Started By
Message
Bill Connelly's Projected S&P Rankings for 2016
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:32 am
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:32 am
2016 Projects - S&P
Overall Top 25
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida State
6. Michigan
7. Ole Miss
8. USC
9. Tennessee
10. Washington
11. Notre Dame
12. UCLA
13. Baylor
14. Ohio State
15. Georgia
16. Stanford
17. Arkansas
18. Oregon
19. Florida
20. Louisville
21. Mississippi State
22. Michigan State
23. Oklahoma State
24. Auburn
25. Texas A&M
SEC WEST
1. Alabama
2. LSU
7. Ole Miss
17. Arkansas
21. Mississippi State
24. Auburn
25. Texas A&M
SEC EAST
9. Tennessee
15. Georgia
19. Florida
47. Missouri
63. South Carolina
69. Vanderbilt
83. Kentucky
quote:
There are three primary ingredients: a team's returning production, its recent history and its two-year recruiting rankings.
This answers three key questions: How well has a team done recently? What talent has it lost from last year? And how good are the players replacing the lost talent?
To come up with preliminary projections, I create projected S&P+ ratings based on each factor -- recruiting impact, returning production*, and recent history -- and then blend them together. The projection based on returning production gets the heaviest weight, followed by recruiting, then recent history, which only carries a little bit of weight.
Overall Top 25
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida State
6. Michigan
7. Ole Miss
8. USC
9. Tennessee
10. Washington
11. Notre Dame
12. UCLA
13. Baylor
14. Ohio State
15. Georgia
16. Stanford
17. Arkansas
18. Oregon
19. Florida
20. Louisville
21. Mississippi State
22. Michigan State
23. Oklahoma State
24. Auburn
25. Texas A&M
SEC WEST
1. Alabama
2. LSU
7. Ole Miss
17. Arkansas
21. Mississippi State
24. Auburn
25. Texas A&M
SEC EAST
9. Tennessee
15. Georgia
19. Florida
47. Missouri
63. South Carolina
69. Vanderbilt
83. Kentucky
11
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:34 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
9. Tennessee
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:34 am to SummerOfGeorge
Looks good. Bill Connelly knows his stuff.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:35 am to BarkRuffalo
Why is that so funny? They finished ranked 22nd last year and return almost all of their roster.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
The whole west in top 25? Impressive
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
Factor in coaching and that list looks a little different.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:36 am to SummerOfGeorge
Water is wet. East is down.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
The entire SECw in the top 25. 3 in the top 7. Damnit.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:40 am to Emanonion
Final Rankings - 2015
SEC Teams
1. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
9. LSU
15. Arkansas
16. Mississippi State
18. Florida
22. Tennessee
32. Georgia
35. Auburn
42. Texas A&M
83. Vanderbilt
85. Missouri
88. South Carolina
95. Kentucky
SEC Teams
1. Alabama
5. Ole Miss
9. LSU
15. Arkansas
16. Mississippi State
18. Florida
22. Tennessee
32. Georgia
35. Auburn
42. Texas A&M
83. Vanderbilt
85. Missouri
88. South Carolina
95. Kentucky
This post was edited on 7/29/16 at 11:40 am
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:40 am to Emanonion
SEC West is THE TOUGHEST division in CFB
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:45 am to Emanonion
8 games against teams in his top 25. If we win 9+ this year we earneed them.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:47 am to Emanonion
quote:
8 games against teams in his top 25. If we win 9+ this year we earneed them.
Yea - same
@ #2 LSU
@ #7 Ole Miss
N #8 USC
@ #9 Tennessee
@ #17 Arkansas
vs #21 Miss St
vs #24 Auburn
vs #25 Texas A&M
vs #45 Western Kentucky
4 games vs Top 10. 0 of those games at home. Yeesh.
This post was edited on 7/29/16 at 11:49 am
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:53 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
then recent history, which only carries a little bit of weight.
Now it makes sense that Arkansas, aTm, and Auburn snuck in the top 25
Posted on 7/29/16 at 11:57 am to ATLdawg25
quote:
Now it makes sense that Arkansas, aTm, and Auburn snuck in the top 25
Yep.
Breakdown of Auburn's 3 rankings
Past Performance - #23
Returning Production - #33
Recruiting - #4
Breakdown of Arkansas's 3 rankings
Past Performance - #21
Returning Talent - #13
Recruiting - #25
Breakdown of Texas A&M's 3 rankings
Past Performance - #11
Returning Talent - #40
Recruiting - #13
Breakdown of Mississippi State's 3 rankings
Past Performance - #24
Returning Talent - #20
Recruiting - #23
This post was edited on 7/29/16 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 7/29/16 at 12:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Breakdown of Arkansas's 3 rankings
Past Performance - #21
Returning Talent - #73
Recruiting - #29
If returning talent is weighted the heaviest, how did Arkansas even sniff the top 25? Am I missing something?
Posted on 7/29/16 at 12:05 pm to ATLdawg25
quote:
If returning talent is weighted the heaviest, how did Arkansas even sniff the top 25? Am I missing something?
That is actually "change in PPG based on gain/loss of players". Sorry. It is supposed to show who should get better and who will get worse.
It isn't the actual ranking of returning talent.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 12:25 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I want us to be stout and I think we are a top 20 team, easy. But top 10 is pushing it after losing the talent we did along with the NCAA distraction. Freeze has proved me wrong before though.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 12:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:This is why we don't let sports writers pick the national champions anymore.
7. Ole Miss
8. USC
9. Tennessee
Posted on 7/29/16 at 12:40 pm to Emanonion
quote:
8 games against teams in his top 25
Alabama and Auburn both play 8 games in the top 25.
Bama plays 4 in the top ten; but I give the hardest to Auburn. They play 4 in the top ten, but they play 1, 2, & 3.
Posted on 7/29/16 at 12:44 pm to ATLdawg25
quote:
Breakdown of Arkansas's 3 rankings
Past Performance - #21
Returning Talent - #73
Recruiting - #29
If returning talent is weighted the heaviest, how did Arkansas even sniff the top 25? Am I missing something?
Nice try, changing our returning talent from #13 to #73
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News