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Has Bama's Talent advantage finally peaked?
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:03 pm
Bama has had a massive talent advantage over the rest of the conference for years... as they do still.
But evidence suggests that talent advantage may have finally hits its peak last season (at least in terms of recruiting rankings).
THE FORMULA
Take the 247Sports point totals for each of the "Big 6" programs going back to 2005, and then beginning in 2008, take the sum of each of the past 4 recruiting classes.
So each programs' 2008 score is the average of their 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 recruiting classes. Then do this for each additional year.
THE OUTCOME
Here is how Bama's scores compare to the most talented team in the league (other than themselves) in each season:
2008: -39.7 points (Bama 234.6; Florida 274.2)
2009: -28.4 points (Bama 257.3; Florida 285.7)
2010: -23.5 points (Bama 271.3; Florida 294.8)
2011: +1.2 points (Bama 288.7; Florida 287.5)
2012: +4.9 points (Bama 293.9; Florida 289.1)
2013: +6.6 points (Bama 302.3; Florida 295.8)
2014: +30.1 points (Bama 311.9; Florida 281.8)
2015: +37.1 points (Bama 314.6; LSU 277.5)
2016: +24.2 points (Bama 312.4; LSU 288.2)
So the gap rose each year and then peaked with last year's team at +37.1 points ahead of 2nd place LSU. But now that the 2016 class is counted (with the 2012 class dropping off), the gap between Bama and 2nd place LSU shrinks to 24.2 points.
Not only that, notice Bama's points rose each year from 2008 up through 2015 (314.6). That scored slighly decreased to 312.4, showing their talent may also have peaked last year.
COMPARING BAMA TO THE REST OF THE "BIG 6"
The scores follow the same trend when you compare Bama's recruiting class scores to the average of the rest of the "Big 6".
2008: -14.3
2009: + 0.2
2010: +8.3
2011: +25.8
2012: +27.1
2013: +35.5
2014: +44.3
2015: +46.5
2016: +41.8
Again, it appears the talent advantage peaked in 2015. Notice Bama's talent comprared to the average of the other 5 programs in the "Big 6" really surged beginning in 2011. That coincides with Bama's dominant run that really started in 2011
2011- National Champs
2012- National Champs
2013- Began season 11-0
2014- SEC Champs
2015: National Champs
While the 2009 team won the National Title, everyone knows that was the least talented of the Bama national title teams.
Bama's massive talent gap is still massive. It's certainly still massive enough to continue dominating the league. But I do believe there is evidence it has peaked.
But evidence suggests that talent advantage may have finally hits its peak last season (at least in terms of recruiting rankings).
THE FORMULA
Take the 247Sports point totals for each of the "Big 6" programs going back to 2005, and then beginning in 2008, take the sum of each of the past 4 recruiting classes.
So each programs' 2008 score is the average of their 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 recruiting classes. Then do this for each additional year.
THE OUTCOME
Here is how Bama's scores compare to the most talented team in the league (other than themselves) in each season:
2008: -39.7 points (Bama 234.6; Florida 274.2)
2009: -28.4 points (Bama 257.3; Florida 285.7)
2010: -23.5 points (Bama 271.3; Florida 294.8)
2011: +1.2 points (Bama 288.7; Florida 287.5)
2012: +4.9 points (Bama 293.9; Florida 289.1)
2013: +6.6 points (Bama 302.3; Florida 295.8)
2014: +30.1 points (Bama 311.9; Florida 281.8)
2015: +37.1 points (Bama 314.6; LSU 277.5)
2016: +24.2 points (Bama 312.4; LSU 288.2)
So the gap rose each year and then peaked with last year's team at +37.1 points ahead of 2nd place LSU. But now that the 2016 class is counted (with the 2012 class dropping off), the gap between Bama and 2nd place LSU shrinks to 24.2 points.
Not only that, notice Bama's points rose each year from 2008 up through 2015 (314.6). That scored slighly decreased to 312.4, showing their talent may also have peaked last year.
COMPARING BAMA TO THE REST OF THE "BIG 6"
The scores follow the same trend when you compare Bama's recruiting class scores to the average of the rest of the "Big 6".
2008: -14.3
2009: + 0.2
2010: +8.3
2011: +25.8
2012: +27.1
2013: +35.5
2014: +44.3
2015: +46.5
2016: +41.8
Again, it appears the talent advantage peaked in 2015. Notice Bama's talent comprared to the average of the other 5 programs in the "Big 6" really surged beginning in 2011. That coincides with Bama's dominant run that really started in 2011
2011- National Champs
2012- National Champs
2013- Began season 11-0
2014- SEC Champs
2015: National Champs
While the 2009 team won the National Title, everyone knows that was the least talented of the Bama national title teams.
Bama's massive talent gap is still massive. It's certainly still massive enough to continue dominating the league. But I do believe there is evidence it has peaked.
This post was edited on 2/4/16 at 2:05 pm
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Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:05 pm to BHMKyle
Alabama is leading for the #1 recruit, and has the #2 overall recruit committed for next year.
I'd say next year's class could debunk your theory.
I'd say next year's class could debunk your theory.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:07 pm to BHMKyle
Too bad their coaching advantage hasn't peaked.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:07 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
2015: +37.1 points (Bama 314.6; LSU 277.5)
quote:
showing their talent may also have peaked last year.
I mean, it is going to be tough to average more than a 310 average per class, so yea probably so.
That's like asking if the fastest time for a player on your team peaked at 4.15. Probably, it's almost impossible to physically run any faster than that.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:08 pm to BHMKyle
Yes, it has.
At the very highest tip of the highest mountain, with nowhere else to ascend, it has finally peaked.
At the very highest tip of the highest mountain, with nowhere else to ascend, it has finally peaked.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:08 pm to BHMKyle
TLDR version: "We are still fricked, but at least it won't hurt any worse than it has before."
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:08 pm to BHMKyle
Damn dude ..... you need some more time on your hands don't you .... 
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:09 pm to BHMKyle
It doesn't matter if it has peaked, as long as there is no real decline.
The real question is whether or not the talent gap is closing.
If it doesn't close a tremendous amount, Bama will continue to run the show more often than not.
The real question is whether or not the talent gap is closing.
If it doesn't close a tremendous amount, Bama will continue to run the show more often than not.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:09 pm to Crimson Legend
quote:
At the very highest tip of the highest mountain, with nowhere else to ascend, it has finally peaked.
We climbed Everest, basically, now we are just fighting to stay there.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:10 pm to BHMKyle
some of the most nonsensical math I've ever seen. what a waste of time for you this was.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:12 pm to aspiclark
I mean, it's an interesting look, but I just think it proves we are basically at peak recruiting right now and have been for 3-4 cycles. There is no way to get better.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:16 pm to Kcoyote
quote:
I'd say next year's class could debunk your theory.
It very well may. But Bama will have to not only land the #1 recruiting class next year, they'll have to land the 3rd greatest recruiting class in the history of the 247Sports rankings.
That 2013 class of Bama's scored a 319.48. It included three 5-star kids and 15 4-star kids. It also included 5 kids ranked in the Top 23 overall players.
It will have to be replicated in order for Bama's score not to drop further.
BEST RECRUITING CLASSES OF ALL TIME ACCORDING TO 247:
1) 2010 Florida- 323.64 (22 4/5 stars)
2) 2014 Alabama- 319.58 (21 4/5 stars)
3) 2015 Alabama- 319.48 (18 4/5 stars)
4) 2006 USC- 315.26 (18 4/5 stars)
5) 2015 Alabama- 314.6 (20 4/5 stars)
This 2016 class rates #6
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:17 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
It will have to be replicated in order for Bama's score not to drop further.
Again, it's like asking Apple to continue their yearly % revenue increase in 2016 compared to their original boom in 2005. When you reach a certain level you have reached peak and you can't expect to continue expanding your gap.
This post was edited on 2/4/16 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:24 pm to Cheeky Fellow
I don't think it's all that interesting tbh. Measuring the gap between the incoming freshman class and the next highest ranked incoming freshman class in any given year isn't really indicative of an overall talent advantage at all. Would be more interesting to see numbers about the overall talent on each roster instead of just for the incoming class. And with the next highest ranked team behind bama changing each year in the sample, who is to say their talent advantage has peaked? If you did the math about the overall talent on the rosters, I'd wager a guess you might find it hasn't peaked at all.
Unless the point of this was just to make the point that Bama's last class was so far ahead of everyone else that there is nowhere to go but down at this point, in which case, lol, great point I guess.
But to say these numbers are indicative of the "talent advantage" having "peaked" is questionable at best. Really not a fan of when people try to get all analytical with these subjective recruiting class indexes under the guise of actual objective statistical analysis in the first place but even if he insists, just don't understand framing this particular "stat" as he has here. the numbers don't really prove the point he says he's making.
Unless the point of this was just to make the point that Bama's last class was so far ahead of everyone else that there is nowhere to go but down at this point, in which case, lol, great point I guess.
But to say these numbers are indicative of the "talent advantage" having "peaked" is questionable at best. Really not a fan of when people try to get all analytical with these subjective recruiting class indexes under the guise of actual objective statistical analysis in the first place but even if he insists, just don't understand framing this particular "stat" as he has here. the numbers don't really prove the point he says he's making.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:25 pm to Tuscaloosa
quote:
The real question is whether or not the talent gap is closing.
If it doesn't close a tremendous amount, Bama will continue to run the show more often than not.
Correct.
That's the other part of the equation.
Currently LSU has the 2nd most talent. Here are the individual yearly totals for their past 4 classes:
2013: 266.5
2014: 275.4
2015: 277.5
2016: 288.2
LSU by far had its best class of the Miles era this year. And each of the past 4 classes have shown an increase in points. If they continue to recruit more like 2016 in the near future, that gap between them and Bama will shrink much faster.
Auburn currently has the 3rd most talent (0.2 points ahead of Georgia). Here are their last 4 individual classes:
2013: 267.37
2014: 277.02
2015: 277.40
2016: 271.16
Again, with the exception of a slight decline in 2016, they've been recruiting better each year. Up until this season, they had 4 consecutive classes with higher point totals than the one before. And then this year had a "down" year that put them #9.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:29 pm to aspiclark
quote:
Would be more interesting to see numbers about the overall talent on each roster instead of just for the incoming class.
I agree. That would be best, but we're taking it from a 20-minute project to a full day. No one has the time for that.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:32 pm to BHMKyle
The fact that Alabama more than any other school gets everyone's best shot every single game out and they're still on top is incredible.
I don't remember the last time they weren't in the hunt for the natty in mid-November.
I don't remember the last time they weren't in the hunt for the natty in mid-November.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:33 pm to silverstreak02
quote:
I don't remember the last time they weren't in the hunt for the natty in mid-November.
2008 - post-SECCG (FL to NCG) (early December)
2009 - won national title
2010 - post LSU game (2nd loss) (early November)
2011 - won national title
2012 - won national title
2013 - post-Auburn game (1st loss, AU won West) (late November)
2014 - post-Ohio State game (CFP loss) (January)
2015 - won national title
The earliest we have been eliminated from the national title since 2008 was November 6, 2010.
This post was edited on 2/4/16 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 2/4/16 at 2:34 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
their coaching advantage hasn't peaked.
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