Started By
Message
re: Baseball Polls - May 18
Posted on 5/18/15 at 4:15 pm to Emergent C Steve
Posted on 5/18/15 at 4:15 pm to Emergent C Steve
quote:
If you don't take human polls into account at all, here would be your top eight: UCLA, LSU, TCU, Miami, Florida, Dallas Baptist, Missouri State and Texas A&M. Louisville and Illinois are left out in the cold. Not saying this is good or bad.
That would be a joke. Dallas Baptist and Mizzou St gets it over us? Cards finished 25-5 in the ACC (best league record in ACC history) with I believe 16 or 17 top 50 wins. Hopefully this wont be taken into account
Locks- LSU, UCLA, TCU, Louisville
This post was edited on 5/18/15 at 4:17 pm
1
Posted on 5/18/15 at 4:16 pm to bubbz
There are arguements for either side (2 vs 3, MV or not, does #1 RPI matter, how important is SOS, winning the conference etc.). In the end we don't know how the comittee will sort things out.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 4:20 pm to Farmer1906
One thing I've learned from the committee over the years, they put a emphasis on different stats each year. One year its RPI, the next it's out of conference SOS, ETC. Always fricking changes.
It wouldn't shock me to see Auburn get hosed and not make the tournament. Happened to LSU in 2011 with a very similar resume.
It wouldn't shock me to see Auburn get hosed and not make the tournament. Happened to LSU in 2011 with a very similar resume.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 4:31 pm to bubbz
quote:
It wouldn't shock me to see Auburn get hosed and not make the tournament. Happened to LSU in 2011 with a very similar resume
I'm not sure I consider that being hosed. 4 games under .500 in conference is pretty bad, but almost eveyrthing else looks good.
I broke down some of the #s in another thread. LINK /
Posted on 5/18/15 at 4:38 pm to bubbz
Read this on another board.
That basically ruins any chance of hosting a super.
This may sound like a dumb question, but can you be a national seed and not host a super, assuming you win the regional. Similarly to some one seeds don't host regionals.
quote:
Mo State plays at the St. Louis Cardinals AA stadium. The AA team will be at home the weekend of super regionals so they could not host it even if deserved. No other decent places to play in Springfield, Mo. They were lucky the Cards are on the road for the first round.
That basically ruins any chance of hosting a super.
This may sound like a dumb question, but can you be a national seed and not host a super, assuming you win the regional. Similarly to some one seeds don't host regionals.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 4:50 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
This may sound like a dumb question, but can you be a national seed and not host a super, assuming you win the regional. Similarly to some one seeds don't host regionals.
Yes, and I'm sure the NCAA would pair them with the regional hosted by the first team left out of the Top8 in this case.
I looked at the AA team's schedule. They could play a DH on that Friday followed by an early game Saturday to facilitate a Saturday-Monday Super Regional since the Cardinals are off on Monday. Hammons Field is named after the alumnus who funded the entire construction of the park, so Mizzou State could probably make that happen.
This post was edited on 5/18/15 at 4:51 pm
Posted on 5/18/15 at 4:52 pm to bubbz
quote:
I also think Missouri St is in the discussion if they win they conference tourney, but some in this thread don't believe that.
Yep, I absolutely don't. Winning the MVC tourney means 1 quality win since DBU and Bradley are on the other side of the bracket. Their RPI will likely drop even winning it because others around them will play and win quality games. And they have no resume other than RPI.
It would be a travemockery to make them a national seed
ETA: MSU plays a double elimination bracket with 11-44 SIU, 25-25 Ill St, and 24-31 Wich St. Then they play 1 game against the winner of the other side. I'm not sure how anyone thinks that helps their resume whatsoever
This post was edited on 5/18/15 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 5/18/15 at 5:01 pm to tmc94
quote:
Yep, I absolutely don't.
And you are absolutely biased if you cannot acknowledge it.
Now, would MizSt deserve a Top 8 seed over A&M? Nope. But this is college baseball and the committee's agenda we are talking about here.
These decisions are not entirely about fairness. It can certainly happen.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 5:04 pm to Jwho77
There isn't a single thing on their resume that makes them look like a national seed. I doubt they even get brought up in the committee meeting
Posted on 5/18/15 at 5:08 pm to tmc94
quote:
I doubt they even get brought up in the committee meeting
Posted on 5/18/15 at 5:13 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
I'm not sure I consider that being hosed. 4 games under .500 in conference is pretty bad, but almost eveyrthing else looks good.
I broke down some of the #s in another thread
I was more or less referring to LSU's rpi from that season. Last team to get in that year was St Johns, who had like a 50+ rpi.
quote:
Mo State plays at the St. Louis Cardinals AA stadium. The AA team will be at home the weekend of super regionals so they could not host it even if deserved. No other decent places to play in Springfield, Mo. They were lucky the Cards are on the road for the first round.
Well that's interesting, sucks for them, but I think you're right, they won't get a national seed if that's the case.
quote:
Now, would MizSt deserve a Top 8 seed over A&M? Nope. But this is college baseball and the committee's agenda we are talking about here.
This..Missouri St did win 2 of 3 against DBU. Missouri St also has the #8 RPI. Those are two items that are working in Missouri St. favor. The committee has done favors in the past for the Big 10 getting a National Seed. It certainly isn't out the realm of possibility. Committee does things trying to make the sport more popular. This is why I think you will see one of these schools get a national seed. Just because the resume isn't very good, doesn't mean it wont happen. The committee will always do what's in the best interest of growing the college game.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 5:25 pm to bubbz
There was far more logic to the B1G reaches than y'all give credit for. The northern schools have great difficulty scheduling midweek and are forced on the road early in the season. It seriously deflated their RPIs so reaching made sense. There is no such reason to reach for MSU.
I wish y'all would look at their resume rather than just looking at RPI. It's completely devoid of any NS qualities. Examine it and then honestly make the case for them. One series all year is not enough to make a national seed.
I honestly think if you compare them to say Oklahoma State or Houston, who I think we'd all agree are not really in the discussion, you'd find them lacking.
I wish y'all would look at their resume rather than just looking at RPI. It's completely devoid of any NS qualities. Examine it and then honestly make the case for them. One series all year is not enough to make a national seed.
I honestly think if you compare them to say Oklahoma State or Houston, who I think we'd all agree are not really in the discussion, you'd find them lacking.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 5:28 pm to tmc94
quote:
I wish y'all would look at their resume rather than just looking at RPI. I
1.) It's not y'all, it's the committee.
2.) They are 6-3 versus the RPI Top 50, so that does help them a little bit if the committee wants to justify them as a Top 8.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 5:34 pm to tmc94
tmc, that's what we are saying, it's the committee, not the resume. If you've been reading what I've posted, the committee will do what they can to diversify college baseball.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 5:54 pm to Jwho77
quote:
2.) They are 6-3 versus the RPI Top 50, so that does help them a little bit if the committee wants to justify them as a Top 8.
This is not a good thing. Every single other team in consideration has better numbers. It doesn't justify a national seed for them at all and is honestly a negative for them.
The committee is a bunch of y'alls. They aren't randos off the street. They are ADs that follow this. The basic premise of your argument is that they are completely unpredictable. But they aren't and they've never made a decision without a basic reason, not always one we agree with, but an actual reason nonetheless.
You literally can't look at MSU and find a singular reason to select them as a NS. They don't have an insanely good record. They don't have a bunch of quality wins. Their RPI is borderline (and likely will fall from here). They have a bad SOS. They have the fewest top 50 wins of any team in consideration. I mean when the best thing y'all can say about them is they won the 5th best RPI conference and won 2 of 3 vs the only other decent team, it's not really saying much.
Again, I'll ask, if MSU is in consideration, how can you select them ahead of UH? Houston won a far superior conference, won more top 50 games than MSU even played, even have 5 top 50 RPI series wins, and a far superior SOS, What metric is MSU superior to them?
This post was edited on 5/18/15 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 5/18/15 at 6:06 pm to tmc94
quote:
Again, I'll ask, if MSU is in consideration, how can you select them ahead of UH?
Two of us have answered it several times but you don't want to hear it. Go listen to the podcast from D1Baseball from yesterday:
LINK
Around the 13 minute mark. They will help explain how it can easily happen.
Posted on 5/18/15 at 9:33 pm to Farmer1906
:jump1: :jump2: :jump1: :jump2: Geaux Tigers
Posted on 5/18/15 at 11:00 pm to bubbz
Missouri St. is 5-2 against the top 25.
3-0 this season against the SEC.
I don't think the baseball committee looks at Top 50 as much as Top 25. And they do currently have a top 8 RPI, and finished 18-3 in conference play.
Summary, I believe that Missouri State will get a national seed over Dallas Baptist. The committee likes giving national seeds to new teams. So it's between MSU and DBU.
My guesses:
LSU (Conference winner, top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
UCLA (Conference winner, top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
Louisville (Conference winner, top 8 polls)
Florida (Top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
Miami (Top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
TCU (Conference winner, top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
Missouri State (Conference winner, top 8 RPI, top 10 poll average)
Illinois (Best record in the nation, conference winner, top 8 polls)
Lot of baseball to play with the conference tournaments left. My list is if the committee had to choose today.
Sorry A&M 8-7 record in the last 15. Only won 1 out of the last 5 series.
3-0 this season against the SEC.
I don't think the baseball committee looks at Top 50 as much as Top 25. And they do currently have a top 8 RPI, and finished 18-3 in conference play.
Summary, I believe that Missouri State will get a national seed over Dallas Baptist. The committee likes giving national seeds to new teams. So it's between MSU and DBU.
My guesses:
LSU (Conference winner, top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
UCLA (Conference winner, top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
Louisville (Conference winner, top 8 polls)
Florida (Top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
Miami (Top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
TCU (Conference winner, top 8 RPI, top 8 polls)
Missouri State (Conference winner, top 8 RPI, top 10 poll average)
Illinois (Best record in the nation, conference winner, top 8 polls)
Lot of baseball to play with the conference tournaments left. My list is if the committee had to choose today.
Sorry A&M 8-7 record in the last 15. Only won 1 out of the last 5 series.
This post was edited on 5/19/15 at 2:11 am
Posted on 5/22/15 at 7:05 am to bubbz
Posted on 5/22/15 at 7:20 am to Farmer1906
quote:
A little bump. TCU now listed as bubble out. It may or may not happen, but I told you so.
So LSU, A&M, and Florida now from the SEC as national seeds. Hopefully, we get at least 3 teams in Omaha.
Page 4 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News