
I fully agree on your point of being able to wear our defense down. We have to win on first down often and our offense needs to establish some form of a running game. If they don't it could turn out like the 2013 game.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 10:13 am to GFunk
Special teams:
LSU ranks in the 100s in just about every single ST category other than place kicking.
Florida: I have no clue but they aren't as bad as Peveto's squad.
I expect UF to get at least 7 points on special teams this week.
LSU ranks in the 100s in just about every single ST category other than place kicking.
Florida: I have no clue but they aren't as bad as Peveto's squad.
I expect UF to get at least 7 points on special teams this week.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 10:14 am to logjamming
We have a good punter. Everything else is bad.
Posted on 10/12/15 at 10:16 am to atlgator
UF defense is the best we will face up to this point. Bama D is better so no it will not be the toughest D we face this year. Also, I think BH will shock some of you Gator fans. His stats are misleading. Our recievers have had a case of the drops. If they correct that then you will be hit from all fronts
Posted on 10/12/15 at 10:22 am to GFunk
I'm still not sure what to expect game-to-game from our offense.
It seems to me our offense is a little better than middle-of-the-pack in the SEC (Which is much better than anyone predicted). I'm still skeptical of Grier. He's played really well recently and he shows great promise... but he has some terrible habits.. he always throws off his back foot. I feel like its only a matter of time before he throws a 3 INT game.
Our defense is pretty ridiculous, but Tennessee exposed some potential weaknesses against the run (to be fair, Tennessee has made a number of teams look weak against the run). Still, that's not what you want when you are going up against fournette.
I think this game will be the first true test of our offense. Our defense is insane, but that probably won't be enough to contain fournette for 4 quarters. I don't know a whole lot about LSU's defense, but I assume they are pretty good. Our offense is good enough to get the job done, but it also scares the hell out of me putting that much pressure on Grier on the Road at LSU at night.
Our best chance to win is if Grier gets off to a quick start or if we can force some early fumbles. If LSU gets behind by a few scores and is forced to pass... our pass-rush and secondary will dominate.
This could be a really great florida team, but I think the LSU matchup is pretty scary, especially on the road.
My homer prediction is Florida wins 21-20
My gut prediction is LSU wins 31-21
It seems to me our offense is a little better than middle-of-the-pack in the SEC (Which is much better than anyone predicted). I'm still skeptical of Grier. He's played really well recently and he shows great promise... but he has some terrible habits.. he always throws off his back foot. I feel like its only a matter of time before he throws a 3 INT game.
Our defense is pretty ridiculous, but Tennessee exposed some potential weaknesses against the run (to be fair, Tennessee has made a number of teams look weak against the run). Still, that's not what you want when you are going up against fournette.
I think this game will be the first true test of our offense. Our defense is insane, but that probably won't be enough to contain fournette for 4 quarters. I don't know a whole lot about LSU's defense, but I assume they are pretty good. Our offense is good enough to get the job done, but it also scares the hell out of me putting that much pressure on Grier on the Road at LSU at night.
Our best chance to win is if Grier gets off to a quick start or if we can force some early fumbles. If LSU gets behind by a few scores and is forced to pass... our pass-rush and secondary will dominate.
This could be a really great florida team, but I think the LSU matchup is pretty scary, especially on the road.
My homer prediction is Florida wins 21-20
My gut prediction is LSU wins 31-21
Posted on 10/12/15 at 10:26 am to atlgator
quote:
Florida held Hurd to less than 4 yards per carry. His stats should worry LSU fans. 28 carries with only 102 yards is not much, and if Florida holds Fournette to something similar, LSU is in for a long night.
Comparing Hurd to Fournette is a major faux pas
ETA: not to mention our OL is on another level than UT's
Bottom line, it's gonna be a long night for your run D, I am very confident in saying that.
This post was edited on 10/12/15 at 10:31 am
Posted on 10/12/15 at 10:33 am to broeho
quote:
d really well recently and he shows great promise... but he has some terrible habits.. he always throws off his back foot. I feel like its only a matter of time before he throws a 3 INT game.
I remember thinking this a few weeks ago. Could lead to problems. But he will be one of the better Qbs in the league with some seasoning and better mechanics
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News