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re: Early line Alabama -5.5

Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:57 pm to
Posted by JuiceTerry
Roond the Scheme
Member since Apr 2013
40868 posts
Posted on 10/24/16 at 10:57 pm to
So this was the line for the GOTC. People losing their minds over it.
Posted by wahoocs
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2004
22267 posts
Posted on 10/24/16 at 11:00 pm to
I don't see this line moving anywhere in LSU's direction, unless it's opened too high, meaning 10+
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83385 posts
Posted on 10/24/16 at 11:01 pm to
quote:

This is an old article.

It'll open around 9, be bet down to 7, then settle in around 7.5 or 8 I bet.
Oh shite, we all get a second chance at this

frick you I say 13.5 again!
Posted by GRTiger
On a roof eating alligator pie
Member since Dec 2008
62824 posts
Posted on 10/24/16 at 11:01 pm to
quote:

Am I the only one to notice that this linked thread to a forum was from 5 years ago?


Yep
This post was edited on 10/24/16 at 11:02 pm
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 10/24/16 at 11:01 pm to
quote:

I don't see this line moving anywhere in LSU's direction

It probably will, at least at some point.

Posted by TigerBait1127
Houston
Member since Jun 2005
47336 posts
Posted on 10/24/16 at 11:02 pm to
I'm gonna say around 9.5
Posted by logjamming
Member since Feb 2014
7822 posts
Posted on 10/24/16 at 11:11 pm to
texag7 dickriding Alabama. Color me shocked.
Posted by bama1959
Huntsville, AL
Member since Nov 2008
4557 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:10 am to
quote:

If you aren't betting either of these, you're probably going to lose money.

How will I lose if I don't bet?
Posted by hophead
Member since Nov 2007
1968 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:22 am to
These guys that make up the lines really know what's going on. It's a good thing I don't gamble. I thought Arky +10 to Auburn and Ole Miss +7 to LSU we're sure things.

Now this? As much as I hate to admit it, Bama has played at a completely different level than everyone else. To see a -5 on this game again seems like easy money. What don't we know? I know it's Tiger Stadium at night. I know LF is back. I know Miles is gone.

Just interesting.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 7:50 am to
quote:

we physically dominated bama in 2014 if you don't believe that you are dumb


Really?

You should let ESPN know because the box score they've got is clearly wrong.

Alabama averaged 3.7 yards per carry rushing. LSU averaged 3.3.

Alabama averaged 4.5 yards per attempt passing, LSU averaged 2.9.

Alabama had 315 yards of total offense. LSU had 259.

You did win the time of possession battle 38 -22, so congrats?

As the box score indicates, it was an evenly played game where both defenses dominated - in other words a typical LSU/Alabama game.
Posted by Nuts4LSU
Washington, DC
Member since Oct 2003
25468 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 7:55 am to
quote:

I'm surprised the line is this low. Alabama has kicked LSUs arse pretty good the last few years.


If Alabama were to cover that 5.5 point spread by just a half point and win by 6 in regulation, it would be their most convincing victory in Tiger Stadium in 14 years. The games in Tiger Stadium since Saban has been at Alabama:

2014: Bama 20-13 in overtime
2012: Bama 21-17 on last-minute drive
2010: LSU 24-21
2008: Bama 27-21 in overtime

There are many reasons to think Alabama may win the game by more than a touchdown. Recent relevant history (i.e. in the venue where the game will actually be played) is not one of them.

Also, all of those were against Les Miles offenses. Two of the four (2008 and 2014) were against LSU teams that finished 8-5, tied for the worst record LSU has had in the 2000s. Those two teams (who both took #1 ranked Alabama to overtime in Tiger Stadium) managed to get blown out to the tunes of:

51-21 by Florida (2008)
52-38 by Georgia (2008)
31-13 by Ole Miss (2008)
41-7 by Auburn (2014)
17-0 by Arkansas, which was on a 17-game SEC losing streak entering the game (2014)

Again, there are plenty of reasons why Alabama might win this game handily. But if LSU's worst teams in this millenium, getting blown out left and right by other teams, plodding along with a Les Miles offense, can still take two different #1 ranked Saban-coached Alabama teams to overtime and never lose by more than 4 in regulation since he's been there, then whatever insight history provides, it does not suggest a blowout for Alabama in Tiger Stadium.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 8:21 am
Posted by pbro62
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2016
11254 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 7:56 am to
The Frick you said?
Posted by junkfunky
Member since Jan 2011
33849 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 7:58 am to
Are all of you retarded?
Posted by Brosef Stalin17
Member since Sep 2014
1090 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 8:01 am to
quote:

You should put money on bama if you think they can cover 5 points.


Posted by TouchdownTony
Central Alabama
Member since Apr 2016
9642 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 8:05 am to
quote:

we physically dominated bama in 2014 if you don't believe that you are dumb



No, no you didn't. You were playing equally at best. We dominated total yards.
Posted by CapstoneGrad06
Little Rock
Member since Nov 2008
72131 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 8:05 am to
This will be a long two weeks. We all just melted over the OP's link from 5 years ago.
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
96003 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 8:09 am to
No clue what the spread will be but i enjoyed the guy who tried to use games in tuscaloosa and neutral site NC game in his average victory argument as if that has anything to do with a game being played in tiger stadium. that was pretty funny.
Posted by Jenar Boy
Elsewhere
Member since Aug 2013
12521 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 8:15 am to
quote:

I'm surprised the line is this low. Alabama has kicked LSUs arse pretty good the last few years


It's in BR man. The last 4 games in DV have been decided by a total of 20 pts. I'd say that's about right
Posted by El Magnifico
La casa de tu mamá
Member since Jan 2014
7017 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 8:28 am to
It's probably already been mentioned but the only games that were blowouts were in Tuscaloosa. In 2012 Alabama needed the Chavis 2:00 defense and in 2014 it took a bonehead questionable penalty and some more Chavis to take it to OT.
Posted by TideWarrior
Asheville/Chapel Hill NC
Member since Sep 2009
11827 posts
Posted on 10/25/16 at 8:42 am to
quote:

Of course theres the BCSNC Bama 21 LSU 0 too.


Funny going into that game LSU fans said on here how it was a home game for them and we had no chance. But little do they forget about that one.
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