Clemson vs. Alabama this year vs. last year

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The best teams in the country. Gonna be a bloodbath

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I think Clemson has been clearly the #2 best overall program the past 5 years behind Alabama.

I know OSU and FSU won titles, but Clemson has the consistency edge.

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In your opinion does the fact that the SEC wasn't very good this year effect Alabama's improvement in stats? Imagine if you guys played the Gamecocks.

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Nope. As a whole the conference is performing slightly better offensively than it did last year. Last year there were 7 teams above 400 yards per game, this year there are 10.

And defensively teams like LSU, Florida and Auburn all improved.

All signs keep pointing to a Bama win.

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Makes sense. Bama seems better than they were last year and Clemson seems worse. Bama by 14-17

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The biggest issue, is that last year I think Clemson got SOME success running the ball, but this year, with how their running game has taken an extreme nosedive, I don't believe they'll have the balance needed to beat Alabama.

More to that point, here's how Clemson has done against top 30 rush defenses:

#8 North Carolina State- 39 carries, 117 yards, 3.0 ypc, 7 point win

#16 Pittsburgh- 25 carries, 50 yards, 2.0 ypa, 1 point loss

#17 Troy- 32 carries, 122 yards, 3.8 ypc, 6 point win

#22 FSU- 38 carries, 133 yards, 3.5 ypc, 3 point win

#27 Auburn- 44 carries, 151 yards, 3.4 ypc, 6 point win


Now they did alright against two others:
#20 Ohio State - 48 carries, 205 yards, 4.3 ypc, 31 point win
#12 Louisville- 31 carries, 201 yards, 6.5 ypc, 6 point win

But in almost every game they've faced a top 30 rushing defense (with the exception of Ohio State), they have struggled to move the ball AND the game has been extremely close.

We didn't win 7 games by one score or less. Regardless of teams played, that's a huge factor.

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Just means they will be throwing the hell out of the ball and that style offense is not Bamas best to defend against.

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That's true, and if Dabo is smart that's what he'll do. Abandon the run early, chuck it up. Problem with that is, it also leads to a frickton of turnovers, and all it takes is one interception for a TD and the game is over. People seem to think since Ole Miss kept it close with an onside kick and two last minute TDs that any team can run the same type of offense and succeed. They also forget that Alabama scored three non offensive touchdowns that game, in part because Ole Miss abandoned ball control early.

Exactly. I've said it 100 times this season.

Go ahead and chunk the ball around the yard. You'll get yours. And Alabama will get theirs...and break the hell out of you.

As I mentioned in my breakdown a few days ago, Bama will wear down Clemson. Stats below give good glimpse as to why.

Bama is better at moving the chains when there are at least 5 yards for a 1st down. (see opportunity rate)
When it's 3rd and short or 4th and short, Bama is able to move the chains much more often than Clemson. (see power success rate)
Despite being predicated on the run, with teams loading the box to stop the run, Bama and Clemson get stuffed at almost the same rate.
Despite the apparent differences in talent and experience between Watson and Hurts, the unadjusted sack rates would yield roughly 1 sack difference in the game between the two, if that, since Clemson will throw more often than Bama. This is because Bama has done a very good job coaching Hurts this year.

All of Boulware's homo butt obsession is not going to stop Bo or the other Bama RBs. Bama will reset the LOS throughout the game and control TOP.

OLine Stats

Stats are: Raw / Rank

Run-blocking stats

Adjusted Line Yards: One of only two opponent-adjusted numbers on the page, this aligns with the ALY figure FO tracks for the NFL and is presented on a scale in which 100.0 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.

Bama 115 / 13
Clemson 125 / 4

Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry: The raw, unadjusted per-carry line yardage for a team on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer).

Bama 3.21 / 31
Clemson 3.10 / 50

Passing Downs Line Yards per Carry: The same unadjusted averages for rushing on passing downs.

Bama 3.40 / 53
Clemson 3.67 / 25

Opportunity Rate: The percentage of carries (when five yards are available) that gain at least five yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak.

Bama 45.7% / 6
Clemson 41.0% / 50

Power Success Rate: This is the same as on the pro side -- percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.

Bama 75% / 20
Clemson 62.9% / 95

Stuff Rate: Same as STUFFED on the pro side -- percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.

Bama 19.9% / 88
Clemson 17.6% / 47

Pass-blocking stats

Adjusted Sack Rate: An opponent-adjusted version of a team's sack rate -- sacks divided by (sacks plus passes), presented on a scale in which 100 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad.

Bama 104 / 54
Clemson 239.8 / 4

Standard Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for standard downs pass attempts.

Bama 6.9% / 105
Clemson 3.1% / 26

Passing Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for passing downs pass attempts.

Bama 5.5% / 29
Clemson 2.3% / 2


ETA: clarification 'despite Bama's offense being predicated on the run'