Football Study Hall: Which CFB coaches consistently overachieve or underachieve?

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Last offseason, I tinkered with a measure called second-order wins. It is basically my version of the Pythagorean Wins concept, where you look at a certain component (usually points or runs scored and allowed) and determine what a team's record probably should be as opposed to what it actually is. If you're losing a ton of close games but winning a bunch of blowouts, that's probably a sign that, on average, you would be faring better than you are.

My second-order wins concept looks at the single-game win expectancy figures you see in the 2015 Schedule & Results chart below. The idea behind win expectancy is simple: It takes the key stats from a given game (success rates, explosiveness, field position factors, and other factors that end up going into the S&P+ ratings), mashes them together, and says, "With these stats, you probably could have expected to win this game X percent of the time." Add those figures up over the course of a season, and you get a glimpse of what a given team probably could have expected its record to be.

Below is a look at everyone who has been a head coach at least four years since 2005 and what their average difference is per year -- actual wins vs. win expectation.

Biggest overachievers by Diff. Wins/Year

1. Ken Niumatalolo 1.08
2. Bill Snyder 0.94
2. Gus Malzahn 0.94
4. Dave Christensen 0.91
5. Mark Hudspeth 0.89
6. Matt Campbell 0.81
7. Pat Fitzgerald 0.80
8. David Bailiff 0.79
9. Rich Brooks 0.71
10. DeWayne Walker 0.68

Biggest Underachievers

1. Todd Dodge -1.28
2. Kevin Wilson -0.96
3. Steve Addazio -0.87
4. Tyrone Willingham -0.86
5. Phil Fulmer -0.62
5. Joe Glenn -0.62
7. Doug Martin -0.60
8. Hal Mumme -0.59
9. Dave Wannstedt -0.57
10. Houston Nutt -0.56

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