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Clemson will be Bama's toughest Test
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:36 pm
As good as Alabama has been this season, have they really been tested by a strong offense?
Bama comes into the Title Game having faced 6 teams who were ranked in the Top 25 at the end of the year:
#3 Michigan State
#12 Ole Miss
#19 Florida
#20 LSU
#23 Tennessee
#23 (AP) Wisconsin
Any team not in the Top 25 at the end of the regular season doesn't have the talent to beat Bama.
Let's take those 6 teams and see how well Bama matched up against them:
**NOTE: All statistics from this season are only those that were produced during games against Power 5 opponents
FLORIDA
The Gators rank #96 in Total O and #86 In Total O/Play. Statistically speaking, this was by far the weakest offense Bama faced this season.
Not only that, but Florida is #105 out 128 teams in terms of pace of play.
Florida's O is not built to compete with Alabama. They never had a shot.
WISCONSIN
Wisconsin ranks #76 in Total O and #77 in Total O/Play. These numbers are only marginally better than Florida's.
MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan State ranks #54 in Total O and #57 in Total O/Play. Michigan State doesn't have the type of explosive offense that is needed to compete with Bama.
TENNESSEE
Tennessee ranks #45 in Total O and #53 in Total O/Play.
UT's offense probably isn't quite productive enough to beat Bama, but its not bad either. The Vols also run at a nice pace (74.7 plays/game) which puts them in the Top 40 in this statistic.
While all of those statistics are not bad, they aren't great either. It's probably going to take a Top 25 offense to beat Bama, and unfortunately for the Vols, Top 50 just isn't quite good enough. The lack of balance also hurts Tennessee. They have the #21 Rush O, but just the #78 Pass O... giving them a balance ranking of #92 out of 128 teams.
All this points to UT having the type of offense to play Bama well... but just not well enough. Which is exactly what happened this year.
LSU
LSU ranks #32 in Total O and #15 in Total O/Play. Finally a great offense, right?
While LSU's total offensive numbers look impressive at first glance, any SEC fan who regularly watched the Tigers knows that LSU has some major flaws on offense... most notably their passing game.
While LSU ranks #8 in rushing offense, they are just #87 in Passing Offense. If you take the difference of those rankings you'll find that LSU ranks #105 out 128 teams in terms of offensive balance.
It doesn't matter if you have Leonard Fournette on offense, if there is little to no threat of a passing attack, you aren't going to beat Bama.
LSU's offense played right into Bama's strengths. And therefore, they never really had a shot.
OLE MISS
And finally Ole Miss. Ole Miss ranks #14 in Total O and #18 in Total O/Play. While they aren't great in terms of balance (#12 in Passing O and #46 in Rushing O), its good enough to put them #65 in terms of Balance, which is basically right in the middle for all FBS. Not a detriment.
But as described above, if you are going to be unbalanced, it would be better to have a stronger passing attack when facing Alabama.
Ole Miss also moves at a very fast pace (75.0 plays/game), which is good enough for #17 nationally.
What a coincidence that the team with by far the best offense was the team that not only gave Alabama problems, but beat them straight up in Tuscaloosa.
Before anyone says "But 5 turnovers", please take a step back and realize that 5 turnovers were not the only problem. The Rebels put up 43 points and averaged an astounding 6.7 yards per play against Alabama's defense. Turnovers had nothing to do with that 6.7 yards per play. I imagine its extremely rare for any team to win a game when they give up 6.7 yards every play. Alabama found that out the hard way.
CONCLUSION
The formula is pretty simple: Teams with very balanced, productive offenses, who run at a fast pace are the teams that give Bama the most problems.
Florida simply had a bad offense. Wisconsin's was also well below average. Michigan State's was average at best. LSU's offense was completely one-dimensional. Tennessee's was okay, maybe good, but certainly not great. And Ole Miss' offense is the best offense Bama faced all season.
I think its pretty obvious who is best suited to give Bama a good game.
Now take a look at Bama's Top 25 opponents in 2015 and how they rank in terms of Pace of Play:
#37 Ole Miss (75.0 plays/game)
#40 Tennessee (74.7 plays/game)
#52 Michigan State (72.8 plays/game)
#57 Wisconsin (71.8 plays/game)
#92 LSU (65.6 plays/game)
#105 Florida (64.7 plays/game)
Bama has not faced many teams this season that play well at a fast pace. I find it interesting that the two fastest offenses Bama faced are the two teams that played Bama the closest all season.
Just an FYI. Clemson ranks #12 in pace of play, as they run 82.1 plays/game on average. That's fast.
Of course the other component is Defense. You need some semblance of defense to play Bama effectively.
A team like Texas Tech may have a great offense... but if you defense splits like butter through a hot knife, its a waste of Bama's time.
Not only that, but a defense needs to be particulary stout at stopping the run... since Bama is more of a run-oriented type of offense.
So let's put it all together. The formula for being able to beat Bama is something like this:
Top 25 Offense in terms of Total Yards/Play
Top 70 Offense in terms of Pace
Top 70 Offense in terms of Balance
Top 40 Defense in terms of Total Defense/Play
Top 40 Defense in terms of Rushing Defense/Play
**Pace and Balance are great, but you dont' necessarily have to lead the nation in either category. As long as a team is not severely unbalananced (like Navy in terms of Rushing... Washington State in terms of Passing... or just any other team not quite as extreme but very unbalanced like LSU). Also, the faster the pace, the better. But you don't HAVE to run a fast pace to beat Bama. It just helps if you have the ability to go up-tempo when the right time in the game comes around. A team like Missouri who ranks #123 in terms of pace and who runs just 60 plays/game is probably not going to be able to go up-tempo vs. Bama if they wanted to.
Which teams in all of America fit the above criteria? Just 3 teams:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Ole Miss
One has already defeated Bama this year. The other two played each other last week for the shot to play Bama for the Championship.
Here's how they all shake out in each category:
Total O/Play
#12 Clemson
#13 Oklahoma
#18 Ole Miss
Pace
#12 Clemson
#26 Oklahoma
#37 Ole Miss
Balance
#13 Clemson
#22 Oklahoma
#65 Ole Miss
Total D/Play
#12 Oklahoma
#13 Clemson
#25 Ole Miss
Total Run D/Play
#20 Ole Miss
#22 Clemson
#29 Oklahoma
Anyone who thinks Bama will have an easy time with Clemson is crazy.
It's no coincidence that Ole Miss is the only team in the SEC to defeat Alabama the last two years... yet they've done it not once, but TWICE. Ole Miss is built to give Bama trouble. And they have beaten them in two straight meetings.
Clemson is built like Ole Miss. Yet they are statistically even more suited to give Bama trouble than the Rebels.
Clemson will be Bama's toughest test of the season. Bama has not really been challenged this season, with the exception of Ole Miss.
Bama comes into the Title Game having faced 6 teams who were ranked in the Top 25 at the end of the year:
#3 Michigan State
#12 Ole Miss
#19 Florida
#20 LSU
#23 Tennessee
#23 (AP) Wisconsin
Any team not in the Top 25 at the end of the regular season doesn't have the talent to beat Bama.
Let's take those 6 teams and see how well Bama matched up against them:
**NOTE: All statistics from this season are only those that were produced during games against Power 5 opponents
FLORIDA
The Gators rank #96 in Total O and #86 In Total O/Play. Statistically speaking, this was by far the weakest offense Bama faced this season.
Not only that, but Florida is #105 out 128 teams in terms of pace of play.
Florida's O is not built to compete with Alabama. They never had a shot.
WISCONSIN
Wisconsin ranks #76 in Total O and #77 in Total O/Play. These numbers are only marginally better than Florida's.
MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan State ranks #54 in Total O and #57 in Total O/Play. Michigan State doesn't have the type of explosive offense that is needed to compete with Bama.
TENNESSEE
Tennessee ranks #45 in Total O and #53 in Total O/Play.
UT's offense probably isn't quite productive enough to beat Bama, but its not bad either. The Vols also run at a nice pace (74.7 plays/game) which puts them in the Top 40 in this statistic.
While all of those statistics are not bad, they aren't great either. It's probably going to take a Top 25 offense to beat Bama, and unfortunately for the Vols, Top 50 just isn't quite good enough. The lack of balance also hurts Tennessee. They have the #21 Rush O, but just the #78 Pass O... giving them a balance ranking of #92 out of 128 teams.
All this points to UT having the type of offense to play Bama well... but just not well enough. Which is exactly what happened this year.
LSU
LSU ranks #32 in Total O and #15 in Total O/Play. Finally a great offense, right?
While LSU's total offensive numbers look impressive at first glance, any SEC fan who regularly watched the Tigers knows that LSU has some major flaws on offense... most notably their passing game.
While LSU ranks #8 in rushing offense, they are just #87 in Passing Offense. If you take the difference of those rankings you'll find that LSU ranks #105 out 128 teams in terms of offensive balance.
It doesn't matter if you have Leonard Fournette on offense, if there is little to no threat of a passing attack, you aren't going to beat Bama.
LSU's offense played right into Bama's strengths. And therefore, they never really had a shot.
OLE MISS
And finally Ole Miss. Ole Miss ranks #14 in Total O and #18 in Total O/Play. While they aren't great in terms of balance (#12 in Passing O and #46 in Rushing O), its good enough to put them #65 in terms of Balance, which is basically right in the middle for all FBS. Not a detriment.
But as described above, if you are going to be unbalanced, it would be better to have a stronger passing attack when facing Alabama.
Ole Miss also moves at a very fast pace (75.0 plays/game), which is good enough for #17 nationally.
What a coincidence that the team with by far the best offense was the team that not only gave Alabama problems, but beat them straight up in Tuscaloosa.
Before anyone says "But 5 turnovers", please take a step back and realize that 5 turnovers were not the only problem. The Rebels put up 43 points and averaged an astounding 6.7 yards per play against Alabama's defense. Turnovers had nothing to do with that 6.7 yards per play. I imagine its extremely rare for any team to win a game when they give up 6.7 yards every play. Alabama found that out the hard way.
CONCLUSION
The formula is pretty simple: Teams with very balanced, productive offenses, who run at a fast pace are the teams that give Bama the most problems.
Florida simply had a bad offense. Wisconsin's was also well below average. Michigan State's was average at best. LSU's offense was completely one-dimensional. Tennessee's was okay, maybe good, but certainly not great. And Ole Miss' offense is the best offense Bama faced all season.
I think its pretty obvious who is best suited to give Bama a good game.
Now take a look at Bama's Top 25 opponents in 2015 and how they rank in terms of Pace of Play:
#37 Ole Miss (75.0 plays/game)
#40 Tennessee (74.7 plays/game)
#52 Michigan State (72.8 plays/game)
#57 Wisconsin (71.8 plays/game)
#92 LSU (65.6 plays/game)
#105 Florida (64.7 plays/game)
Bama has not faced many teams this season that play well at a fast pace. I find it interesting that the two fastest offenses Bama faced are the two teams that played Bama the closest all season.
Just an FYI. Clemson ranks #12 in pace of play, as they run 82.1 plays/game on average. That's fast.
Of course the other component is Defense. You need some semblance of defense to play Bama effectively.
A team like Texas Tech may have a great offense... but if you defense splits like butter through a hot knife, its a waste of Bama's time.
Not only that, but a defense needs to be particulary stout at stopping the run... since Bama is more of a run-oriented type of offense.
So let's put it all together. The formula for being able to beat Bama is something like this:
Top 25 Offense in terms of Total Yards/Play
Top 70 Offense in terms of Pace
Top 70 Offense in terms of Balance
Top 40 Defense in terms of Total Defense/Play
Top 40 Defense in terms of Rushing Defense/Play
**Pace and Balance are great, but you dont' necessarily have to lead the nation in either category. As long as a team is not severely unbalananced (like Navy in terms of Rushing... Washington State in terms of Passing... or just any other team not quite as extreme but very unbalanced like LSU). Also, the faster the pace, the better. But you don't HAVE to run a fast pace to beat Bama. It just helps if you have the ability to go up-tempo when the right time in the game comes around. A team like Missouri who ranks #123 in terms of pace and who runs just 60 plays/game is probably not going to be able to go up-tempo vs. Bama if they wanted to.
Which teams in all of America fit the above criteria? Just 3 teams:
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Ole Miss
One has already defeated Bama this year. The other two played each other last week for the shot to play Bama for the Championship.
Here's how they all shake out in each category:
Total O/Play
#12 Clemson
#13 Oklahoma
#18 Ole Miss
Pace
#12 Clemson
#26 Oklahoma
#37 Ole Miss
Balance
#13 Clemson
#22 Oklahoma
#65 Ole Miss
Total D/Play
#12 Oklahoma
#13 Clemson
#25 Ole Miss
Total Run D/Play
#20 Ole Miss
#22 Clemson
#29 Oklahoma
Anyone who thinks Bama will have an easy time with Clemson is crazy.
It's no coincidence that Ole Miss is the only team in the SEC to defeat Alabama the last two years... yet they've done it not once, but TWICE. Ole Miss is built to give Bama trouble. And they have beaten them in two straight meetings.
Clemson is built like Ole Miss. Yet they are statistically even more suited to give Bama trouble than the Rebels.
Clemson will be Bama's toughest test of the season. Bama has not really been challenged this season, with the exception of Ole Miss.
43
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:38 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:39 pm to BHMKyle
I didn't read all of that, but I predict Alabama by 20+
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:39 pm to piggilicious
quote:
Clemson will be Bama's toughest test of the season.
I agree. They are the most balanced team we have played and the most athletic and well suited to cause us problems on defense. We will have to play well to win.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:40 pm to BHMKyle
I mean, isn't that how the national championship is supposed to work?
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:40 pm to BHMKyle
I wouldn't be proud of a team that Florida and Tennessee both beat.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:40 pm to BHMKyle
Wow, this was laided out amazingly. Really changed my perspective.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:41 pm to piggilicious
What the OP needs to realize is that 95% of the people on this board do not have the requisite attention span to make it through that long of a post.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:43 pm to BHMKyle
Now do the same for Clemson to show how bad all the bums they faced.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:47 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Clemson is built like Ole Miss. Yet they are statistically even more suited to give Bama trouble than the Rebels.
So they are statistically suited to somehow cause us to make unforced errors, and are great at fluke/illegal plays? Sweet.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:48 pm to Tennessee Jed
I actually did read all of it, decent read.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:49 pm to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
I mean, isn't that how the national championship is supposed to work?
Not in the past when Bama has played in the big game.
Colt McCoy-less Texas team in 2009
Notre Dame in 2012 (worst MNC Game participant in 2 decades)
And in 2011, Bama got to play a team it had already played.
I'd say this is actually a new concept for Bama under Saban.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:54 pm to BHMKyle
quote:...So I'm gonna assume that you're making a large wager on Clemson and taking the 7 points then....right?
It's no coincidence that Ole Miss is the only team in the SEC to defeat Alabama the last two years... yet they've done it not once, but TWICE. Ole Miss is built to give Bama trouble. And they have beaten them in two straight meetings.
Clemson is built like Ole Miss. Yet they are statistically even more suited to give Bama trouble than the Rebels.
Clemson will be Bama's toughest test of the season. Bama has not really been challenged this season, with the exception of Ole Miss.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:58 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Notre Dame in 2012 (worst MNC Game participant in 2 decades)
Well, that isn't true.
Per SRS, the worst runners since 1998
2007 Ohio State - 14.84 (#9)
2001 Nebraska - 16.48 (#6)
2012 Notre Dame - 16.98 (#6)
1999 Virginia Tech - 18.66 (#4)
2006 Ohio State - 18.76 (#5)
2013 Auburn - 18.80 (#6)
The best runners up since 1998
2005 USC - 24.57 (#2)
2008 Oklahoma - 24.79 (#2)
2011 LSU - 24.27 (#2)
quote:
And in 2011, Bama got to play a team it had already played.
LOL, they "got" to play the best non-title team since 2002 Miami.
This post was edited on 1/6/16 at 4:59 pm
Posted on 1/6/16 at 4:59 pm to coachcrisp
Very good read
Posted on 1/6/16 at 5:00 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 1/6/16 at 5:00 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Clemson will be Bama's toughest Test
the undefeated #1 team in the country in the national title game will be Alabama's toughest test?
Posted on 1/6/16 at 5:02 pm to BHMKyle
Texas had Colt to start the game, not our fault he doesn't drink enough milk. You haave to look at perception going in to the game not on the backside. I'll give you 2012 - but 2011, going in to the game, the rematch was our toughest test as a more experienced team. 2009 you have an argument for Florida being better than Texas I suppose, but the flip side is also a valid opinion.
This post was edited on 1/6/16 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 1/6/16 at 5:03 pm to MontyFranklyn
quote:
Now do the same for Clemson to show how bad all the bums they faced.
Actually, statistically speaking, Clemson has played some tougher tests than Bama.
**Below Offense and Defense Stats are at the "per Play" level and are stats compiled only against Power 5 competition:
Top 25 Offenses faced by Clemson (4):
#1 North Carolina
#3 Notre Dame
#13 Oklahoma
#20 Florida State
Top 25 Offenses faced by Alabama (4):
#15 LSU
#17 Arkansas
#18 Ole Miss
#25 Mississippi State
Top 25 Defenses faced by Clemson (4):
#5 Boston College
#12 Oklahoma
#16 Florida State
#18 Louisville
Top 25 Defenses faced by Alabama (4)
#8 Wisconsin
#18 Florida
#22 Georgia
#25 Ole Miss
Teams with both Top 25 Offenses and Defenses faced by Clemson (2):
Oklahoma
Florida State
Teams with both Top 25 Offenses and Defenses faced by Alabama (1):
Ole Miss
Bama has faced one team with both a Top 25 offense and a Top 25 Defense. And they lost that game.
Clemson has faced two such teams and beat them both.
Posted on 1/6/16 at 5:10 pm to BHMKyle
Best combos Alabama has played by S&P Efficiency rankings
Ole Miss : Offense #9, Defense #21
Michigan State : Offense #27, Defense #12
LSU : Offense #12, Defense #27
Mississippi State : Offense #16, Defense #37
Tennessee : Offense #42, Defense #18
Best combos Clemson has played
Oklahoma : Offense #7, Defense #16
Florida State : Offense #21, Defense #10
Notre Dame : Offense #8, Defense #35
Louisville : Offense #49, Defense #23
Appy State : Offense #46, Defense #43
North Carolina : Offense #17, Defense #67
Ole Miss : Offense #9, Defense #21
Michigan State : Offense #27, Defense #12
LSU : Offense #12, Defense #27
Mississippi State : Offense #16, Defense #37
Tennessee : Offense #42, Defense #18
Best combos Clemson has played
Oklahoma : Offense #7, Defense #16
Florida State : Offense #21, Defense #10
Notre Dame : Offense #8, Defense #35
Louisville : Offense #49, Defense #23
Appy State : Offense #46, Defense #43
North Carolina : Offense #17, Defense #67
This post was edited on 1/6/16 at 5:14 pm
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