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College Baseball Landscape: National Seeds/Regional Hosts and More
Posted on 5/8/16 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 5/8/16 at 4:18 pm
National Seed Locks
Florida
Miami
Texas A&M
Florida State
Probable National Seeds (but locks to host)
South Carolina
Mississippi State
Louisville
Texas Tech
Ready to Accept National Seed if someone doesn't want it (locks to host)
Ole Miss
North Carolina State
bullshite Geographic Hosts
Michigan or Minnesota
Washington or Arizona
The Fight for Four More Hosts
Vanderbilt or LSU
Virginia, Clemson or Georgia Tech
Coastal Carolina
UC Santa Barbara or Cal State Fullerton
Southern Miss, Rice or Florida Atlantic
Creighton
Long Shots but Worth Mentioning
Texas Christian or Oklahoma State
UNC Wilmington
Tulane
What Most People Weren't Watching This Weekend: The West Coast has been struggling this year. UCSB had a nice RPI and was almost assured a national seed. They lost 2 of 3 to #224 UC Davis this weekend and have fallen from grace. I still think 2 of these four teams will host:
#16 RPI UC Santa Barbara
#28 RPI Arizona
#37 RPI Washington (current Pac 12 leader)
#42 RPI Cal State Fullerton (current Big West leader)
The 2 seed no one wants: Florida Atlantic. The Owls still have a good chance to win Conference USA (and possibly hosting) They are one game back of Southern Miss and Rice. They have already won the series against USM, and they have Rice in Houston next week. Why you don't want to face them: FAU is 3-1 against Miami and Mississippi State, two probable national seeds. With Florida, Florida State and Miami all locks to host, FAU is likely to end up in one of these. The national seed that lands the Owls should immediately be put on upset alert. This is a good squad.
The Regional that non-SEC hosts want: While its easy to think Hattiesburg, the Big Ten and Pac 12 suck this year. The two teams that get the bullshite geographic hosts are unlikely to come out alive. Utah just lost the lead in the Pac 12 this weekend and Indiana currently leads the Big 10. Average RPI of those two teams? 118.
Southern 4-seed that is better than you think? Alabama State. The Hornets went 24-0 in the SWAC. They have wins over Tennessee and South Alabama, and their pitchers have strong numbers. And don't forget, just two years ago, SWAC champion Jackson State went into national seeded Louisiana-Lafayette and won a 1-0 game in the opener. ASU's ace can do the same thing to an unsuspecting Mississippi State or Ole Miss.
Highest RPI team in History to stay home? 31. Georgia is 29th right now with a losing record.
Florida
Miami
Texas A&M
Florida State
Probable National Seeds (but locks to host)
South Carolina
Mississippi State
Louisville
Texas Tech
Ready to Accept National Seed if someone doesn't want it (locks to host)
Ole Miss
North Carolina State
bullshite Geographic Hosts
Michigan or Minnesota
Washington or Arizona
The Fight for Four More Hosts
Vanderbilt or LSU
Virginia, Clemson or Georgia Tech
Coastal Carolina
UC Santa Barbara or Cal State Fullerton
Southern Miss, Rice or Florida Atlantic
Creighton
Long Shots but Worth Mentioning
Texas Christian or Oklahoma State
UNC Wilmington
Tulane
What Most People Weren't Watching This Weekend: The West Coast has been struggling this year. UCSB had a nice RPI and was almost assured a national seed. They lost 2 of 3 to #224 UC Davis this weekend and have fallen from grace. I still think 2 of these four teams will host:
#16 RPI UC Santa Barbara
#28 RPI Arizona
#37 RPI Washington (current Pac 12 leader)
#42 RPI Cal State Fullerton (current Big West leader)
The 2 seed no one wants: Florida Atlantic. The Owls still have a good chance to win Conference USA (and possibly hosting) They are one game back of Southern Miss and Rice. They have already won the series against USM, and they have Rice in Houston next week. Why you don't want to face them: FAU is 3-1 against Miami and Mississippi State, two probable national seeds. With Florida, Florida State and Miami all locks to host, FAU is likely to end up in one of these. The national seed that lands the Owls should immediately be put on upset alert. This is a good squad.
The Regional that non-SEC hosts want: While its easy to think Hattiesburg, the Big Ten and Pac 12 suck this year. The two teams that get the bullshite geographic hosts are unlikely to come out alive. Utah just lost the lead in the Pac 12 this weekend and Indiana currently leads the Big 10. Average RPI of those two teams? 118.
Southern 4-seed that is better than you think? Alabama State. The Hornets went 24-0 in the SWAC. They have wins over Tennessee and South Alabama, and their pitchers have strong numbers. And don't forget, just two years ago, SWAC champion Jackson State went into national seeded Louisiana-Lafayette and won a 1-0 game in the opener. ASU's ace can do the same thing to an unsuspecting Mississippi State or Ole Miss.
Highest RPI team in History to stay home? 31. Georgia is 29th right now with a losing record.
This post was edited on 5/8/16 at 4:34 pm
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Posted on 5/8/16 at 4:25 pm to anc
We have to take care of business these last two weekends (winning won't help our rpi but losing a series would be disastrous), avoid the Tuesday playin round by finishing in the top 4 and winning a game or two against good rpi teams at Hoover. Be hard to deny us a national seed at that point.
Posted on 5/8/16 at 4:26 pm to anc
We have a high RPI and I think the #1 SOS but we just have a pitiful record. Fortunately we have series with mizzou and Tennessee coming up so there is still hope we can finish above .500 and potentially sneak our way in.
I wouldn't get my hopes up though.
I wouldn't get my hopes up though.
Posted on 5/8/16 at 4:29 pm to anc
Nice write up OP. I expect Kentucky will get a 3 seed in Louisville. Hopefully we can spoil the Dirty Birds, but I don't think we're going to do anymore than that.
Posted on 5/8/16 at 4:36 pm to anc
Posted on 5/8/16 at 4:49 pm to anc
quote:
The Hornets went 24-0 in the SWAC
Don't care what league you play in, that's impressive
Posted on 5/8/16 at 4:57 pm to anc
In my estimation, we need at least 6 more regular season wins (8 games to go) and maybe 1 win in the SEC tournament
Posted on 5/8/16 at 5:01 pm to anc
LSU's seeding is always rounded down in a bad year.
I expect LSU will be shipped to a made for TV regional at Miami or Michigan.
I expect LSU will be shipped to a made for TV regional at Miami or Michigan.
Posted on 5/8/16 at 5:08 pm to tylerdurden24
quote:With that rpi, you must finish 1 game over .500. (overall record)
In my estimation, we need at least 6 more regular season wins (8 games to go) and maybe 1 win in the SEC tournament
This post was edited on 5/8/16 at 5:29 pm
Posted on 5/8/16 at 5:31 pm to anc
Ole miss will be locked into a nat seed after the Sec tournament...sit back and watch
Posted on 5/8/16 at 5:40 pm to El Batnaros
Better play better than you did today at Georgia.
Posted on 5/8/16 at 5:41 pm to El Batnaros
Posted on 5/8/16 at 5:54 pm to El Batnaros
quote:
Ole miss will be locked into a nat seed after the Sec tournament...sit back and watch
The problem Ole Miss has isn't SEC record, it isn't RPI, its the NCAA. A single conference has never had four national seeds. That seems to be very possible this year. But five is not going to happen under any circumstance. The ACC has three locks and Texas Tech is all but a lock. South Carolina and Mississippi State are also competing for a national seed. Ole Miss is 1-6 against those two teams. Going to be a tough sell.
If State or South Carolina were to fall down the stretch, Ole Miss can take a national seed away from one of them, but if USC and MSU hold serve, Ole Miss cannot get a national seed over either one.
This post was edited on 5/8/16 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 5/8/16 at 5:56 pm to Diamondawg
quote:
With that rpi, you must finish 1 game over .500. (overall record)
If we win 6 of the next 8 in regular season, that'd put us at 29-27 on the year overall. Ideally, we would need 7 wins to keep us ahead after a 2 and out in the SEC tournament
Posted on 5/8/16 at 5:58 pm to anc
I bet we win the Sec tournament and get that thing locked on up....
Posted on 5/8/16 at 6:03 pm to El Batnaros
quote:
I bet we win the Sec tournament and get that thing locked on up....
I'd take that bet, but I'd be cheating because National seeds are announced before SEC Tournament is finished.
Look, Im not saying Ole Miss isn't deserving, but the SEC isn't getting five national seeds.
Florida is the consensus best team in the nation
MSU has more Top 50 wins than anyone and a 3-1 record against Ole Miss.
South Carolina swept Ole Miss in Oxford.
I think A&M has locked it up, but if they were to go 1-2 against South Carolina and Ole Miss swept them in College Station, it would be interesting. You'd probably have to pass State in the standings as well. They have the two worst teams in the league the last two weeks. Going to take an epic collapse when they have a one game lead and the tiebreaker.
This post was edited on 5/8/16 at 6:05 pm
Posted on 5/8/16 at 6:18 pm to anc
quote:??
.I'd take that bet, but I'd be cheating because National seeds are announced before SEC Tournament is finished.
Posted on 5/8/16 at 6:23 pm to El Batnaros
The only way we get a national seed is if the teams ahead of us stumble. Our schedule isn't a cake walk the rest of the way either so I don't think we need to worry about seeding. Just keep winning and worry about where we fall at the end of the year.
Posted on 5/8/16 at 6:27 pm to anc
I think we need 2 more SEC wins. Maybe even 3. And that's not a given playing @ USCe and hosting Ole Miss.
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