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[Baseball] RPI Needs Report
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:06 am
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:06 am
LINK
Cool little website to see what your team needs to do in relation to their RPI.
Spark notes:
-These are individual, without taking other team's possible future outcomes into consideration
-This is not including conference tournaments
-Florida could lose out and still be top 8 in RPI
-Battle for Mississippi: Ole Miss needs to win 6/7 to become top 8, Mississippi State cannot make the top 8, even if it wins out.
-LSU, Vandy, Florida, USC, A&M and Ole Miss can all make top 8
ETA: Baseball polls
Cool little website to see what your team needs to do in relation to their RPI.
Spark notes:
-These are individual, without taking other team's possible future outcomes into consideration
-This is not including conference tournaments
-Florida could lose out and still be top 8 in RPI
-Battle for Mississippi: Ole Miss needs to win 6/7 to become top 8, Mississippi State cannot make the top 8, even if it wins out.
-LSU, Vandy, Florida, USC, A&M and Ole Miss can all make top 8
ETA: Baseball polls
This post was edited on 5/5/16 at 10:32 am
7
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:38 am to cbi8
So why do they wait until the Sunday afternoon after everyone has finished their tournaments to announce the national seeds if they aren't taken into consideration (according to your link)?
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:41 am to cbi8
quote:
Mississippi State cannot make the top 8, even if it wins out.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:46 am to cbi8
quote:
Mississippi State cannot make the top 8, even if it wins out.
The cool thing is it doesn't matter. Take 2/3 in the final three series and State is a National Seed.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:50 am to cbi8
quote:
-LSU, Vandy, Florida, USC, A&M and Ole Miss can all make top 8
Can they? Too many head to head match ups would prevent teams from meeting the wins needed in the report.
Edit: They all can individually, but they all cannot together.
This post was edited on 5/5/16 at 9:53 am
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:51 am to Farmer1906
quote:
Can they? Too many head to head match ups would prevent teams from meeting the wins needed in the report.
ETA: They can all make it individually, not collectively.
This post was edited on 5/5/16 at 9:53 am
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:53 am to Farmer1906
Individually, each team can. Together, they all can't.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:53 am to Realistic Ag
My edit, the next edit, and the next post all done at the same time. 
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:54 am to Diamondawg
No way LSU makes top 8, regional host is still on table.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:55 am to nicholastiger
I agree. No way LSU goes 11-1.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:55 am to cbi8
It is a neat tool, but what it can only statistically consider what an individual team does. While MSU cannot reach the top 8 on their own, it is very possible that they could if they take care of their own business, and say, NC State or Ole Miss has a rough ending.
Right now, the RPI for 8th place (NC State) is .6055
Clemson is 9th at .5997
UCSB is 10th at .5996
Those two teams are in a virtual tie, only 1 ten thousandth of a point away.
Mississippi State is 11th, but sits at .5954, that's actually a decent margin behind UCSB. MSU's big problem is that the teams they are playing down the stretch aren't going to give them a huge jump. For example, winning 2/3 over a decent Alabama team on the road last week in a game was worth approximately .0043 to the RPI. However, winning 2/3 over Missouri this weekend would be worth approximately a .0016 jump. Auburn and Arkansas series are about the same. As Boyd states, it is impossible that with such little opportunity, MSU could get to the .6055 threshold in 10 games against weak competition.
To me, the important number is what is the historic RPI of the 8th place team.
2015: .5988
2014: .5947
2013: .6105
2012: .6044
2011: .5933
Over the past five years, the mean RPI of the 8th place team has been .6003 and the median has been .5988. MSU winning 2/3 of their remaining series would be worth approximately .0065, which would put them around .6009. In 3 of the last 5 years, that would be good enough for 8th place.
Right now, the RPI for 8th place (NC State) is .6055
Clemson is 9th at .5997
UCSB is 10th at .5996
Those two teams are in a virtual tie, only 1 ten thousandth of a point away.
Mississippi State is 11th, but sits at .5954, that's actually a decent margin behind UCSB. MSU's big problem is that the teams they are playing down the stretch aren't going to give them a huge jump. For example, winning 2/3 over a decent Alabama team on the road last week in a game was worth approximately .0043 to the RPI. However, winning 2/3 over Missouri this weekend would be worth approximately a .0016 jump. Auburn and Arkansas series are about the same. As Boyd states, it is impossible that with such little opportunity, MSU could get to the .6055 threshold in 10 games against weak competition.
To me, the important number is what is the historic RPI of the 8th place team.
2015: .5988
2014: .5947
2013: .6105
2012: .6044
2011: .5933
Over the past five years, the mean RPI of the 8th place team has been .6003 and the median has been .5988. MSU winning 2/3 of their remaining series would be worth approximately .0065, which would put them around .6009. In 3 of the last 5 years, that would be good enough for 8th place.
This post was edited on 5/5/16 at 9:59 am
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:55 am to Farmer1906
Was wondering when you would get in here, Farmer. Knew you would enjoy this.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:57 am to anc
Good stuff as always, anc
Posted on 5/5/16 at 9:58 am to cbi8
quote:
Was wondering when you would get in here, Farmer. Knew you would enjoy this.
Boyd's World is the shite. We've been talking RBI needs for a few weeks now on the A&M baseball thread. Very useful tool, but it has its limitations.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 10:09 am to Farmer1906
Exaclty. I still don't see why OM is so high w/ their only good series win (up until a week ago) was UL.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 10:25 am to Big4Dawg
quote:
Exaclty. I still don't see why OM is so high w/ their only good series win (up until a week ago) was UL.
quote:
An institution’s RPI ranking consists of three factors that are weighted as follows:
1. Division I Winning Percentage -- 25 percent of the RPI
2. Opponents’ Winning Percentage -- 50 percent of the RPI
3. Opponents’ Opponents’ Winning Percentage -- 25 percent of the
RPI
A quick comparison of OM & MSU.
Win %
OM (0.7391)
MSU (0.6778)
Opp Win %
OM (0.5746)
MSU (0.5808)
Opp Opp Win% - who the hell knows?
Just looking at 75% of the rating OM leads .4721 to .4599.
Then you add in the bonus points.
quote:
Starting in 1997, bonus points were added to a team's original RPI based on ROAD WINS against teams ranked in the top 75 of the original RPI. Penalty points are accessed for HOME LOSSES against teams ranked in the bottom 75 of the original RPI. There are three levels of bonus and penalty points based on whether the opponent is ranked in the top (or bottom) 25, second 25 or third 25.
I don't want to get too far in to it but MSU gets knocked for losing to Eastern Kentucky.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 10:26 am to Farmer1906
quote:
I don't want to get too far in to it but MSU gets knocked for losing to Eastern Kentucky.
frick that game.
Posted on 5/5/16 at 10:29 am to cbi8
CBN poll got me rustled as frick this morning
Posted on 5/5/16 at 10:29 am to cbi8
Awesome chart and thank you for the spark notes 
Posted on 5/5/16 at 10:30 am to reggierayreb
quote:
CBN poll got me rustled as frick this morning
It is so much different than the other 5
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