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re: LSU-Alabama opponents scoring defense
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:23 pm to RB10
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:23 pm to RB10
quote:
Does this somehow make them a top 30 team? I guess we should just go through and throw out the worst game for every team.
Makes sense.
See, S&P and other computerms rankings do this because it's stupid to penalize a team for destroying another team.
Alabamas offense ranks 10th in S&P, 17th in FPI and 19th in FEI. Top 5-10 in rushing, Top 30-40 in passing.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 12:24 pm
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Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:23 pm to Triple Daves
Remember that thread I made about Alabama fans freaking out?
...Yeah... All I posted were official defense rankings and they are losing their shite
Why ruin a good argument with facts though..
...Yeah... All I posted were official defense rankings and they are losing their shite
Why ruin a good argument with facts though..
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:23 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
USC is 43rd in PPG allowed at 24.0.
Without Alabama they would be at 21st in PPG at 19.3.
Missouri is 80th. Take out their worst game and they just to 36th.
quote:
See, S&P and other computerms rankings do this because it's stupid to penalize a team for destroying another team.
So, people calling Missouri's defense bad are full of shite?
Good to know.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:25 pm to RB10
quote:
Missouri is 80th. Take out their worst game and they just to 36th.
Which includes Eastern Michigan and Delaware State, which is why raw data is stupid.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:26 pm to MontyFranklyn
quote:
JSU not being able to be weighed in surely has an effect
Mkayyy...
Without Kentucky (Alabama's lowest ranked opponent), the average is #65.1... again, LSU's is #54.6
Feel better now?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:26 pm to RB10
quote:
So, people calling Missouri's defense bad are full of shite?
They are 54th in S&P. They aren't miserable but they certainly are at the bottom end of P5 defenses.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:26 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
Which includes Eastern Michigan and Delaware State, which is why raw data is stupid.
Whatever fits your narrative bro.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:27 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
They are 54th in S&P. They aren't miserable but they certainly are at the bottom end of P5 defenses.
Only people who haven't watched them play would say this. Hence the reason S&P is just as much of a joke as anything else.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:28 pm to Triple Daves
S&P has LSU as the #20 offense and Alabama as the #10 offense.
S&P has LSU as the #8 defense and Alabama as the #4 defense.
S&P has Alabama as a 4.5 pts favorite.
I think all of this sounds pretty accurate.
S&P has LSU as the #8 defense and Alabama as the #4 defense.
S&P has Alabama as a 4.5 pts favorite.
I think all of this sounds pretty accurate.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:29 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
quote:
I think it's funny how people think one game changes a teams ranking so drastically. Like they were ranked 54 and then dropped to 90 after playing Bama.
Not that drastic, but it still has a decent impact at this point in the season.
USC is ranked 43rd in scoring defense. Take the Alabama game out and they are ranked 21st in scoring defense. That's a difference of 22 spots.
Tenn is ranked 82nd in scoring defense. Take the Alabama game out and they are ranked 59th in scoring defenses. That's a difference of 23 spots.
Particularly for those teams (like the above) that have only played 7 games, one outlier still has a significant impact on ranking.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:30 pm to RB10
quote:
Only people who haven't watched them play would say this. Hence the reason S&P is just as much of a joke as anything else.
They are the 5th worst defense in the conference ahead of Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi St and Ole Miss.
Could argue a few of those maybe, but they're all pretty bad.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:31 pm to RB10
quote:
Bama's kicker better be on point.
quote:But Bama is better than LSU in both red zone offense and defense
Sure there is, and it's kind of a big one.
Alabama isn't great and converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns (62%). LSU is very good at keep opponents out of the endzone once they get inside the two (30%).
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:31 pm to RB10
quote:
Whatever fits your narrative bro.
I've been pretty clear throughout the ages that P5 results are all that should matter. 1AA and Sun Belt stats only matter in terms of how much the elite team coach wants to give his starters and how well the backups play. It's useless information.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:33 pm to bamasgot13
quote:
You scored below the average allowed against the three best defenses you played and above the average against the three worst defenses you played.
You're missing the point my man. We know our offense was not right under Miles. Due to a plethora of reasons, we believe it to be, if not fixed, certainly, and significantly, improved.
Scoring above the normal average given up by the opponent under Orgeron, but under prior to the change, confirms this.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:33 pm to JuiceTerry
quote:
But Bama is better than LSU in both red zone offense and defense
They are overall, which is why I said the kicker better be on point. He's going to be busy.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:34 pm to RB10
quote:
kicker better be on point
He won't be. Or maybe he will be. We have no frickin clue. Neither does he.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:36 pm to bamasgot13
quote:
I'll edit to include it. That gives you 14 points. Still below the average Wisky gives up.
Why not go through and edit out Alabama's non offensive TDs?
Your OFFENSE scored:
42 vs USC
28 vs WKU (below average)
21 vs Ole Miss (below average)
35 vs Kent State
21 vs Kentucky (below average)
35 vs Arkansas (average)
42 vs UT
20 vs Texas A&M (below average)
It would appear as though your offense is below average
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:36 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
He won't be. Or maybe he will be. We have no frickin clue. Neither does he.
LSU hasn't had an opponent miss a FG this year, which is a crazy stat for college. I'm sure he will make everything.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:38 pm to RB10
quote:
USC is not not top 30 in any meaningful category. The only thing they're even top 40 in is passing defense.
So, again, saying they are good is incredibly homerish.
USC is 21st in Defense S&P+ (15 in Rush D S&P+ and 29t in Pass D S&P+). So some advanced stats have them ranked a little better than their raw defensive numbers. Can question the value of raw stats versus advanced stats I'm sure.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:38 pm to RB10
quote:He's never on point. I'm not too worried, we score from all over the field.
They are overall, which is why I said the kicker better be on point. He's going to be busy.
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