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Bill Connelly SB Nation Previews : SEC (all teams added)
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:04 am
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:04 am
Links to all previews - Bill Connelly SBNation
Overall Rank
1. Alabama
4. LSU
9. Auburn
15. Florida
19. Texas A&M
20. Georgia
24. Tennessee
26. Ole Miss
30. Mississippi State
32. Arkansas
36. South Carolina
41. Kentucky
53. Missouri
63. Vanderbilt
Offense Projection
6. Alabama
14. LSU
15. Mississippi State
16. Ole Miss
18. Auburn
22. Missouri
26. Tennessee
29. Arkansas
33. Texas A&M
35. Kentucky
54. Georgia
55. Florida
63. South Carolina
70. Vanderbilt
Defense Projection
1. Alabama
2. Florida
7. LSU
11. Georgia
12. Auburn
24. Texas A&M
28. South Carolina
38. Tennessee
43. Vanderbilt
49. Ole Miss
51. Arkansas
64. Kentucky
65. Mississippi State
94. Missouri
Projected Wins
Alabama : 10.7
LSU : 8.9
Auburn : 8.3
Florida : 8.2
Georgia : 7.4
Tennessee : 7.1
Texas A&M : 7.0
Ole Miss : 6.9
Arkansas : 6.3
Missouri : 6.3
Kentucky : 6.2
Mississippi State : 6.0
South Carolina : 5.9
Vanderbilt : 5.0
Overall Rank
1. Alabama
4. LSU
9. Auburn
15. Florida
19. Texas A&M
20. Georgia
24. Tennessee
26. Ole Miss
30. Mississippi State
32. Arkansas
36. South Carolina
41. Kentucky
53. Missouri
63. Vanderbilt
Offense Projection
6. Alabama
14. LSU
15. Mississippi State
16. Ole Miss
18. Auburn
22. Missouri
26. Tennessee
29. Arkansas
33. Texas A&M
35. Kentucky
54. Georgia
55. Florida
63. South Carolina
70. Vanderbilt
Defense Projection
1. Alabama
2. Florida
7. LSU
11. Georgia
12. Auburn
24. Texas A&M
28. South Carolina
38. Tennessee
43. Vanderbilt
49. Ole Miss
51. Arkansas
64. Kentucky
65. Mississippi State
94. Missouri
Projected Wins
Alabama : 10.7
LSU : 8.9
Auburn : 8.3
Florida : 8.2
Georgia : 7.4
Tennessee : 7.1
Texas A&M : 7.0
Ole Miss : 6.9
Arkansas : 6.3
Missouri : 6.3
Kentucky : 6.2
Mississippi State : 6.0
South Carolina : 5.9
Vanderbilt : 5.0
This post was edited on 8/17/17 at 11:41 am
15
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:06 am to SummerOfGeorge
[entering data into spreadsheet to make up shite and get paid]
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:09 am to I-H8-BAMA
quote:
Why no Bama, LSU?
The previews are released 1 a day. I linked them above. It's pretty good analysis for each team (and all 130 D1 if you have 10 hours).
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:19 am to SummerOfGeorge
Wow...15. Was not expecting that. If Grantham can put out an average defense it may turn out to be a pretty good season.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:20 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Defense Projection
2. Florida
How in the monkey frick
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:22 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Ole Miss : 6.9
The SEC Rant says 2-10 tho...
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:22 am to SummerOfGeorge
Bill doing the Lord's work over at SB 
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:45 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
2. Florida
They'll be good. But I think this is a bit of a stretch
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:45 am to David Ricky
quote:
How in the monkey frick
Yea, don't quite understand that one. Between lost production, mediocre recruiting rankings (comparatively), I do wonder what brought their number up so high.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 11:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
For Auburn, year 2 of Kevin Steele is more interesting to me than the introduction of Stidham to the offense; nothing in his career suggested he'd improve Auburn's defense last year. This was Bill's (admittedly false) expectation of last year's Auburn defense:
By all indications the defense is still a very talented bunch, and I see them continuing as a good unit this year. I think a lot of that dreaded fight for 2nd place in the West hinges on how their defense plays out.
quote:
In his last two years as a coordinator, Steele's units have crumpled. In 2011 at Clemson, his Tiger defense plummeted from sixth in Def. S&P+ to 65th; in 2015 at LSU, the Tigers fell from ninth to 27th.
This ignores mountains of context, obviously. Still, it's hard to be inspired by Malzahn's latest coordinator change. He replaced Ellis Johnson with former Florida head coach Will Muschamp last fall, then took Steele from LSU when Muschamp took the South Carolina head coaching job. (LSU didn't appear to put up a ton of fight.)
By all indications the defense is still a very talented bunch, and I see them continuing as a good unit this year. I think a lot of that dreaded fight for 2nd place in the West hinges on how their defense plays out.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 12:11 pm to Eric Nies Grind Time
We are going to be better than most people are predicting. We will go into Bama 3-0. Bama will beat us but we will play them closer than expected imo.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 12:19 pm to Ancient Astronaut
quote:
We will go into Bama 3-0
Should be 3-0
Then you play 5 teams who beat you last year, scoring an average of 40 points/game. That's when the team packs it in and looks forward to transferring, imo
Posted on 8/15/17 at 12:39 pm to SummerOfGeorge
6.9 for Ole Miss is such a joke.
Fired and disgraced head coach
Completely new assistant coaching staff
Looming NCAA hammer
Athletic department in limbo
Awful defense
Unproven QB
Zero player morale
Yet with all that happening they are 2 games better than last year?
Keep dreaming
Fired and disgraced head coach
Completely new assistant coaching staff
Looming NCAA hammer
Athletic department in limbo
Awful defense
Unproven QB
Zero player morale
Yet with all that happening they are 2 games better than last year?
Keep dreaming
Posted on 8/15/17 at 12:44 pm to Ghost Hog
quote:
Yet with all that happening they are 2 games better than last year?
They swap FSU for Cal. They swap Florida for Kentucky.
USA, UTM, @ Cal, Vandy, ULL are all very winnable. Then you need 1-2 of Arky, @ Kentucky, A&M, @ State.
It's not crazy at all. I think they'll run out of gas, which these predictions do not have a variable for (and he readily admits it), but their first 22 could win 6 games.
This post was edited on 8/15/17 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 8/15/17 at 12:47 pm to Ghost Hog
The 6.9 is simply a summation of their win probabilities for each game this season. His stats predict a 2-6 SEC record, and the two wins are damn near toss-ups (4.7 pt favorite vs. Arkansas, 2.7 pt favorite @ Kentucky)
Posted on 8/15/17 at 12:49 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I can't wait the melt when they lose to Cal
Posted on 8/15/17 at 12:49 pm to Leonard
quote:
The 6.9 is simply a summation of their win probabilities for each game this season. His stats predict a 2-6 SEC record, and the two wins are damn near toss-ups (4.7 pt favorite vs. Arkansas, 2.7 pt favorite @ Kentucky)
It's not even worth explaining.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 12:50 pm to Ghost Hog
quote:
I can't wait the melt when they lose to Cal
Would it really incite a melt? It's basically a toss up given the trip out west.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 12:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I'm a masochist 
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