Good to see Bullard's molehill quote being made into a mountain.

If anyone from LSU or UF needs to skew a bunch of quotes in order to be excited then they're in need of another pathway that doesn't involve football.

For LSU / UF last year, the teams had avg rush yards nearly identical 3.9 to 3.8. Fournette averaged 5.2 I think. Obviously the run game revolves around him. The biggest stat for him last year in this game was that he only had 3 yards lost. He's always getting positive yards. LSU had 195 net rushing yards and 305 total yards. LSU only had 3 lost yards rushing, aside from sacks, but UF did get 4 sacks. UF had 306 total yards. LSU held a 13 minute edge in TOP. Surprisingly LSU had twice as many penalties. LSU had 10 points off of turnovers and won the game by 3 points and I'm sure most people remember the dropped pass by UF that would have been a game winner.
Where I think LSU fans should be worried is in the fact that regardless of who plays QB for UF, the offense is much better. And, the offensive coaching is light years ahead of where it was last year. If avg rush yards were equal last year and the biggest change in this game is the difference in UF's offense, that should bode well for UF. I don't think LSU's offense has improved to the same degree UF's offense has. I mean, UF went from Muschamp to McElwain.

I think LSU was a combined 18-48 passing in the two games. Driskel ran for over 70 yards in last years game and Treon Harris is a better runner than he is. UF having to go without Grier is no advantage for LSU. Driskel had a lot of space in last year's game. Harris will run for over 100 if LSU does the same this year.

Here's the main advantage I see for UF:
UF is on the road so it'll be quiet when UF is on defense. First down is the key to the game. If UF starts getting tackles for loss on first down, the game is over as LSU will have short possessions, lose field position, and UF will score enough to win.
UF's defense is better than it was last year and has played pretty well against the run, while using mostly a nickel type approach. If UF loads the box, they still have plenty of talent in the secondary, and should be able to hold up OK against the run. UF has a lot of depth up front as well.
If LSU isn't able to just line up and push UF around, which I don't think they can, LSU will have to mix it up and get UF off balance in order to create room for the running game. If they come out with some different formations and groupings that are new, since it's quiet, UF will be able to communicate and probably avoid busted assignments and such. That could be enough to stop a quick slant on first down or whatever, and put LSU in 2nd down and 10 types of situations. This was a problem in the past, for example in 1999 when Bama came to the Swamp and changed some movement, the defense couldn't communicate. Jon Hoke mentioned it afterward. Up in BR, this won't be a problem.
And, if UF loads the box and LSU runs on 1st down and gets stopped behind the LOS, it's 2nd and 12 or whatever. I don't think LSU's run or screen game is good enough to bail them out of too many of those, with a defense like UF's.

I can't see how this game is a blowout either way and my hunch is that it'll be UF and the winner of Bama v LSU in Atlanta, so it may be the first of two for LSU/UF this year.

ETA: Was saying LSU 18-48 in the Bama and UF games combined, just forgot to add the Bama stat. Point was LSU's passing game has been pretty weak but they control the clock with a good running game.

This post was edited on 10/13/15 at 8:37 pm