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Examining Chavis role in close losses
Posted on 12/31/14 at 12:48 am
Posted on 12/31/14 at 12:48 am
Its not exactly a secret that the Chief has had his struggles the last few seasons stopping opponents at the end of a close game. What do the numbers suggest? Taking a look at opponent closing drives in the last 6 close losses
2012 Alabama 1:34 remaining
3 point lead
Final Alabama Drive: 44 yards on 4 first down plays, Yeldon Screen on 2nd and 10 for 28 yard TD.
5 plays 72 yards TD 43 seconds
LSU lost by 4
2012 Clemson 1:39 remaining
2 point lead
Final Drive: Clemson converted 4th and 16
10 plays 60 yards FG 1:39
LSU lost by 1
2013 Georgia 4:14 remaining
4 point lead
Final Drive: 5/6 plays were first downs
6 plays 75 yards TD 2:27
LSU lost by 3
2013 Ole Miss 3:19 remaining
TIE game
Final Drive: 2/3 on 3rd downs
13 plays 61 yards FG 3:17
LSU lost by 3
2014 Alabama 0:50 remaining
3 point lead
Final drive of regulation: Bama 2/2 3rd downs
9 plays 55 yards FG 0:47
LSU lost by 7
2014 Notre Dame 5:41
TIE game
Final Drive: ND 3/3 on 3rd downs
14 plays 71 yards FG 5:41
LSU lost by 3
On average, LSU's opponents got the ball with 2:53 remaining, used 2:26, went 66 yards and kicked a field goal. 7/9 on 3rd downs, 1/1 on 4th downs and never faced a 3rd down in 2 of those 6 games.
In 6 of LSU's 11 losses since 2011, the Tigers were winning or tied and Chavis' group failed. Make what you will of it but it certainly suggests a trend for the soon to be highest paid DC. FWIW, LSU averaged 25PPG in these 6 games. Opponents, 28PPG
2012 Alabama 1:34 remaining
3 point lead
Final Alabama Drive: 44 yards on 4 first down plays, Yeldon Screen on 2nd and 10 for 28 yard TD.
5 plays 72 yards TD 43 seconds
LSU lost by 4
2012 Clemson 1:39 remaining
2 point lead
Final Drive: Clemson converted 4th and 16
10 plays 60 yards FG 1:39
LSU lost by 1
2013 Georgia 4:14 remaining
4 point lead
Final Drive: 5/6 plays were first downs
6 plays 75 yards TD 2:27
LSU lost by 3
2013 Ole Miss 3:19 remaining
TIE game
Final Drive: 2/3 on 3rd downs
13 plays 61 yards FG 3:17
LSU lost by 3
2014 Alabama 0:50 remaining
3 point lead
Final drive of regulation: Bama 2/2 3rd downs
9 plays 55 yards FG 0:47
LSU lost by 7
2014 Notre Dame 5:41
TIE game
Final Drive: ND 3/3 on 3rd downs
14 plays 71 yards FG 5:41
LSU lost by 3
On average, LSU's opponents got the ball with 2:53 remaining, used 2:26, went 66 yards and kicked a field goal. 7/9 on 3rd downs, 1/1 on 4th downs and never faced a 3rd down in 2 of those 6 games.
In 6 of LSU's 11 losses since 2011, the Tigers were winning or tied and Chavis' group failed. Make what you will of it but it certainly suggests a trend for the soon to be highest paid DC. FWIW, LSU averaged 25PPG in these 6 games. Opponents, 28PPG
This post was edited on 12/31/14 at 12:53 am
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Posted on 12/31/14 at 12:52 am to Lsuhoohoo
So doesn't that mean in 5 of 11 losses it was the offense, making it pretty much evenly split in blame between Chavis and the offensive personnel??
Posted on 12/31/14 at 12:53 am to Lsuhoohoo
Yes. Chavis missed all those tackles and threw so many interceptions.
Posted on 12/31/14 at 12:54 am to Lsuhoohoo
I understand putting a dress on this pig but in all of those losses you act like the offense had done what it needed to. Your HC went for if on 4th and one instead of kicking a fg in one of those close losses to Alabama. Your HC put that defense in a lot of those positions with an anemic offense.
Posted on 12/31/14 at 12:57 am to RangerRicky
quote:
So doesn't that mean in 5 of 11 losses it was the offense, making it pretty much evenly split in blame between Chavis and the offensive personnel??
thats close loses.
You could argue the defense gave up the Miss St game as well.
And both sides were terrible against Auburn.
Posted on 12/31/14 at 1:00 am to RangerRicky
quote:
So doesn't that mean in 5 of 11 losses it was the offense, making it pretty much evenly split in blame between Chavis and the offensive personnel??
In the 5 games not mentioned, the offense averaged 12 PPG and the defense averaged 29PPG so I'd argue neither group showed up in those 5.
Posted on 12/31/14 at 1:14 am to labamafan
I believe we scored over 50 at Georgia. Not always the offenses fault we actually did pretty good last year on offense but had 0 help on the defense
Posted on 12/31/14 at 1:32 am to Tigerfan_95
I think you make a fair point about the late game defense. To the other contention that the opposing teams offense were responsible I would say then how did LSU stop them in the rest of the game and then all of a sudden the offenses waved a magic wand and voila TD! If you believe that then why didn't the all pro offense do that all game? Chavez definitely pulled the LBs off deep today AGAIN leaving people like Beckwith to make a big open field tackle that earlier n the game he is on him if not breaking the pass up! Also on 3rd and 3 ND shifted the TE and wingback from left to right and LSU made NO ADJUSTMENT and was away over manned on a run for 5 yards, I was thinking wtf I wish we had seen that late game defense in baton rouge this year!
I rarely pull for LSU in conference but was a big fan today and I was upset with that last series immensely!
That said I hope you keep him and pay him more!
I rarely pull for LSU in conference but was a big fan today and I was upset with that last series immensely!
That said I hope you keep him and pay him more!
This post was edited on 12/31/14 at 1:35 am
Posted on 12/31/14 at 1:37 am to Lsuhoohoo
Let us not forget his tenure at Tennessee when he gave up crucial drives late as well to lose us the game.
Posted on 12/31/14 at 1:51 am to psk_Vol
You Vol fans, and maybe Bama fans as rivals, well understand these Chavis intricacies as do LSU fans.
To many here others here, we're just bitter LSU fans, unappreciative of a totally irreplaceable DC.
Chavis as good as he is, was just continuation of Saban, Muschamp, Pelini..
Reload, Rinse, Repeat. Frankly, the thought of new blood is intriguing. Miles, Cam, Chavis,etc..are moving a lil slow.
LSU as a program needs to play faster/execute(especially the Offense), the D despite solid stats and the two great home efforts vs Ole Miss and Bama..needs more piss and vinegar weekly across the season..more Turnovers and pressure upfront.
Orgeron at DL or DC, Steele, Durkin,etc..interesting. New blood, new energy.
To many here others here, we're just bitter LSU fans, unappreciative of a totally irreplaceable DC.
Chavis as good as he is, was just continuation of Saban, Muschamp, Pelini..
Reload, Rinse, Repeat. Frankly, the thought of new blood is intriguing. Miles, Cam, Chavis,etc..are moving a lil slow.
LSU as a program needs to play faster/execute(especially the Offense), the D despite solid stats and the two great home efforts vs Ole Miss and Bama..needs more piss and vinegar weekly across the season..more Turnovers and pressure upfront.
Orgeron at DL or DC, Steele, Durkin,etc..interesting. New blood, new energy.
This post was edited on 12/31/14 at 2:39 am
Posted on 12/31/14 at 1:56 am to Lsuhoohoo
25 ppg is pretty terrible, 91 out of 128 teams averaged more than 25 ppg this season. Those losses were more on the offense than the defense.
This post was edited on 12/31/14 at 2:00 am
Posted on 12/31/14 at 1:59 am to Lsuhoohoo
quote:
2014 Alabama 0:50 remaining
3 point lead
Final drive of regulation: Bama 2/2 3rd downs
9 plays 55 yards FG 0:47
LSU lost by 7
LSU had the ball inside the Alabama 10 with less than 2 minutes left with a tie ball game and SOMEHOW came away with only a field goal and burned less than a minute of clock time.
Posted on 12/31/14 at 2:04 am to Lsuhoohoo
I almost want this all to fall apart and for Chavis to stay at LSU to watch the backtracking
Posted on 12/31/14 at 2:05 am to beaver
lol me too a little, but I think the meltdown if he leaves >
Posted on 12/31/14 at 2:08 am to CrimsonFever
but if he doesn't, we got the LSU melt, another A&M melt, and LSU backtracking
it's a win, win, win
it's a win, win, win
Posted on 12/31/14 at 2:09 am to Lsuhoohoo
Let's look at the final LSU drive in each of those games.
2012 Alabama (started at own 18)
11 plays, 54 yards, missed FG (5:46)
2012 Clemson (started at own 39)
3 plays, 8 yards, punt (1:08)
2013 Georgia (started at own 17)
6 plays, 11 yards, turnover on downs (55 seconds)
2013 Ole Miss (started at own 20)
11 plays, 80 yards, TD (3:10)
2014 Alabama (started at Alabama 6)
4 plays, -16 yards, FG (23 seconds)
2014 Notre Dame (started at own 20)
6 plays, 20 yards, punt (4:08)
Only ONE of those drives resulted in an LSU score.
2012 Alabama (started at own 18)
11 plays, 54 yards, missed FG (5:46)
2012 Clemson (started at own 39)
3 plays, 8 yards, punt (1:08)
2013 Georgia (started at own 17)
6 plays, 11 yards, turnover on downs (55 seconds)
2013 Ole Miss (started at own 20)
11 plays, 80 yards, TD (3:10)
2014 Alabama (started at Alabama 6)
4 plays, -16 yards, FG (23 seconds)
2014 Notre Dame (started at own 20)
6 plays, 20 yards, punt (4:08)
Only ONE of those drives resulted in an LSU score.
Posted on 12/31/14 at 2:15 am to beaver
quote:
I almost want this all to fall apart and for Chavis to stay at LSU to watch the backtracking
What am I gonna backtrack and say Chavis' defense hasn't been poor at closing at games? Not likely. This was a post that likely would have been made even if Chavis never intended to leave. You're reaching.
This post was edited on 12/31/14 at 2:20 am
Posted on 12/31/14 at 2:16 am to beaver
I would rather him just go at this point, even though I like him as a coach..
It is as good a year as any to get a new, younger DC that hopefully will call a more aggressive defense to showcase the athletes we have on blitzes, and be more consistent on third downs and late game drives...
Our blitz packages/schemes/whatever you want to call it, suck. Playing wide 9 the whole game sucks too, and is exactly why we get gutted up the middle.
It is as good a year as any to get a new, younger DC that hopefully will call a more aggressive defense to showcase the athletes we have on blitzes, and be more consistent on third downs and late game drives...
Our blitz packages/schemes/whatever you want to call it, suck. Playing wide 9 the whole game sucks too, and is exactly why we get gutted up the middle.
Posted on 12/31/14 at 2:35 am to Lsuhoohoo
I could be remembering things incorrectly, but Chavis does seem to have a habit of going with the prevent (or at the very least giving the receivers a ton of room) and sticking with it when it's obviously not working.
Posted on 12/31/14 at 2:53 am to Pilotreb
quote:
the other contention that the opposing teams offense were responsible I would say then how did LSU stop them in the rest of the game and then all of a sudden the offenses waved a magic wand and voila TD!
Prevent defense. Throughout the entire game the defense plays to stop the offense where the ball lies. The end of close games we go into prevent defense and give up 15-20 yard chunks at a time bc our secondary has backed off. If you'll look, it's never a big play that we lose these games. It's the offense working its way down the field because we are in prevent defense as if they're going to throw four Hail Marys in a row to try to win the game. Like what our offense did in overtime against bama throwing to the end zone 4 times when a first down would have been more beneficial.
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