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Biggest Blowouts, Closest Matchups for the SEC in 2017 per ESPN FPI
Posted on 6/30/17 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 6/30/17 at 12:23 pm
In each matchup the first team listed is the favorite
Biggest Blowouts
(1) Alabama vs Arkansas - 93% chance of victory
(2) Alabama vs Ole Miss - 92% chance of victory
(3) Alabama @ Vanderbilt - 91% chance of victory
(4) Auburn vs Ole Miss - 89% chance of victory
(5) Auburn vs Mississippi St - 88% chance of victory
(6) Alabama @ Mississippi St - 87% chance of victory
(7) LSU vs Arkansas - 87% chance of victory
(8) Alabama vs Tennessee - 87% chance of victory
(9) Florida vs Vanderbilt - 84% chance of victory
(10) Georgia vs Missouri - 83% chance of victory
Closest Games
(1) Georgia @ Tennessee - 51% chance of victory
(2) Missouri vs South Carolina - 52% chance of victory
(3) Kentucky @ Vanderbilt - 52% chance of victory
(4) LSU vs Auburn - 53% chance of victory
(5) Georgia vs Florida - 53% chance of victory
(6) Texas A&M @ Ole Miss - 53% chance of victory
(7) Vanderbilt vs Missouri - 54% chance of victory
(8) Mississippi St vs Kentucky - 55% chance of victory
(9) Alabama @ Auburn - 56% chance of victory
(10) Arkansas vs Mississippi St - 57% chance of victory
Biggest Blowouts
(1) Alabama vs Arkansas - 93% chance of victory
(2) Alabama vs Ole Miss - 92% chance of victory
(3) Alabama @ Vanderbilt - 91% chance of victory
(4) Auburn vs Ole Miss - 89% chance of victory
(5) Auburn vs Mississippi St - 88% chance of victory
(6) Alabama @ Mississippi St - 87% chance of victory
(7) LSU vs Arkansas - 87% chance of victory
(8) Alabama vs Tennessee - 87% chance of victory
(9) Florida vs Vanderbilt - 84% chance of victory
(10) Georgia vs Missouri - 83% chance of victory
Closest Games
(1) Georgia @ Tennessee - 51% chance of victory
(2) Missouri vs South Carolina - 52% chance of victory
(3) Kentucky @ Vanderbilt - 52% chance of victory
(4) LSU vs Auburn - 53% chance of victory
(5) Georgia vs Florida - 53% chance of victory
(6) Texas A&M @ Ole Miss - 53% chance of victory
(7) Vanderbilt vs Missouri - 54% chance of victory
(8) Mississippi St vs Kentucky - 55% chance of victory
(9) Alabama @ Auburn - 56% chance of victory
(10) Arkansas vs Mississippi St - 57% chance of victory
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Posted on 6/30/17 at 12:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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Closest Games
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(9) Alabama @ Auburn - 56% chance of victory
Don't see that everyday. Alabama on the "closest games" list that is.
It appears to me Auburn is being slightly overvalued, but we'll see.
Posted on 6/30/17 at 12:30 pm to BHMKyle
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Don't see that everyday. Alabama on the "closest games" list that is.
There are generally 1-2 road games a year that Alabama is in that 3-7 pt favorite range to start the year. Last year it was Tennessee, and I think they were either underdogs or even with LSU.
This post was edited on 6/30/17 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 6/30/17 at 12:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Pretty impressive that Alabama is listed as a road favorite in 2 of the highest 6 blowout games.
Posted on 6/30/17 at 12:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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(1) Georgia @ Tennessee - 51% chance of victory
6 years in a row decided by 1 possession...here we go again
Posted on 6/30/17 at 12:52 pm to BHMKyle
Auburn may be overvalued a bit but the Iron bowl is usually a good game unless one team is having a terrible year. Even an average team can come out and play a superior rival close.
Posted on 6/30/17 at 12:53 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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(7) LSU vs Arkansas - 87% chance of victory
Yeah, no
Posted on 6/30/17 at 1:00 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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There are generally 1-2 road games a year that Alabama is in that 3-7 pt favorite range to start the year. Last year it was Tennessee, and I think they were either underdogs or even with LSU.
I never understood that last year. Road vs. home doesn't effect things nearly as much as schedule does and by the time that game rolled around everyone knew there was no chance in hell it would even be close.
This season we will probably play Bama better despite it being a road game because the schedule is a bit better for us and a bit harder on Bama. (No, not at all saying we will win).
Come to think of it... I'm not sure I remember a time when Home/Away mattered in TSIO. It's mattered for us in other games but never for TSIO - who has the streak and what the schedule is has always been more important from the games I remember. At least on our end. Is it any different for Bama?
Posted on 6/30/17 at 1:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Saban is worth so much more than he makes. He could literally go to any other SEC team and win a conference championship within 5 years- period.
I really can't believe he hasn't been offered $15,000,000+ a year by a rival.
I really can't believe he hasn't been offered $15,000,000+ a year by a rival.
Posted on 6/30/17 at 1:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Rival games are toss ups for me unless one team is just downright terrible
Posted on 6/30/17 at 1:06 pm to BurgTiger
He was offered 100 million and oil wells in Texas. He's a Bama man through and through. 
Posted on 6/30/17 at 1:10 pm to jsmoove
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Yeah, no
LSU won by 4 touchdowns last season in Fayetteville, so.
Posted on 6/30/17 at 1:14 pm to BurgTiger
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Saban is worth so much more than he makes. He could literally go to any other SEC team and win a conference championship within 5 years- period.
You're off by about 3 years buddy. He could get Vandy to the 'ship in 3 on name alone.
Posted on 6/30/17 at 1:57 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Surprised the USC vs. UT game isn't on the closest games list. Look at the games since 2012:
2016 USC 24 UT 21
2015 UT 27 USC 24
2014 UT 45 USC 42 (OT)
2013 UT 23 USC 21
2012 USC 38 UT 35
2016 USC 24 UT 21
2015 UT 27 USC 24
2014 UT 45 USC 42 (OT)
2013 UT 23 USC 21
2012 USC 38 UT 35
Posted on 6/30/17 at 2:15 pm to SCLibertarian
UT vs USC and UT vs UGA have been nailbiters for 5-6 years
Posted on 6/30/17 at 2:19 pm to Prof
The TSIO has got to be the streakiest rivalry in football. I've seen long streaked on both sides during my lifetime.
Posted on 6/30/17 at 3:06 pm to jsmoove
You haven't been paying attention
Posted on 6/30/17 at 3:20 pm to Swm323
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The TSIO has got to be the streakiest rivalry in football. I've seen long streaked on both sides during my lifetime.
I have too. I don't know of another like it that has been so consistently streaky. Hell the 'short' streaks are often 4-6 years in a row. It's weird as hell that way.
Posted on 6/30/17 at 3:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
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LSU won by 4 touchdowns last season in Fayetteville, so.
Depending on which week you got us (a good week or bad one) any team with a pulse could have blown us out by 4 touchdowns or gotten beat last year. We've swapped beating the tar out of each other in the other guy's stadium the last two years.
I give the edge to LSU this year, don't get me wrong, I think they have the better overall team. But I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Bert knocks the Bayou Bengals off in Baton Rouge.
Posted on 6/30/17 at 4:06 pm to FourThreeForty
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You're off by about 3 years buddy. He could get Vandy to the 'ship in 3 on name alone.
Nope. Only at Bama, LSU, Auburn, Florida, A&M, Tennessee, and Georgia
The rest, he would never sniff a championship. That's just the way it is. Sorry to hurt the feelings of the rest of the schools, but this day in age, the odds of any of them winning a national championship in football is slim to none with any coach.
Don't get me wrong, it's not that the other schools couldn't produce a good team. It's just extremely hard to run the SEC gauntlet and still have enough juice to win the playoff game and then the championship. You have to have several years of top 5 recruiting classes to get that and those other schools are just not going to pull that kind of talent consecutively.
This post was edited on 6/30/17 at 4:08 pm
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