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Basketball Power Rankings Going into Conference Season
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:08 pm
Even though there are still some big games left in the non-conference season, I think we have a solid understanding of the conference, even though some teams are still enigmas.
1) Kentucky -- Malik Monk is terrific. They have what looks like the best offense in the country right now. Defense is still a concern, but when you can drop in 100+ points a night, you're going to win a lot of games, especially in the SEC, where most of the other best teams are defensively-oriented.
2) Florida -- The OOC has been somewhat of a mixed bag, beating Seton Hall and Miami, and losing to Gonzaga, Duke, and FSU (on the road). This team needs Kasey Hill to play more consistently, but even still, there's no reason that this team shouldn't win 11+ SEC games and get a Top 7 or so seed into the tournament with what's looking like a terrific computer resume.
3) South Carolina -- Probably would be ranked ahead of Florida if it weren't for the uncertainty behind Thornwell's suspension. This team plays elite defense, but Thornwell is South Carolina's best scorer and rebounder. With him, they're a tourney lock and possibly more. Without him, they're a solid, upper-half SEC team still, but it'd be a shame if they missed out on what could be a special season for South Carolina basketball because Thornwell messed up.
4) Texas A&M -- They're 1-3 in resume games, and they're going to have to do some uphill sledding to make themselves comfortable on Selection Sunday. They do have the best frontcourt in the conference (probably even considering Kentucky), and DJ Hogg has asserted himself as a leader. They are really hurting at guard, though, with Gilder being the only guy who really looks like he belongs at this level (sorry, JC Hampton). Regardless, this team not making the dance would be a disappointment.
5) Arkansas -- Better computer resume thus far than A&M, but I'm still skeptical; I don't think Houston is as good as the computers are saying they are (a seemingly mediocre LSU beat the shite out of them), and there's not a real quality win to be found elsewhere. They have avoided bad losses, and they should be tough at home, of course. They need their frontcourt to help them out a bit more; Kingsley playing like the SEC POY candidate that he was expected to be could elevate this team to a tourney bid.
6) Georgia -- The search for a third offensive option outside of Maten and Frazier continues. They're going to leave the non-conference schedule without a real quality win, but like Arkansas, they've avoided bad losses, and their computer profile looks like it will be good enough for a nice SEC run to get them a bid. The bad news: they play Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina twice in SEC play. It's going to be tough for them to even go 9-9 with their conference schedule.
7) Ole Miss -- I don't know how to feel about this team. On one hand, they can put up a bunch of points, and everyone they put on the court is a decent threat offensively. On the other hand, they've struggled defensively, and have thus struggled to put lesser teams away after having solid leads on them. On one hand, Sebastian Saiz has played like an SEC POY candidate. On the other hand, while Deandre Burnett is averaging over 20 PPG, he's doing it to a 44.6 EFG%, and that's not going to help them beat good teams. Good news is that they've avoided bad losses (Middle Tennessee isn't a bad loss, although it being as big of a blowout as it was was embarrassing). But they don't have a signature win (St. Joe's, UMass, and Memphis are decent enough teams, but none are likely tourney teams). They need a solid SEC run. They're likely an NIT team.
8) Tennessee -- It's been surprising how competitive they've been. Losing by a possession at North Carolina, going to overtime against Oregon, not getting blown out by Gonzaga. The tough schedule that they've played should help them out in conference play. If there's a sleeper right now in the conference, it's them. This team of mostly freshman will be a tough out by the end of this year, and next year they'll be up there in preseason conference predictions.
9) LSU -- Outside of their blowout win over Houston, this team has been thoroughly mediocre. Their saving grace looks to be their computer profile, with an OOC RPI projected to be in the 40s. Their only losses have been to solid teams (Wichita State and VCU). I expect this team to be inconsistent and am not sure if they'll even make the NIT, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could go 11-7 and get a bid to the big tournament. They're the biggest enigma of a team in the entire conference right now.
10) Vanderbilt -- Playing as tough of a schedule as they've played with a new coach is tough. They've been competitive with some really good teams like Butler and Minnesota, and have shat the bed against others like Marquette and Middle Tennessee. This team still has some terrific, NBA talent with Kornet and Fisher-Davis, and if they can find some consistency defensively, they could make some noise. I don't know that the tournament is within realistic range with their record, but it's not totally out of the question.
11) Auburn -- Another enigma. Beat a solid Texas Tech. Lost to a godawful Boston College. Beats Coastal Carolina by 45 points, scoring 117 points in the process. Needs a buzzer beater to beat a similar Mercer team a few nights later. They have potential, and their computer profile isn't terrible, but I don't feel comfortable putting this team any higher. Sliding into the NIT wouldn't shock me, but I wouldn't bet on it either.
12) Alabama -- They've taken a step back in Avery's second season. 0-5 against likely Top 200 teams so far. It would take a miracle of an SEC season for them to even get NIT consideration at this point. The cavalry is coming next year, so it would be wise for Alabama fans to not get emotionally invested this season.
13) Mississippi State -- They're not good, but they're mostly freshman. Could be decent by year's end and better next year.
14) Mizzou -- They're just not good. Not much nice to say about them right now.
1) Kentucky -- Malik Monk is terrific. They have what looks like the best offense in the country right now. Defense is still a concern, but when you can drop in 100+ points a night, you're going to win a lot of games, especially in the SEC, where most of the other best teams are defensively-oriented.
2) Florida -- The OOC has been somewhat of a mixed bag, beating Seton Hall and Miami, and losing to Gonzaga, Duke, and FSU (on the road). This team needs Kasey Hill to play more consistently, but even still, there's no reason that this team shouldn't win 11+ SEC games and get a Top 7 or so seed into the tournament with what's looking like a terrific computer resume.
3) South Carolina -- Probably would be ranked ahead of Florida if it weren't for the uncertainty behind Thornwell's suspension. This team plays elite defense, but Thornwell is South Carolina's best scorer and rebounder. With him, they're a tourney lock and possibly more. Without him, they're a solid, upper-half SEC team still, but it'd be a shame if they missed out on what could be a special season for South Carolina basketball because Thornwell messed up.
4) Texas A&M -- They're 1-3 in resume games, and they're going to have to do some uphill sledding to make themselves comfortable on Selection Sunday. They do have the best frontcourt in the conference (probably even considering Kentucky), and DJ Hogg has asserted himself as a leader. They are really hurting at guard, though, with Gilder being the only guy who really looks like he belongs at this level (sorry, JC Hampton). Regardless, this team not making the dance would be a disappointment.
5) Arkansas -- Better computer resume thus far than A&M, but I'm still skeptical; I don't think Houston is as good as the computers are saying they are (a seemingly mediocre LSU beat the shite out of them), and there's not a real quality win to be found elsewhere. They have avoided bad losses, and they should be tough at home, of course. They need their frontcourt to help them out a bit more; Kingsley playing like the SEC POY candidate that he was expected to be could elevate this team to a tourney bid.
6) Georgia -- The search for a third offensive option outside of Maten and Frazier continues. They're going to leave the non-conference schedule without a real quality win, but like Arkansas, they've avoided bad losses, and their computer profile looks like it will be good enough for a nice SEC run to get them a bid. The bad news: they play Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina twice in SEC play. It's going to be tough for them to even go 9-9 with their conference schedule.
7) Ole Miss -- I don't know how to feel about this team. On one hand, they can put up a bunch of points, and everyone they put on the court is a decent threat offensively. On the other hand, they've struggled defensively, and have thus struggled to put lesser teams away after having solid leads on them. On one hand, Sebastian Saiz has played like an SEC POY candidate. On the other hand, while Deandre Burnett is averaging over 20 PPG, he's doing it to a 44.6 EFG%, and that's not going to help them beat good teams. Good news is that they've avoided bad losses (Middle Tennessee isn't a bad loss, although it being as big of a blowout as it was was embarrassing). But they don't have a signature win (St. Joe's, UMass, and Memphis are decent enough teams, but none are likely tourney teams). They need a solid SEC run. They're likely an NIT team.
8) Tennessee -- It's been surprising how competitive they've been. Losing by a possession at North Carolina, going to overtime against Oregon, not getting blown out by Gonzaga. The tough schedule that they've played should help them out in conference play. If there's a sleeper right now in the conference, it's them. This team of mostly freshman will be a tough out by the end of this year, and next year they'll be up there in preseason conference predictions.
9) LSU -- Outside of their blowout win over Houston, this team has been thoroughly mediocre. Their saving grace looks to be their computer profile, with an OOC RPI projected to be in the 40s. Their only losses have been to solid teams (Wichita State and VCU). I expect this team to be inconsistent and am not sure if they'll even make the NIT, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could go 11-7 and get a bid to the big tournament. They're the biggest enigma of a team in the entire conference right now.
10) Vanderbilt -- Playing as tough of a schedule as they've played with a new coach is tough. They've been competitive with some really good teams like Butler and Minnesota, and have shat the bed against others like Marquette and Middle Tennessee. This team still has some terrific, NBA talent with Kornet and Fisher-Davis, and if they can find some consistency defensively, they could make some noise. I don't know that the tournament is within realistic range with their record, but it's not totally out of the question.
11) Auburn -- Another enigma. Beat a solid Texas Tech. Lost to a godawful Boston College. Beats Coastal Carolina by 45 points, scoring 117 points in the process. Needs a buzzer beater to beat a similar Mercer team a few nights later. They have potential, and their computer profile isn't terrible, but I don't feel comfortable putting this team any higher. Sliding into the NIT wouldn't shock me, but I wouldn't bet on it either.
12) Alabama -- They've taken a step back in Avery's second season. 0-5 against likely Top 200 teams so far. It would take a miracle of an SEC season for them to even get NIT consideration at this point. The cavalry is coming next year, so it would be wise for Alabama fans to not get emotionally invested this season.
13) Mississippi State -- They're not good, but they're mostly freshman. Could be decent by year's end and better next year.
14) Mizzou -- They're just not good. Not much nice to say about them right now.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:21 pm to GatorsGators
I just hope the collective shittiness of the conference doesn't drag down our RPI.
But who am I kidding, it's inevitable.
But who am I kidding, it's inevitable.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:21 pm to GatorsGators
I have a feeling that Georgia and Auburn will be in a similar situation come selection Sunday and Auburn's loss to BC will spell their doom. Seriously, that was a horrible loss and they almost just put the nail in that coffin if it weren't for that buzzer beater.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:26 pm to gatorhata9
Arkansas is deep as hell. We won't have a big scorer but we'll have 5, 6, 7 in double figures. I think we've only had one player get 20+ this year because we're so balanced.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:26 pm to GatorsGators
Thornwell should, reportedly, be back in time for SEC play. We will then be ready to go in dry on all of our lessers.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:31 pm to ForeverGator
Our RPI should be fine. We play Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, and Vanderbilt twice. The first four will all definitely be Top 100 RPI teams and Vanderbilt should be as well.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:34 pm to GatorsGators
Florida fricking sucks. GTFO with that shite. Oh wait you have 3 or 4 "quality losses". Your coach sucks as well.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:40 pm to Gcockboi
You cocks are still so upset we told you that you wouldn't make the dance last season.
It's over. Get over it.
It's over. Get over it.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:50 pm to Gcockboi
quote:
Florida fricking sucks. GTFO with that shite. Oh wait you have 3 or 4 "quality losses". Your coach sucks as well.
We beat a "quality" Seton Hall team that South Carolina couldn't beat and a decent Miami team who's only lost to UF and Iowa State. Both on neutral courts.
More impressive than South Carolina's quality wins, honestly. Syracuse sucks this year. Michigan is a good win, but it was at home. UF hasn't played a home game yet this year.
Yeah, UF lost to Duke and Gonzaga and FSU on the road. I guess you can pretend like South Carolina would win any of those games.
You have a good team, but chill out a bit.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:52 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
Better computer resume thus far than A&M, but I'm still skeptical
I get the skepticism but we should be at least 4 at this point.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:55 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
11) Auburn -- Another enigma. Beat a solid Texas Tech. Lost to a godawful Boston College. Beats Coastal Carolina by 45 points, scoring 117 points in the process. Needs a buzzer beater to beat a similar Mercer team a few nights later. They have potential, and their computer profile isn't terrible, but I don't feel comfortable putting this team any higher. Sliding into the NIT wouldn't shock me, but I wouldn't bet on it either.
I do feel like if AU would have had Wiley on roster against Boston College, AU would not have lost nor been outrebounded by 17. I think this AU team improved a lot adding Wiley. There won't be such a glaring weakness in terms of height in the low post.
It's a pretty big deal adding a top-10 recruit to the roster, especially at the weakest position.
This post was edited on 12/19/16 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 12/19/16 at 1:56 pm to AUbagman
After the top 3, and order UF/USCe how you like, hard to see tournament teams at the moment. Arky can maybe sneak in if they can win on the road, but, well, that's usually been the issue with MA there.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 2:03 pm to GatorsGators
The conference might have 1 team to make it past the opening weekend of the NCAA tourney. Other than Kentucky, we all suck.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 2:05 pm to thunderbird1100
Why so down on A&M?
The rest are longshots, of course, but I wouldn't count out UGA or Ole Miss from going 11-7 and getting a 10+ seed.
The rest are longshots, of course, but I wouldn't count out UGA or Ole Miss from going 11-7 and getting a 10+ seed.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 2:06 pm to GatorsGators
LSU WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too high.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 2:07 pm to Gcockboi
quote:
Florida fricking sucks. GTFO with that shite. Oh wait you have 3 or 4 "quality losses". Your coach sucks as well.
You mad that we were right about y'all the whole time last year?
Good.
This post was edited on 12/19/16 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 12/19/16 at 2:24 pm to GatorsGators
Not bad. I wouldn't rank us that low and fully believe we will finish in the 5th-7th range but I can see your reasoning for having us where you do. I'd probably put us 8th right now in spite of that ugly loss to BC. We start 3 freshman and 2 sophomore so the only thing consistent about us right now is our inconsistency. We are talented though and adding Wiley makes us even more talented. You aren't going to want to play us later in the season when all these freshman get some experience and we start to gel.
Posted on 12/19/16 at 2:27 pm to marshallcotiger
Depending how we do in the next two games, we should move drastically up or stay where we are.
If we pull both out, we should be around 6
If we pull both out, we should be around 6
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