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D1 Chat 5/2 (SEC related posts)
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:13 pm
quote:
Comment From Brad
What are realistic expectations for the LSU baseball program? I assume somewhere between winning 1 game at the CWS in 6 years and 5 championships in 10 years.
Kendall Rogers:
Brad,
I would say a College World Series appearance after two or three years. I know that's not what LSU fans probably want to hear, but parity is at an all-time high in college baseball, and it's tough to get to Omaha, much less win a national title. Skip Bertman, for instance, coached during an era where a select few ruled the roost. That's not the case anymore.
quote:
Comment From Road to Omaha
How would you handicap the SEC race at this point?
Aaron Fitt:
Obviously South Carolina's in the driver's seat, with a one-game lead over Florida and a 1.5 game lead over Texas A&M. With their remaining schedules, I envision the Gamecocks finishing with 20 SEC wins, the Gators finishing with 21, and the Aggies finishing with 20. But you know, trying to predict what's going to happen in three upcoming weekends is like trying to predict the weather three weeks from now. But I'm going with the Gators.
quote:
Comment From Dylan
Mississippi state is winning all their series. It's starting to be a Trent that they go 2-1 every weekend. And from where they are now, that would end up being 18-12 to finish the SEC. Maybe there's a a sweep somewhere in there. But my question is, even though there's a good chance They finish behind A&M in the west unless A&M stumbles the last three SEC series against ranked foes. Do you see Mississippi state getting a national seed winning 9/10 SEC series's. I mean some would think so considering who they have beaten on the road and being 3-1 against ole miss who is top 10 in the RPI. But that would make it 4 sec schools with national seeds and I just don't see that happening.
Kendall Rogers:
Dylan,
If Miss State wins the rest of its SEC series, I would be shocked if it is not a national seed. Again, there would not be a team out there with a better road resume than the Bulldogs. I feel very confident in that potential at this point.
quote:
Comment From CB
A&M's schedule is brutal down the stretch with Vandy, SC, and Ole Miss coming up. In your opinion what do the Ags need to do the rest of the way to hold on to a national seed?
Kendall Rogers:
CB -- I think the Aggies are an easy national seed if they can win two of their final three series, and I think they do that -- they take Vandy/Ole Miss at home, and drop the road series at South Carolina. Big key will be avoiding getting swept in any of those three series as well.
quote:
Comment From Ian
Who gets left out in the SEC and ACC if the committee decides four national seeds is too many for one conference?
Kendall Rogers:
Ian -- Mississippi State would be the odd man out in the SEC right now if you just simply couldn't have four national seeds. Behind A&M in the SEC West Standings, also got swept by the Aggies at home. Feel comfortable about SC, Florida and A&M at this point.
quote:
Comment From Ty
Outside of UCSB & TTU, can any non SEC/ACC team earn a national seed? Even TTU needs to finish 7-1 just to stay in the top 16 RPI before Bricktown.
Ty,
If there is another team, they will have to come out of the woodwork the final 3/4 weeks of the regular season. Right now, I think you have 11 teams for 8 spots, the other three being NC State, UCSB and Ole Miss. Yes, the national seed "bubble" is that small.
quote:
Comment From Ty
Will there be more top 10 teams in the final regular season rankings in Hoover or Omaha?
Kendall Rogers:
Ty,
That's a funny question. And I actually think there's a pretty decent chance of that being the case. I've never thought about that ....
Aaron Fitt:
Reading comprehension is not Kendall's strong suit, so I'll answer this one for you: Hoover. We've currently got 5 SEC teams in the top 10, plus Ole Miss at 12 and LSU in striking distance at 17. Of course, I think there's a decent chance that a number of those teams get to Omaha too, because the SEC and ACC are just better than everybody else this year... So it could be close.
quote:
Comment From David
LSU is now 3-4 in SEC series this year. They have an impressive series win over Vandy, but lost to the other 4 quality opponents they have played. They got swept by Tulane. Is it safe to say they are out of the hosting discussion unless it truly comes down to money?
David,
I would have LSU out of it right now with Ole Miss taking the Tigers' spot. However, nothing is set in stone, and we still have to debate that tomorrow night (Aaron and Mark, along with myself). I would say this past week was a definite step back, however.
quote:
Comment From Vandy Fan
You didn't included Vandy in your list of possible Nat'l Seeds on the Podcast today. Regardless of how you think their next 2 weeks will play out, in theory wouldn't winning series at TAMU and UF plus a midweek win vs. Louisville get them back in the conversation?
Aaron Fitt:
Well certainly. That's a tough road, but I do still think Vandy is still talented enough to have at least a chance to pull it off. But it's hard to bet on that happening right now, considering both of those series are on the road.
quote:
Comment From Hope
If South Carolina loses one of their last 3 series could they drop out of the National Seed talk?
Kendall Rogers:
Hope,
Still think South Carolina needs to "lose" one. I'm not sure a series loss to A&M would do that unless the Gamecocks lost another series. Still leading the Southeastern Conference, and that's pretty loud.
quote:
Comment From Boy_Scouts_of_America
It was interesting to see how Texas A&M maintained their position in the rankings at number two in the land, while "struggling" at Arkansas.
Kendall Rogers:
They went 3-1 for the week. If we are in the business of dropping teams who went 3-1 for the week, everyone would drop most weeks. For the record, the Aggies were dominant in the series finale after scoring 11 in Game Two.
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 2:31 pm
7
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:13 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Comment From JB
Any reason to be concerned about the Florida bats after this weekend?
Kendall Rogers:
I am not concerned. South Carolina's got some big-time arms, and that series was on the road.
quote:
Comment From Schaeffer
Assuming (1) So. Miss wins regular season CUSA title with tie-breaker over Rice and (2) Ole Miss finishes the SEC season strong (3) host sites comply with non-discrimination policy...then what are the chances of the regional committee giving the state of Mississippi end up with 3 regionals? If it's a non-issue, who gets paired for the super-regional? If it becomes an issue, who gets left out?
Aaron Fitt:
It's entirely possible the state of Mississippi winds up with 3 hosts. The one I'd feel the shakiest about right now is Southern Miss, but if in fact those guys can win C-USA, and Ole Miss and Southern Miss finish strong, I see no reason why that state couldn't get three. If that happened, I think you'd see Mississippi State (presuming it is a national seed) paired up with Southern Miss.
quote:
Comment From Windywave
How would you guys rank the teams in Louisiana from top to bottom? Any hate mail yet from Baton Rouge for ranking the Greenies above the tigers?
Kendall Rogers:
Windy,
I think LSU fans are more pissed at their own team to be worried about us. I'd go with Tulane/LSU/Louisiana-Lafayette/Southeastern Louisiana/Louisiana Tech/Mc Neese State/Northwestern State
quote:
Comment From Ty
Who are the leaders for national player of the year? Does Boomer White get some consideration? He's batting over .400 on the year & over .500 in SEC play.
Aaron Fitt:
Heck, at this point he's got to be in the conversation, doesn't he? Leading the SEC in batting and has just 12 strikeouts all year... that's pretty darn good. Ultimately, I think he probably doesn't slug enough to win it, but he's in the mix. I'd say the leaders are probably Seth Beer, Will Craig, Kyle Lewis, Zack Collins, and Clarke Schmidt (who seems like the pitcher with the strongest case at this point).
quote:
Comment From Miztig
If Missouri wins two of the last three series they have left and then wins a couple games in the SEC tournament, do they have a shot making an regional?
Kendall Rogers:
Not happening. RPI is at 89 right now, and they are 7-14 in the SEC. Tigers would need some serious things to go their way to make the postseason.
quote:
Comment From David
Who are your favorites for the Texas job, assuming it opens up? Is David Pierce on the radar for that job?
Kendall Rogers:
David -- If the Texas job comes open, my three would be Brian O'Connor, Kevin O'Sullivan or Tim Corbin, along with Dan McDonnell. Those four would have to turn me down.
quote:
Comment From Eric Captain Morgan
Is LSU out of the National seed discussion? IF they win the SEC Tournament can they be a national seed?
Kendall Rogers:
Four bid league barring a surprise.
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:17 pm to Farmer1906
Good stuff
Thanks for posting
Thanks for posting
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:26 pm to reggierayreb
The most interesting take away for me is that there are 11 teams playing for 8 spots.
Florida
Texas A&M
Miss St
S Carolina
Ole Miss
Miami
Florida St
Louisville
NC State
Texas Tech
UC Santa Bar
I am considering doing a thread comparing all 11. I think what I'll find if that really it should be 4 SEC teams and 4 ACC teams with TTU & UCSB out the outside looking in based 100% on resume without looking at conference or location.
Florida
Texas A&M
Miss St
S Carolina
Ole Miss
Miami
Florida St
Louisville
NC State
Texas Tech
UC Santa Bar
I am considering doing a thread comparing all 11. I think what I'll find if that really it should be 4 SEC teams and 4 ACC teams with TTU & UCSB out the outside looking in based 100% on resume without looking at conference or location.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:44 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Comment From Boy_Scouts_of_America
It was interesting to see how Texas A&M maintained their position in the rankings at number two in the land, while "struggling" at Arkansas.
Kendall Rogers:
They went 3-1 for the week. If we are in the business of dropping teams who went 3-1 for the week, everyone would drop most weeks. For the record, the Aggies were dominant in the series finale after scoring 11 in Game Two.
Somebody is giving Boy Scouts a bad name. Wonder if it is this guy.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:48 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
omment From Brad
What are realistic expectations for the LSU baseball program? I assume somewhere between winning 1 game at the CWS in 6 years and 5 championships in 10 years.
Kendall Rogers:
Brad,
I would say a College World Series appearance after two or three years. I know that's not what LSU fans probably want to hear, but parity is at an all-time high in college baseball, and it's tough to get to Omaha, much less win a national title. Skip Bertman, for instance, coached during an era where a select few ruled the roost. That's not the case anymore.
After what? Is that supposed to say every 2-3 years? I think most of us expect to be in the conversation every year, and I'd say we expect to make it once every 2 years. As long as we actually win a few games when we get there too.
I agree with most of that statement though. Baseball is a hard game to dominate in, its so easy to drop a game or 2 just cause things went the wrong way. We are still the premier name in the sport of college baseball though and so I would expect to have a better team than almost every other team... almost every year.
Even this year. We all knew we were ranked highly solely because of the name on the jersey. We replaced 8/9 guys in the batting order, play in a brutal conference, and are still in the conversation to host a regional. I think that is pretty good, and most are okay with that. We haven't been swept this year, and some of the series we lost even felt like they were a play or 2 away from going our way.
Then next year, depending on the draft, we potentially return all 9 guys in the lineup (likely 8), our friday and saturday pitchers, and bring in another top notch recruiting class. That team we would expect to make the CWS and hopefully make a run for the natty.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:48 pm to Farmer1906
DP
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:51 pm to GeauxPack81
quote:
Is that supposed to say every 2-3 years?
I think so. At least that is how I read it. Making the CWS 4 times over a 10 year. I think any team would take that.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:56 pm to GeauxPack81
quote:
We are still the premier name in the sport of college baseball
Woah! Might want to tap the brakes just a bit there, friend. You guys are 7 years out from your last Natty, and it was 9 before that. A dominating run in the 90's, and a history any objective Aggie would be envious of.
But, don't go all Longhorn on us and claim that 20 year old run means you are all that these days. Still an impressive program, with a great gameday atmosphere, but there is no case there for bigfooting in the current SEC.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 2:57 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Making the CWS 4 times over a 10 year. I think any team would take that.
I think currently that at least Florida and Vandy would be a little disappointed in that rate.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:02 pm to Vandyrone
quote:
I think currently that at least Florida and Vandy would be a little disappointed in that rate.
Over the last 10 years you're 3/10 & UF is 4/10. I know you've been there 3/5, but I think it is unrealistic to expect to continue that over the next 5 years.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:06 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Over the last 10 years you're 3/10 & UF is 4/10. I know you've been there 3/5, but I think it is unrealistic to expect to continue that over the next 5 years
Florida would be a huge disappointment if they didn't make it once over the next 5 years. If Vandy only got there 1 of the next 5 years, that would also be a disappointment.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:09 pm to Vandyrone
I think you're being a little too literal. Sure teams go on streaks and can make it more than 40% of the time. However to expect to make it yearly or at a significantly higher clip is holding your program to a level that is not going to happen.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:13 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
I think you're being a little too literal. Sure teams go on streaks and can make it more than 40% of the time. However to expect to make it yearly or at a significantly higher clip is holding your program to a level that is not going to happen.
Long-term or historically, I would agree. In the current landscape, I think both Florida and Vandy fans would be content with 5 out of 10. Florida probably 6/10.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:13 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Comment From Dylan
Mississippi state is winning all their series. It's starting to be a Trent that they go 2-1 every weekend. And from where they are now, that would end up being 18-12 to finish the SEC. Maybe there's a a sweep somewhere in there. But my question is, even though there's a good chance They finish behind A&M in the west unless A&M stumbles the last three SEC series against ranked foes. Do you see Mississippi state getting a national seed winning 9/10 SEC series's. I mean some would think so considering who they have beaten on the road and being 3-1 against ole miss who is top 10 in the RPI. But that would make it 4 sec schools with national seeds and I just don't see that happening.
Which poster is this? MullenBoys? Joshua?
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:14 pm to GeauxPack81
LSU has probably averaged once every 2 years since Bertman was hired I would think. I think for a program like LSU going 4/10 years and winning a title at the very least once every 10 years should be the bare minimum. Bertman is a legend, so to expect to make it like 60 or 70% of the time and win a title every three years is probably a little unrealistic. There are just too many strong programs and the postseason can be such a crapshoot
Judging a coach by postseason performance is tough. It obviously matters, but unless you're FSU every program that's elite in the regular season and making it to Omaha consistently is probably winning titles. FSU just can't be explained
Judging a coach by postseason performance is tough. It obviously matters, but unless you're FSU every program that's elite in the regular season and making it to Omaha consistently is probably winning titles. FSU just can't be explained
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:16 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
FSU just can't be explained
I almost feel bad for FSU. Almost.
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:20 pm to Vandyrone
That's my biggest fear as a program 
it would absolutely suck
We don't have a title in baseball, but we haven't had close to the success FSU has had in the regular season and in getting to Omaha
it would absolutely suck We don't have a title in baseball, but we haven't had close to the success FSU has had in the regular season and in getting to Omaha
This post was edited on 5/2/16 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:24 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
I think for a program like LSU going 4/10 years and winning a title at the very least once every 10 years should be the bare minimum.
I chuckled at this when I read it, but this is truly the expectation from LSU fans. Still trying to figure out if that is a bad or good thing...
Posted on 5/2/16 at 3:25 pm to Ag Zwin
quote:
Woah! Might want to tap the brakes just a bit there, friend. You guys are 7 years out from your last Natty, and it was 9 before that. A dominating run in the 90's, and a history any objective Aggie would be envious of.
But, don't go all Longhorn on us and claim that 20 year old run means you are all that these days. Still an impressive program, with a great gameday atmosphere, but there is no case there for bigfooting in the current SEC.
Sure we have slowed down the remarkable rate we were at, but who would be the premier name in baseball right now then? Its not like we dropped off a cliff after Bertman left, we just let off the gas a little. If we aren't THE name on college baseball, we are certainly in the top 3-5.
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